Price of Gas and Pork

 The price of gas is a poor indicator of how well a country's economy is performing. Think I'm wrong? Check out the gas prices in Venezuela. They can't give the stuff away.

In the USA gas, or petrol as it is called in the UK, has a checkered price history. When I was first buying the stuff in Kansas City, we often had what was affectionately known as a gas war. Gas got as low as 12 cents a gallon. Happy days! But, not to last. In those days I'm fairly sure the USA was self-sufficient in gas. Before OPEC, gas was plentiful, cheap and readily available. Furthermore gas prices have always been variable from state to state. California gas prices could make you cry?! Currently it's at 4.40 a gallon. It's 2.43 in KC. In the UK, a litre (4.4 liters per gallon) is £1.25 Making a gallon of gas about 5 bucks. What is clear is that the price of gas is a poor indicator of almost anything. Yet, it is a question which concerns the American public and folks in the UK I can assure you.

Gas is a function of the price of energy in general. Your packet of Oscar Meyer bacon has gas as a function of its retail price. The farmer who raises the pig, the slaughterhouse which processes the meat, the factory that slices and packs the meat in a carbon-based container, the bacon curing process, the advertising budget of Oscar Meyer, the consumer's trip to the store to buy the bacon all are components that decide the price of Bacon. Fixing the actual reason for the recent rise in bacon prices to the mast of a particular policy or politician is whilst very probably self-satisfying to some folks and an anathema to others overall not very sane, relevant or important.

Clearly, for a variety of reasons, some good, some possibly spurious, food and gas prices are only going in one direction. This is likely to continue regardless of who is in office.

American consumers need to wake up and smell the coffee. In the UK coffee it's between 9 and 14 £ per kilo (2.2 pounds) in the USA it's about 8.50 dollars a pound- that makes it about 3 bucks more expensive in the US. Your Starbucks is going to get more expensive. Inevitable. If you are a big coffee drinker, I suggest you switch to tea!

Both the US and UK have been cheerfully living high-on-the-hog (pardon the pun)by effectively ripping off the commodity producing nations. They used to do it very nicely with gas until the advent of OPEC and the demise of Texas gold. With pork, the Chinese consumer is now mopping up any cheap pork and the US consumer is paying the price. As more Chinese eat bacon and pork, the cost to the US or UK consumer is going to go up.  It’s Economics 101.

As a result of the Biden administration's conversion to a greener energy policy, the consumer is going to continue to pick up most of the tab for the energy component of the rise in commodity prices.

BTW (an aside) A US lab today reported that they are on the verge of the Holy Grail, commercially viable nuclear fusion which will make arguments about the price of almost everything redundant. Unfortunately, this may well not happen until beyond our life-time.  Our grand or great, great grand-kids may well look back on this and wonder what all the fuss was about!

Until fusion comes on-stream the price of energy will continue to sky-rocket and we (the consumer) will bear the brunt of any price rises.  This will be true no matter where you live.  The idea that the U.S. can insulate itself from the global economy is a pipe-dream.  This was at the core one of the policies of Donald Trump.  MAGA - make America Great Again - presumes that somehow America  stopped being great at some time.  It plays to the same audience as Charles Lindberg’s tribal appeal called America First before WWII.

When the New York Times interviewed Donald Trump in March 2016, one of the reporters, David Sanger, suggested that Trump’s foreign policy could be summed up as “America First”—“a mistrust of many foreigners, both our adversaries and some of our allies, a sense that they’ve been freeloading off of us for many years.”  

“Correct. O.K.? That’s fine,” Trump responded. Sanger pressed him to be sure. “I’ll tell you—you’re getting close,” Trump said, in his typically staccato style. “Not isolationist, I’m not isolationist, but I am ‘America First.’ So, I like the expression. I’m ‘America First.’ ”

This is one factor is driving the US consumer into fits of apoplectic rage. Even with sleepy Joe onboard the focus is on the consumer and their perception of the meaning of America First in consumer affairs.. What Donald and Joe forget to tell the electorate is that at the bottom line politicians of whatever persuasion can be powerless to affect the price of either gas or bacon. They can, of course, and often do tinker around the edges by tweaking the tax or import duties on particular products. This may assuage the public for a bit and effectively kick any real decision down the road, but, and this should come as no surprise, all politicians do this all the time. After all, why take a potentially awkward decision or even worse a potentially vote-losing one when you can effectively b***s*** the public and do nothing at all.

Addendum

The withdrawal from Afghanistan has been overshadowing everything else in the news.  Neither Trump, Biden or Boris come out looking particularly well.  Joe Biden has taken a pasting, and rightly so.  People wanted out of Afghanistan, but thought that the folks organising it might have put a bit of thought and effort into it.  The UK media are blaming Joe for not seeing the demise of the Afghan army as a real possibility.  They are probably right.

Brexit (again)

 

BOJO Bulldust

The illiterati remain obsessed with chanting “Brexit is done, get over it and move on!”  Unfortunately this is a classic case of, “can you smell that stuff you shovelling”!

