Sunday
May 24 2020 The Sunday Times
“My
crystal ball missed Brexit but got Donald Trump
Those
who make predictions must keep a tally. So how did I do?
It
has been nearly 4½ years since I began writing this column, which
works out at roughly 240,000 words altogether. As these will be my
last words in these pages, it’s time to look back and take stock.
If part of your job is to be a pundit then, as the Pennsylvania
University political scientist Philip Tetlock argues in
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, you need to keep
score.”
I
have tried to find out why Ferguson is leaving the paper but can find
nothing at present. This is a shame. I always read his column, mostly
because he writes well and often offers an alternative analysis to
the generally accepted view.
Ferguson
reminds us that on the two big issues during his sojourn at the
Sunday Time, namely Brexit and Donald Trump, he got it wrong.
On
Brexit he wrote that the idea that Britain can separate itself from
Europe is an illusion. Without the UK the future of Europe would be
one of escalating instability.
Bonking
Boris (even in the middle of a Covid 19 crisis) is nothing if he is
not at least consistent. News today is that he rejects (again and as
usual) any extension to the Brexit deadline. This is despite the news
that Michel Barnier (EU Brexit supremo) has been touting the idea of
a two year extension to all and sundry opposition parties in the UK.
He
reminds us that he called Brexiteers Angloonies and happy morons
and he predicted a stairway to hell or at least a recession and he
got it wrong. Full marks for fessing up!
I
wish he had spent some time explaining why and how he got it so
wrong.
Meanwhile
Boris government seems unable to function without his favourite
flunky:
And
whilst the bodies pile up Boris learns to play the violin whilst his
government goes up in smoke. And the hits just keep on coming!
Niall
hints at the problem. Perhaps I can help him out. The
record seems fairly clear. The folks who voted for Brexit were
as he describes. Donald Trump simply borrowed their play book
and ran the same offence.
Not
beholden to the folks who voted, I have no problem in reminding
everyone that in general Brexit happened because the British public
(or at least a large proportion of it) were too stupid to realise
what Brexit really means. They still don’t, for no matter how
much Boris blusters real Brexit will not happen until at least the
end of the year. By that time we may be so stupefied by Covid
19 that the idiots who voted for Brexit may have forgotten and simply
blame the fact that we are going to hell in a handcart on the virus.
If Boris is very lucky, this may work. If not he’s had it.
Niall reminds the readers that he advised David Cameron (remember
him?) to reject the risible terms that the EU leaders offered him in
February on EU migrants “eligibility for benefits”. He
should have called their bluff and backed Brexit. (put that in
your pipe and smoke it Merkle/Macron!) Alas, he dithered and
let Boris and Michael Gove out-think-out-manouever-and-out-smart
him. Result: the inmates are now in charge of the asylum.
Turning
to Niall’s Trumpian analysis: in April 2016 he predicted the
bursting of the Trump bubble. Sometimes he went against the
prevailing mood by reminding us that Trump has the face that fits the
ugly mood in America (very prophetic) -mainly because the
Republican voters are actually worse off than in the previous
presidential election.
Ferguson
says. “I was against Trump. I signed the “never
Trump” letter. He condemned Trump’s open expressions of
racial prejudice and xenophobia. But, he also clearly saw the
appeal: the white middle-classes may stay at home, the young
won’t be bothered to turn out for Hillary and the older voters will
turn out for Trump,just as their English counterparts did for Brexit.
To
celebrate his first year, Ferguson compares the chances of Trump with
the Chicago Cubs - the outsiders who had just won the World Series..
he can win if there is a differential in turnout between his
supporters and Clinton’s in the battleground states comparable to
the age and ethnicity-based differentials in the UK referendum.
That’s
just about what happened.
The
tragedy is that the old duffers who propelled Trump to the White
House and the and Nigel Farage into cloud-cuckoo land euphoria, will
not be around to reap the whirlwind. The Covid 19 may well have
the last laugh on Brexit and Trump.
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