Showing posts with label covid 19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label covid 19. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 02, 2021

ID Cards v Social Security

Solving two problems with one plan?


ID cards for Britain are in the news as Boris contemplates getting out of the Covid emergency and hitting the sunny uplands of freedom.  So, what’s all the fuss about?  On the surface it seems a no-brainer.  You get your Covid vaccine, you apply for a card (with photo ID - maybe just like a driving license), you go to the pub or cinema and show your card, you get in.  Painless? Were it only so simple? 



The British aversion to anything that even smells like, let alone looks like a government required ID card has a long history. Oddly up until 2011 there were cards, first introduced during World War II. The legislation requiring them was allowed to lapse. However, if you ask John Q Public they will persuade you that ID cards are a EU invention and, as we know, anything that smacks of Europe is simply toxic. So, when Boris semi-suggested that ID cards might be useful in the post Covid world you might have thought that he suggested incest as a recreational activity or a penchant for sodomy as a prerequisite to register to vote. 



What has always struck me as odd is the public’s lack of understanding of how ID cards affect illegal immigration.  The British, chiefly the English, are obsessed with the idea that illegal immigrants are flooding the country and stretching an already over-stretched public service, milking the tax payer in the process. This single issue was the most telling in the Brexit debate, particularly for the over 50’s who did most of the voting.  The English have always had an ambivalent relationship with “Johnny Foreigner” or Wogs as they used to be known.  Most “oldies” still subscribe to the theory that Wogs begin at Dover, the French are dirty and duplicitous, the Germans bombed our chippy, the Spanish and Italians are just lazy Dagos and the Greeks are - well they are subject to all the ills known to mankind.  Best just get rid of them and keep England for the English.  Lest you think I’m joking, I’m not.  Most polls will show that my summation is just about right.  So, you might well think, the first folks who would be all in for ID cards would be the Brexit supporting numpties who voted to get out of the EU in the first place.



Error.



This is the amazing bit.  ID cards would go a long way towards eliminating fraud for benefits.  No ID card, no benefits and also no access to the NHS.  Solves a lot of problems without much pain.  Why not just do it?



Boris succinctly puts the view forward that it’s just not the done thing.  It’s too much like the state interfering in the rights of the people to be assh****. (That’s Tory policy in case you were in any doubt.)  Despite the fact that it makes a lot of sense and is relatively easy to do, Boris is very sceptical and for all the wrong reasons.



Contrast this with the Social Security system in the US. It is almost impossible to work legally in the US without a social security number. (That is not to say, of course, that the black economy of cash in hand payments to low paid, low skilled (perhaps illegal) immigrants is not known or not a problem.)  But, The Social Security system goes a long way towards bringing everyone into the known economy.

Latest news has Boris and the Tories warming to the idea of some kind of ID system once we exit from the Covid nightmare.  Let’s hope the reports are close to the mark: I for one would welcome a system which not only help people access their local pub, but also helps to mitigate the worst excess of an illegal immigration.



Sunday, May 31, 2020

Ferguson's Last Hurrah




Niall Ferguson Commentator
Sunday May 24 2020  The Sunday Times



My crystal ball missed Brexit but got Donald Trump



Those who make predictions must keep a tally. So how did I do?



It has been nearly 4½ years since I began writing this column, which works out at roughly 240,000 words altogether. As these will be my last words in these pages, it’s time to look back and take stock. If part of your job is to be a pundit then, as the Pennsylvania University political scientist Philip Tetlock argues in Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, you need to keep score.”



I have tried to find out why Ferguson is leaving the paper but can find nothing at present. This is a shame. I always read his column, mostly because he writes well and often offers an alternative analysis to the generally accepted view. 



Ferguson reminds us that on the two big issues during his sojourn at the Sunday Time, namely Brexit and Donald Trump, he got it wrong. 



On Brexit he wrote that the idea that Britain can separate itself from Europe is an illusion. Without the UK the future of Europe would be one of escalating instability.



Bonking Boris (even in the middle of a Covid 19 crisis) is nothing if he is not at least consistent. News today is that he rejects (again and as usual) any extension to the Brexit deadline. This is despite the news that Michel Barnier (EU Brexit supremo) has been touting the idea of a two year extension to all and sundry opposition parties in the UK. 



He reminds us that he called Brexiteers Angloonies and happy morons  and he predicted a stairway to hell or at least a recession and he got it wrong.  Full marks for fessing up!



I wish he had spent some time explaining why and how he got it so wrong. 



Meanwhile Boris government seems unable to function without his favourite flunky:






And whilst the bodies pile up Boris learns to play the violin whilst his government goes up in smoke. And the hits just keep on coming! 