Brexit is not done and is unlikely to ever be done. Current rows about the status of Northern Ireland serve only to underline the point. The choice of the majority who voted for Brexit must be respected, yet in the country in particular politicians are placed in  an almost insurmountable position. Everybody knows that Boris is a chancer, after all it's part of his charm. But when cornered, his true colours often glimmer through the mist. Don't forget :he left David Cameron thinking that he might support the Brexit deal and campaign accordingly only to overnight become a committed leaver. Bottom line, Boris is a shuttlecock floating towards the end line and hoping to land in and not out. Or, should it be the other way around? Who knows with Boris?

The current spat with the French is as unedifying as it was predictable. Moron Macron sees votes in a bit of roastbeeefs bashing and Boris would love to wear the Henry V mantle and give the froggies six of the best - trousers down. . "Monge too" as Del boy would say. All good clean fun you may say. On the day a delay to unlocking is now delayed for four weeks, and Boris has so annoyed the speaker that he might have to take six of the best in the Commons :it's not surprising that the Boris balls up of Ireland has slipped down the list of things to deal with. Let's just kick it down the road again. 

As attractive as this might seem it's, in reality, a fantasy. 

For, the Irish question has been kicked down the road so often, surely the ball is flatter than a witch's chest. But, is there any chance Boris actually has a plan and knows more than we do? Not likely. 

If he does it's probably a dose of electoral reality. Successive Unionist led governments at Stormont have known that the day is coming when their electoral majority will disappear. Boris knows this as well. He knows as leader of the Conservative and Unionist party, he could never openly betray the Unionists. But, the present Northern Ireland deal provides for a plebiscite of the people of Northern Ireland if they wish to have a United Ireland. Maybe the arch chancer is happy to just waffle and bluster and wait for demographics to come to his rescue. 

Or, he has found that the EU, for all its blustering, can do little practically to annoy him.

Dealing with Dominic Cummings may actually cause him more problems than Brexit and NI combined, but that’s a story for another day.

News today is that the NI executive will be reconstituted as Sinn Fein agree to power sharing with the new ultra-right-wing Ulster Unionists.  As unrest grows on the street prior to the onset of the traditional marching season, Boris just ignores it.  After all, that’s what he did with NI to get a deal with the EU, so why not try it again? Then, next day Mr Poots , newly installed dup leader, resigns over a deal he did with sinn feinn to promote the Irish language. (a day is a long time in Irish politics) 

Boris reaction : spout more platitudes.

I watched a very interesting documentary about the founding of the Irish Free State. I suspect that few people know that the partition of Ireland was agreed by the British government to be a temporary situation. At that time even the NI unionists were on board with guarantees from the UK that they would be protected within a united Ireland. As we know, this did not happen and in the end the Irish were unwilling to be part of the commonwealth with the British monarch as Head of state. 

Now we see again that the unionists will not supinely countenance any kind of a united Ireland. And, as we approach the marching season, things are likely to get worse before they get better. 

Whose responsibility? 

Surely, it’s got to be Bonking Boris. 

ID Cards v Social Security

Solving two problems with one plan?

ID cards for Britain are in the news as Boris contemplates getting out of the Covid emergency and hitting the sunny uplands of freedom.  So, what’s all the fuss about?  On the surface it seems a no-brainer.  You get your Covid vaccine, you apply for a card (with photo ID - maybe just like a driving license), you go to the pub or cinema and show your card, you get in.  Painless? Were it only so simple? 

The British aversion to anything that even smells like, let alone looks like a government required ID card has a long history. Oddly up until 2011 there were cards, first introduced during World War II. The legislation requiring them was allowed to lapse. However, if you ask John Q Public they will persuade you that ID cards are a EU invention and, as we know, anything that smacks of Europe is simply toxic. So, when Boris semi-suggested that ID cards might be useful in the post Covid world you might have thought that he suggested incest as a recreational activity or a penchant for sodomy as a prerequisite to register to vote. 

What has always struck me as odd is the public’s lack of understanding of how ID cards affect illegal immigration.  The British, chiefly the English, are obsessed with the idea that illegal immigrants are flooding the country and stretching an already over-stretched public service, milking the tax payer in the process. This single issue was the most telling in the Brexit debate, particularly for the over 50’s who did most of the voting.  The English have always had an ambivalent relationship with “Johnny Foreigner” or Wogs as they used to be known.  Most “oldies” still subscribe to the theory that Wogs begin at Dover, the French are dirty and duplicitous, the Germans bombed our chippy, the Spanish and Italians are just lazy Dagos and the Greeks are - well they are subject to all the ills known to mankind.  Best just get rid of them and keep England for the English.  Lest you think I’m joking, I’m not.  Most polls will show that my summation is just about right.  So, you might well think, the first folks who would be all in for ID cards would be the Brexit supporting numpties who voted to get out of the EU in the first place.

Error.

This is the amazing bit.  ID cards would go a long way towards eliminating fraud for benefits.  No ID card, no benefits and also no access to the NHS.  Solves a lot of problems without much pain.  Why not just do it?

Boris succinctly puts the view forward that it’s just not the done thing.  It’s too much like the state interfering in the rights of the people to be assh****. (That’s Tory policy in case you were in any doubt.)  Despite the fact that it makes a lot of sense and is relatively easy to do, Boris is very sceptical and for all the wrong reasons.

Contrast this with the Social Security system in the US. It is almost impossible to work legally in the US without a social security number. (That is not to say, of course, that the black economy of cash in hand payments to low paid, low skilled (perhaps illegal) immigrants is not known or not a problem.)  But, The Social Security system goes a long way towards bringing everyone into the known economy.

Latest news has Boris and the Tories warming to the idea of some kind of ID system once we exit from the Covid nightmare.  Let’s hope the reports are close to the mark: I for one would welcome a system which not only help people access their local pub, but also helps to mitigate the worst excess of an illegal immigration.

Ferguson's Last Hurrah

Niall Ferguson Commentator

Sunday May 24 2020  The Sunday Times

“My crystal ball missed Brexit but got Donald Trump

Those who make predictions must keep a tally. So how did I do?

It has been nearly 4½ years since I began writing this column, which works out at roughly 240,000 words altogether. As these will be my last words in these pages, it’s time to look back and take stock. If part of your job is to be a pundit then, as the Pennsylvania University political scientist Philip Tetlock argues in Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, you need to keep score.”

I have tried to find out why Ferguson is leaving the paper but can find nothing at present. This is a shame. I always read his column, mostly because he writes well and often offers an alternative analysis to the generally accepted view. 

Ferguson reminds us that on the two big issues during his sojourn at the Sunday Time, namely Brexit and Donald Trump, he got it wrong. 

On Brexit he wrote that the idea that Britain can separate itself from Europe is an illusion. Without the UK the future of Europe would be one of escalating instability.

Bonking Boris (even in the middle of a Covid 19 crisis) is nothing if he is not at least consistent. News today is that he rejects (again and as usual) any extension to the Brexit deadline. This is despite the news that Michel Barnier (EU Brexit supremo) has been touting the idea of a two year extension to all and sundry opposition parties in the UK. 

He reminds us that he called Brexiteers Angloonies and happy morons  and he predicted a stairway to hell or at least a recession and he got it wrong.  Full marks for fessing up!

I wish he had spent some time explaining why and how he got it so wrong. 

Meanwhile Boris government seems unable to function without his favourite flunky:

https://www.ft.com/content/df904fd8-9f54-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

And whilst the bodies pile up Boris learns to play the violin whilst his government goes up in smoke. And the hits just keep on coming! 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-trade-talks-safeguards-government-human-rights-act-gove-a9535056.html 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-trade-talks-safeguards-government-human-rights-act-gove-a9535056.html 

Niall hints at the problem.  Perhaps I can help him out.  The record seems fairly clear.  The folks who voted for Brexit were as he describes.  Donald Trump simply borrowed their play book and ran the same offence.

Not beholden to the folks who voted, I have no problem in reminding everyone that in general Brexit happened because the British public (or at least a large proportion of it) were too stupid to realise what Brexit really means.  They still don’t, for no matter how much Boris blusters real Brexit will not happen until at least the end of the year.  By that time we may be so stupefied by Covid 19 that the idiots who voted for Brexit may have forgotten and simply blame the fact that we are going to hell in a handcart on the virus.  If Boris is very lucky, this may work.  If not he’s had it.  Niall reminds the readers that he advised David Cameron (remember him?) to reject the risible terms that the EU leaders offered him in February on EU migrants “eligibility for benefits”.  He should have called their bluff and backed Brexit.  (put that in your pipe and smoke it Merkle/Macron!)  Alas, he dithered and let Boris and Michael Gove out-think-out-manouever-and-out-smart him.  Result: the inmates are now in charge of the asylum.

Turning to Niall’s Trumpian analysis:  in April 2016 he predicted the bursting of the Trump bubble.  Sometimes he went against the prevailing mood by reminding us that Trump has the face that fits the ugly mood in America (very prophetic)  -mainly because the Republican voters are actually worse off than in the previous presidential election.

Ferguson says. “I was against Trump.  I signed  the “never Trump” letter.  He condemned Trump’s open expressions of racial prejudice and xenophobia.  But, he also clearly saw the appeal:  the white middle-classes may stay at home, the young won’t be bothered to turn out for Hillary and the older voters will turn out for Trump,just as their English counterparts did for Brexit.

To celebrate his first year, Ferguson compares the chances of Trump with the Chicago Cubs - the outsiders who had just won the World Series..  he can win if there is a differential in turnout between his supporters and Clinton’s in the battleground states comparable to the age and ethnicity-based differentials in the UK referendum.  

That’s just about what happened.

The tragedy is that the old duffers who propelled Trump to the White House and the and Nigel Farage into cloud-cuckoo land euphoria, will not be around to reap the whirlwind.  The Covid 19 may well have the last laugh on Brexit and Trump.

Bonking Boris Rules

Explaining Boris' success isn't as difficult as it might seem. 