Niall hints at the problem.  Perhaps I can help him out.  The record seems fairly clear.  The folks who voted for Brexit were as he describes.  Donald Trump simply borrowed their play book and ran the same offence.



Not beholden to the folks who voted, I have no problem in reminding everyone that in general Brexit happened because the British public (or at least a large proportion of it) were too stupid to realise what Brexit really means.  They still don’t, for no matter how much Boris blusters real Brexit will not happen until at least the end of the year.  By that time we may be so stupefied by Covid 19 that the idiots who voted for Brexit may have forgotten and simply blame the fact that we are going to hell in a handcart on the virus.  If Boris is very lucky, this may work.  If not he’s had it.  Niall reminds the readers that he advised David Cameron (remember him?) to reject the risible terms that the EU leaders offered him in February on EU migrants “eligibility for benefits”.  He should have called their bluff and backed Brexit.  (put that in your pipe and smoke it Merkle/Macron!)  Alas, he dithered and let Boris and Michael Gove out-think-out-manouever-and-out-smart him.  Result: the inmates are now in charge of the asylum.



Turning to Niall’s Trumpian analysis:  in April 2016 he predicted the bursting of the Trump bubble.  Sometimes he went against the prevailing mood by reminding us that Trump has the face that fits the ugly mood in America (very prophetic)  -mainly because the Republican voters are actually worse off than in the previous presidential election.



Ferguson says. “I was against Trump.  I signed  the “never Trump” letter.  He condemned Trump’s open expressions of racial prejudice and xenophobia.  But, he also clearly saw the appeal:  the white middle-classes may stay at home, the young won’t be bothered to turn out for Hillary and the older voters will turn out for Trump,just as their English counterparts did for Brexit.



To celebrate his first year, Ferguson compares the chances of Trump with the Chicago Cubs - the outsiders who had just won the World Series..  he can win if there is a differential in turnout between his supporters and Clinton’s in the battleground states comparable to the age and ethnicity-based differentials in the UK referendum.  



That’s just about what happened.



The tragedy is that the old duffers who propelled Trump to the White House and the and Nigel Farage into cloud-cuckoo land euphoria, will not be around to reap the whirlwind.  The Covid 19 may well have the last laugh on Brexit and Trump.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Keep Busy to Beat Covid


Keep Busy

Private Frazer in Dad’s Army: "We’re doomed".

Trying times for us all. Mal’s best advice: keep busy if you can. The newspapers are full of advice on how to do this. So: read a newspaper – on-line if you can’t get to the shops to get one. Don’t forget, when I say newspaper I mean a real newspaper. You can get trial versions of most dailies like the Eastern Daily Press – great for local news – the Times – the Guardian – the Mail – The Mirror – The Telegraph and yes, even The Sun (better than nothing), check out the Kansas City Star!

On Sunday I always get the Sunday Times and have done for more than forty years. The 22 March edition is packed with stuff about the virus, as you may well imagine. Be sure to check out Jeremy Clarkson’s article, very obtuse yet funny and Ron Liddle just hits the spot.

Next: get out if you can. I have a large garden so I can walk about with impunity. We are building a fence for our next door neighbour. It’s only small and its only purpose is to separate our tiny front gardens, but at least we are out in the fresh air. We plan to drive to Bacton and walk along the seafront – it’s free and healthy – just avoid other people if you can.

Read a book: check out the local library to see if they have an on-line ordering system – you may not even have to physically go there. If not, sneak into you local charity shop, they will have many books for next to nothing. Locally, you can check out the Bookstore at the Bure Valley Railway – lots of books and cheap! (works for me)!

 I managed to track down one of my favourite “end-of-the-world-scenario books, Alas Babylon, which I was, with quite a bit of finagling able to get an electronic version of and download it to my tablet.  An excellent read – especially for the 12 and under age groups. - not much violence or sex. Others in the same mode might be Z for Zachariah and On the Beach, Brother in the Land, The Postman ( Kevin Costner made it into a film much maligned by the critics, but far better than his Waterworld fiasco ) and The Day After Tomorrow (a particularly poor book!).

(something called the open library has extensive ebooks in read-as-you -go versions, OK for me because I read so fast that I can usually finish one in a day – doesn’t work with War and Peace, however, believe me I have tried)


Learn something: I’m currently working on an on-line course to learn Latin.

Check on your neighbours. I have the phone numbers of my immediate neighbours so I can call them if I have to. I see them from a distance most days.

Stay in touch with your family. On Mother’s Day (here in the UK) people might be tempted to visit their mums. Don’t. Just make do with a phone call or Skype.

Write something on your blog., or start one if you haven’t already. Check mine out at: https://malkauffman.blogspot.com/