Firstly, let's examine the opposition. There was the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbin. Corbin's Labour started with high hopes, mostly because at the previous election, called by Teresa May, they had done quite well. So well that the Tories were denied an overall majority and Corbo seemed to be quite popular with the electorate. He was a bit of a fresh face and the Labour vote held up in their strongholds. Enter the European elections of 2019. The Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats both did much better than Labour whose vote collapsed to about 11%. The Tories did even worse. The Labour bubble had truly burst. Therefore, entering the campaign Labour was struggling. Not only did their announced position on Brexit look outdated and irresponsible, but Corbo's aversion to taking sides - preferring to portray himself as an honest broker - now, with hindsight, only made him seem indecisive. Entering the campaign Labour clearly had a lot of work to do. 

Next, the Liberal Democrats. After a strong showing in the Euro elections, and with a new leader (Jo Swindon) in place things were looking promising for a real Lib - Dem revival. On policy, Jo unequivocally informed voters that if she won Brexit would be cancelled. This was a clear policy and put the Lib Dems diametrically in opposition to both the Tories and the Brexit Party. Rallying the support of remainders became the be all and end all of the Liberal Democrats. 

The Brexit Party, though only recently formed, and very much the Nigel Farage Party, were instrumental in delivering the Conservative victory. The day that Nigel got so scared by the Liberal Democrats that he decided to effectively opt out and pull his candidates in Conservative seats the election was effectively over and Christmas came early for Boris. 

The Scottish National party were adept at being the fly in the ointment. In doing so, and in particular avoiding the temptation to do deals with Labour or the Liberal Democrats, they maintained their racial purity and cleaned up north of the border. 

The fly in most other people's ointment was supplied by the Democratic Unionists. For Teresa May they were the lifeboat that allowed her to stagger from crisis to crisis in persuit of the illusion of her Brexit deal. Some might argue that they were the conscience of the Tories and kept them from a really bad deal. This holdeth no water as Boris was to conclude after he cut them loose in making his deal with the EU. They went on to lose ground to all the other NI parties in the Boris election. 

Other smaller parties such as the Greens (one MP) plaid crymu (a few MPs) and Sinn Fein (again a few successes - chiefly at the expense of the Ulster UNIONISTS) - Never have understood why they are allowed to stand in elections when they refuse to take their seats. Crazy. 

Analysis 

Much has been made of the imminent demise of the Labour Party. Their election strategy was flawed and chaotic. The voters simply wanted to get Brexit done and Labour had no answer to this simplistic (though essentially flawed) slogan. Therefore, they were embarrassed and humbled by the collapse of their core vote, and confused the public over and over with slogans and proposals which were essentially unrealistic and unbelievable. Boris believes that he can hold on to these new Conservative voters. Time will tell. 

The Tories fell in the Brexit barrel of excrement and came up smelling of roses. They hijacked the Brexit Party vote and used the Herr Goebbles technique of simply repeating the same lie over and over to great success. The lie, of course, is that brexit will be done. False. Only the first stage will be done and the tough stuff is yet to come. Moving on, Boris has boxed himself in by ruling out any extension to the implementation period. My guess is that the same numpties who thought Britain was leaving the EU the day after the original vote will again be made boringly numb by the blank cheque they handed Boris. How the Tories handle the failure of expectations will colour 2020. Bang on! 

The Brexit Party will hang around vainly trying to hold Boris to a pure Brexit, then disappear. The Scots will revolt. They may hold more cards than they think. By selling out the Ulster Unionists, Boris may find, too late, that he needs them to prevent the Irish from leaving the Union. The Liberal Democrats will lick their wounds and return to the grassroots campaigning they are good at. They will revive slowly and painfully. 

2020 will be interesting. The Boris honeymoon (he has just returned from Mystique) may last a few weeks. By May with the weather improving Boris' gang will be headed in the opposite direction.

Brexit v The Civil War

Boris Causes Train Wreck?

We live in strange times. We may agree that parallels with the American Civil War may seem over - dramatic and inflated, but can we be sure that this is so?

A house divided against itself cannot stand.

I do not expect the Union to be dissolved -- I do not expect the house to fall -- but I do expect it will cease to be divided. - Abraham Lincoln

Honest Abe knew better than he said. The print media is awash with rumours of a general election as the only way to make Brexit progress. Problem is the heavyweights of the opposition parties are not really biting on this foul - tasting option. And Boris has no real prospect of conning MP s into voting, turkey - like for a Christmas poll. So, he blusters and fumes whilst the electorate snoozes.

Meanwhile the EU has agreed an extension, of unspecified length. Sort of.

Fortunately for Boris never say never can be consigned to the dustbin. Without batting an eyelid, Jeremy Corbin has seen the light, or has been on an unscheduled visit to the middle East for a Damascene moment not including his Hamas pals, as he has agreed to an early general election. Parliament is currently arguing about the date. It will be early December - almost certainly.

Hang on the masses cry, what happened to the fixed term parliament act?

Answer - Parliament just votes to ignore it-when it suits them - which is pretty much whenever they like. Clear? I thought not.

The background : David Cameron had an election which he failed to win, but he did persuade the Liberal Democrats to join in a coalition so he could govern. Part of the price he had to pay was the fixed term parliament act which specified that there has to be a general election every five years. The Liberal Democrats were thereby assured that he couldn't pull the rug on them when he thought he could get away with it. So far so good.

Eventually another election duly rolls around and, in no small measure owing to their penchant for climbing into bed with the Tories - along with Dave's promise to hold a referendum on membership of the EU, the Liberal Democrats got all the blame for the crap that happened and none of the credit for anything good. They got slaughtered at the polls and Cameron got an unexpected overall Tory government. One result of which was the EU referendum of 2016. Having promised the vote in order to blind-side the loonies led by Nigel Farage, poor David had little choice but to deliver.

It remains to be seen whether Boris may inherit the whirlwind sown by Cameron. For, we wait to see what Nigel will do. I suspect that the Tories must have had a nod and a wink from the Brexit party to the effect that some sort of election pact is going to be available. Maybe a clear run for Nigel and some of his cronies to swap membership of the EU parliament for tacit Tory support in some constituencies? Who knows? Update: the Brexit party has had their launch and Nigel has offered Boris a deal as I predicted. The Tories are currently saying not on your Nelly. Can they sustain this position? It all depends on the polls, if they start to slip Nigel may be back in the game. The campaign is only five weeks - that's five times longer than the old adage "a week is a long time in politics". Watch this space.

Why does Mal say this is most likely? Simples : I can't see how else a Brexit majority can be conjured after the election. The diatribe from Boris and his new best buddy Nigel will be that if the voters support Labour, the Liberal Democrats or anyone else they will get no Brexit at all or Brino at best.

This could work for Boris and he's a gambler at heart.

The house divided may be closer than we think.

Update, we vote on 12 Dec. As I predicted, Nigel has whimped out and done a deal with Boris. The Brexit Party will not put up candidates in constituencies where the Tory candidate is a Brexiteer. So, Boris should win. He's the bookies favourite. We'll see!

Presidential Angels

The better angels of their nature

We live in strange times. Seemingly lost in the Brexit conundrum, are the reactions of our closest ally and object of the special relationship. President Trump's pronouncements on the subject have been, in general, unhelpful and misleading. He has fallen into the classic trap of promising the UK a great free trade deal, but never saying how or when this may be accomplished. We are left wondering about this course of action.

Having just returned from state side, I was struck by the general lack of knowledge and informed debate from both the US government and the American general public. Except for promising a great deal the President seems unwilling or unable to comment sagely or give an informed opinion.

So we are left with Boris challenging Members of Parliament to basically back me or sack me, by insisting his deal is the only one in town.

We find that President Trump has, to his discredit, failed to make any real attempt to understand the real issues that underpin Brexit. Glib pronouncements are not required. They may be readily found in the media. "In part, this distance from the United States reflects well-justified wariness of the Trump administration. British leaders have, by now, learned not to trust Trump vapourware. Through the early part of 2017, Trump and Trump-administration officials again and again promised 3rapid progress toward a post-Brexit free-trade agreement. Trump told British reporters at the Hamburg G20 in July 2017: “We”—meaning the United States and Great Britain—“have been working on a trade deal which will be a very, very big deal, a very powerful deal, great for both countries, and I think we will have that done very, very quickly.” There was a time when pro-Brexit politicians and pundits believed and relied on those words, but that time is long gone. " - Atlantic magazine.

Now, it seems, the President has lost interest or moved on to more pressing matters. Donald Trump has said it would be “terrible” if Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan was blocked – making the comments hours after an historic ruling against the prime minister by Britain’s top court.

"Appearing alongside Mr Johnson on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, the US president through his support behind his determination to leave the EU.

Meanwhile the UK staggers on towards some sort of Brexit, oblivious to the reality that a free trade deal with the US has receded so far as to make the Andromeda galaxy seem closer.

Brexiteers are right to point out that the US is by far the UK's largest market after the European Union. What they cannot say is how to square the Donald's America First mantra with a comprehensive free trade deal. To the outside observer, these seem mutually exclusive propositions. Squaring this circle is at the heart of the Brexit debate insofar as it applies to the special relationship."

And, the pace of the debate is supercharged by the self - imposed Halloween deadline set by Boris. While Rome burns Boris fiddles with the numbers in Parliament, and thinks that he can push the legislation through in record time and with little or no scrutiny. Miracles do happen. Had he not so alienated the DUP it might even work. Crunch time is here. Again!

And at the bar of public opinion meanwhile there is no real appetite for just muddling on in the hope that, Micawber-like, something will turn up. Following a Pyrrhic victory Boris faces a real dilemma : should he keep trying or throw in the towel and go for a general election? Cannons to the right of him, and left and in front. Where will he turn?

Who knows?

One thing seems sure - the President has lost interest, has other fish to fry and may be further distracted by troubles on the home front.

Bon appetite.

Post Brexit Brexit?

Will we have a Brexit at all?

Who knows?

Bonking Boris is currently touring France and Germany hoping Macron or Merkel will throw him a life line or at least a crumb of comfort.  Upon returning he didn’t actually achieve much - not in terms of concrete proposals.

Parliament are revolting. Corbin is flexing his very puny muscles. The Lib-Dems sense real opportunities. In a dark place where we hate to look, lies Nigel Farage.  Behind him lline Nicola Sturgeon and Arlene Foster. Canons to the right of him, canons to the left of him volley and thunder. Into the valley of death rides Boris.

Oddly, throughout it all Boris remains cheerfully optimistic.  Those around him, like Mchael Gove (supposedly in charge of Brexit preparations), James Cleverly (supposedly in charge of organising the Conservative party) and an odd assortment of others (including Home Secretary Priti Patel - (was there ever a more mis-aptly named politician?) mouth the Brexit platitudes.

Duckspeak.  May I suggest, dear reader, that you dig out your well-thumbed copy of Orwell’s 1984 and bone up on Duckspeak.  I suspect it will become more and more accurate in describing the reactions of our current crop of politicians the closer we get to the proverbial cliff-edge.

(I only left this piece for four days and, guess what?  It’s all gone belly-up - again.)

Boris has now decided to prorogue Parliament in an effort to stop MP’s from interfering with his plans.  This was probably in response to many of the opposition parties meeting just the other day to play how they can prevent the “no-deal” Brexit -  which is the central plank in his government. The Speaker is outraged. Jeremy Corbin is outraged. Boris is amiably suggesting this is just a plan to get more legislation through.  He fools no-one. He is scared S***less that MP’s will flex their collective muscles and insist that he does a Brexit deal with the EU. That, he knows, would be the end of his exit strategy and the end of his Premiership.  Unfortunately, so do the EU negotiators. Therefore they do nothing. They are certainly not going to ride to Boris’ rescue. The Queen has now become involved. Will she, should she, must she grant Boris the prorogation he asks for?  No-one knows for sure, but it is very likely she will have to do as her PM asks. Any way it is sliced it smells and smells rank.

What is to be done?  No-one actually knows.  There are as many plausible options as fleas on a dog’s back.  Perhaps in another four days I will be back with an addendum which will update the options and choices available.  Perhaps not.

Confusing, but interesting, times, though I expect the public (whose fault this mess really is) may be so annoyed as to echo Brenda from Bristol’s lament, of oh no not another election!  Difficult to see any other way out?  

Except for the large spanner thrown into the clashing gears by Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. If Boris manages to get a deal that isn’t a “no-deal”, they promise to fight every seat in a General Election.  In those circumstances it seems impossible for Boris to win.

Happy Days.

Dad's Army Does Brexit

A very Private Frazer Brexit

Yes, folks, “we’re doomed, we’re doomed, we’re doomed” - famous catch phrase of John Laurie – know affectionately as Private James Frazer in that classic British Sitcom, Dad’s Army is now coming to pass.

If only he had not been quite so prophetic or prescient.

We now approach the real crunch. Latest predictions are Teresa will lose the Commons vote and lose spectacularly. Where do we go from there? Probably down the pan – and we are talking toilet here. Why? Mostly because the Tory Party has been at war with themselves over the EU for a very long time and many politicians have no other reason to exist than to carry on the crusade and get out of the EU. That’s just what they do.

Problem is: having achieved that they are now incapable of voting for any plan except the one they believe in. (And that includes both sides of the argument – for all sides are equally to blame for this mess – lest we leave anyone out don’t forget the Labour Party -led by Jeremy Corbin who does not and never has thought that the EU was/is a good idea – or the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists and the Democratic Unionist Party – all bit players but to whom some of the blame must be apportioned.) Of course, if there was a consensus around one plan, any plan that would solve the problem. Is that a flying pig I spy? If so, make sure you carry an umbrella for even flying pigs must defecate occasionally.

So what is to be done? Who knows, least of all Teresa May. Everyone says she must have a back-up plan – she just must. But what if she is telling the truth – it’s her deal or no deal. Sounds like just like another one of her famous sound bites – pleasing on the ear but without any real substance. Just perhaps her back-up plan is to not have a back-up plan. This could work. When she loses big in Wednesday’s vote, she just resigns and says, OK over to you guys now – I’m doing a David Cameron, I’m out of it – good luck to all!

Sounds far-fetched, improbably, unlikely, impossible? Don’t bet on it.

That notwithstanding, are there other viable alternatives?

Everybody has an idea so I’m entitled to mine.

Let’s have a new referendum – not just a re-run of the old one.

A Royal Commission would oversee the terms and the date.

Crucially, everyone who lives in the UK and pays UK Income tax and national insurance, everyone who is entitled to free care under the National Health and everyone who lives in the EU but pays UK Income tax would be eligible to vote.

We hear a lot about how 17.4 million people voted to leave. Yes, and their votes should count. We don’t hear about the millions of people who should have been allowed to vote and were not allowed. We need to hear their opinion and we need to hear it now.

How many old people (who mostly voted to leave) are not with us any more? How many young people who were not old enough to vote now can?

It is disingenuous to maintain that the result of the referendum is set in stone. That is a denial of democracy. We vote for a new government every five years. It is silly and stupid to demand that a one-time vote must be set in stone forever. Brexit did not come down on tablets from Sinai.

The essential quality of referenda is that they are mutable. That’s what a referendum is.

Get over it.

All Out War

The Full Story of Brexit

Tim Shipman's account of the Brexit Saga was a Sunday Times Book of the Year. There is a lesson here: the Sunday Times Book of the Year Award is not worth winning, for this winner is a very poorly-written book.

Mr Shipman certainly does not lack support from the great and the good. Gracing the cover are such comments as: A Must Read – Nick Robinson; Essential – Andrew Marr; Utterly Gripping – Economist; Stonklingly Good - Fraser Nelson; The Best Political Book of the Year – New Statesman; Superlative . . . Does Full Justice To A Momentous Time – Peter Osborne; One of the Best Political Journalists of His Era – Ian Dale

This is the kind of book which will appeal to the intelligensia and the litterati. The public? Probably about as much as the actual Brexit debate, which, as Tim reminds us, was full of half-truths, sound-bites and misinformation – on both sides.

Having said that, it is of interest to all who are trying to understand how Brexit happened and what might happen next. "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

The quote is most likely due to George Santayana, and in its original form it read, ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’

We must start with some background. The UK entered the Common Market in In the first week of 1973. The week Britain joined the Common Market, the Government put on a festival of European culture so that the British people could share what their Prime Minister, Edward Heath, called his “heart full of joy” at their country's shiny new Euro-future. In 1975 the UK held a referendum on continued membership of the European Community. 67% of the voters supported staying in the EU.

In the 60's and 70's, it was primarily the Labour Party which was very sceptical of Britain's membership of the EU, although equally there was always a Euro-septic wing of the Tory Party. People like Tony Benn and Michael Foot realised that the EU was, and is, essentially a capitalist organisation opposed to the brand of socialism they were hoping to bring to Britain. We see echoes of this train of thought in the very lukewarm Labour Remain campaign as fronted by Jeremy Corbyn. In fact, Tim Shipman identifies Labour's approach as critical to the eventual success of Vote Leave.

However the main “culprit” in this monument to man's hubris and capacity for miscalculation has to be David Cameron. Remember the great line in Guys and Dolls when Marlon Brando says “Daddy, I've got cider in my ear”. For Brando read Cameron.

”Turning the book on its head we get to David's débâcle after about 600 pages. “. . . it did not matter enough to him that he should win.” As a Labour MP said after Cameron had resigned, “He's the only prime minister in my adult life time who has treated it as just another job, rather than a vocation.” Ironically, it was his victory in the election of 2015 which led to his downfall. Having entered the campaign in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and believing he must see off the threat of UKIP, Cameron promised an in-out referendum if he won. He must have thought that in coalition with the Lib-Dems this would never have to take place – as they are the most pro-European party in Parliament. He was wrong – big time. The Lib-Dems's were wiped out and with a majority of 12 he was boxed into the corner by his own Euro-septic wing and the constant carping of UKIP and had to deliver on his referendum pledge.

He found himself at the head of a government committed to a referendum (which was non-binding, although almost no-one can be found who will even admit this – much less even anyone who will stop parroting the “will of the people must be respected” line.

The majority of Tim Shipman's analysis (about 500 pages to be precise) concerns characters the general public have neither ever heard of nor give a hoot about. His contention that it was the faceless leaders of the Leave campaign (to paraphrase the Sun) wot won it is clear.

So much has been written about the Labour Party's role in delivering Brexit, Shipman does not flinch from laying most of the blame on the leader, Jeremy Corbyn. He reminds us that. “. . . no-one disputes that for much of his career he was a dedicated and consistent opponent of British membership of the European Union.” Jeremy Corbin could not and would not deliver the Labour vote for Remain. The truth is - it was the vote in the Labour heartlands which delivered the 600 000 majority to leave. And, it was Jeremy's fault. At the end of the day he is a paid up member of the Tony Benn and Michael Foot fan club.

Meanwhile David Cameron spent most of his remaining time as PM trying to get the EU to agree some kind of a deal which would allow him to sell membership to the Conservative Party and then to the rest of the country. He worked hard at it, but with no success. Much of Shipman's book explains how and why he failed. Certainly the leadership of the EU and Angela Merkel bear a lot of the responsibility. They just couldn't envision how or why the British people would vote to leave, and therefore were unable to agree on any kind concessions on the freedom of movement which might have enabled Cameron to sell the deal to those disaffected Labour voters who turned out in great numbers in the north of England, unexpectedly, and therefore ensured a Leave majority.

There was some good news for the PM at this time as we learn on page 332. . . “the emergence of Teresa May as a supporter of the Remain campaign”. She did not sell her support cheap “insisting to Cameron that any deal include cracking down on “”sham marriages””, she also wanted spouses of EU nationals treated the same as those from non-EU countries. Of course, this was all pie-in-the-sky. The EU four principals just wouldn't allow it. Teresa was off the fence but the Leavers were greatly disappointed – believing she would be happy to support them. (Teresa is now the leader of the Conservative Party and PM)

Throughout the Cameron premiership, his partnership with George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, was the rock upon which these two Old Etonians based their success. Osborne was never in favour of the referendum in the first place. But, he was determined to win it. He did tell Cameron, “The EU is never – in my view - going to give Britain the benefits of membership without the costs.”

(George should run for prophet of the century, he would win hands down.)

Winding forward a few months and years, we now know that the Chancellor was spot on. There is no sign of a deal – even on the first part of the negotiations. The EU says three things have to be sorted before talks can move on to trading arrangements.

One – the rights of EU citizens in the UK after Brexit. Rumours that this is the easiest of the three issues abound, yet no concrete deal has been reached.

Looking back at the referendum itself, it is odd in the extreme that most of the UK citizens living in Europe were not eligible to vote – a fact hastily glossed over by Brexiteers.

Two – the Irish border question. This is a bit like the weather, everybody talks about it but no-one actually does anything about it. Everyone is adamant that there can be no “hard” border between Eire and Northern Ireland. But, no-one has yet brought forward concrete, acceptable plans as to how this is to be done.

For example, if there is no border and the common travel area between the UK and Ireland (which has existed since the 1920's) is maintained – how will one of the chief goals of Brexit be realised? Control of the borders is a Brexiteers mantra. So, an EU citizen travels to Dublin, they take the ferry from Dublin to Holyhead (current price £31). There are no border checks. The porous border the Brexiteers are demanding an end to is open to our EU citizen. Of course this mythical EU migrant will not have a right to work, but will that deter the casual labourer who is paid in cash, no questions asked? Who knows?

Three – the exit bill. The EU says that the UK has monetary commitments which must be honoured after Brexit. The UK government agrees – sort of. (The PM said recently that no remaining EU country will have to pay any more until the UK leaves 2017? Or 2019 – if there is the proposed two year “transition period”.) Any way this is sliced it's going to be a large sum of money – running into billions. Strange, all we ever heard from the Brexiteers was there would be £350 million a week for the NHS after we leave. I'm wondering how many of the 600 000 voted to leave with this “promise” ringing in their ears?

Back to the book. The role of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove in the campaign is examined in detail. I love the quote on page 149, attributed to Cameron - “There is a spectrum. George (Osborne) is more pro-European than me, so is Teresa. Then there's me, then there's you (Michael Gove) then there's Boris.

(And, Teresa is now in charge, still screaming at every opportunity, Brexit Means Brexit!)

Twenty pages later we still find Teresa defending Cameron against attacks by Gove and Johnson. The importance of these two “big beasts” of the Tory party to the eventual Brexit decision may be over-estimated, but it is still substantial. Boris is the darling of the Tories and some votes must have been swayed by his brand of campaigning. To this day, he still bangs on about the £350 million as being a realistic figure for the extra money for the NHS. (Give credit where credit is due – at least he is consistent. Whereas, hardly anyone else thinks any money for the NHS is likely to be forthcoming!)

There is a nice chapter analysing how and why the leaders of the official Get Out campaign decided not to use Nigel Farage very much in selling their message. They correctly identified that he is essentially a divisive figure, appealing to the already converted, whereas they needed to attract votes from other sections of the community. In this they succeeded brilliantly. In analysis, it was the normally hard-core Labour voters in the North and North-east of England that won the referendum. Jeremy Corbin's part in this has already been stated. Many of these folks were erstwhile UKIP supporters at heart. They may have voted Labour in general elections but their sympathies were Farage to the core. Everyone agrees that these people felt left behind in the global economy and have felt this way for years and years. Vote Leave just profited from the same tactics that have been used throughout history to appeal to this type of group. It's not your fault that you are poor, poorly educated, poorly housed, and poorly treated. It's the fault of the immigrants, the foreigners the non-native speakers of English. Vote for us and we'll “Take Back Our Country”. It's the Old Lie packaged in a new framework. Honest Abe was right You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time - Abraham Lincoln

People are fairly stupid. I can say this without fear, for I will never run for public office. Politicians rarely say things with such clarity, even though they may privately think them. We have some excellent examples of the above in the section called It's the Economy Stupid. Pages 255-6 will suffice. “People had absolutely what the EU is or how it works at all to a point that beggars belief.” (see my first sentence para above). The second problem was that voters did not believe a single thing the Treasury said. People thought there would be a saving from leaving. The third argument relied on Cameron and Osborne winning the credibility argument. This, they failed dismally to do. Argument four: the Tory belief that the fear strategy – successful in 2014 and 2015 would win again. The Ship of State was heading blindly towards the rocks and no-one had the courage enough or sufficient insight to refocus the campaign. Cameron and Osborne were looking at the wrong polls and could not, or would not listen to those who advised a more vigorous attack on Vote Leave. Dave's concern was to hold the Tories together – which, you may remember is how he got in the referendum business in the first place. “People always complain about negative campaigning but in the final analysis it works!” The final problem was that even if Stronger In had tried to move the focus - the media had moved on. The economic argument was just boring. Immigration is far more likely to start a punch-up.

(There is no such thing as bad publicity!)

The chapter called “Blue on Blue is particularly well researched. One of Dave Cameron's biggest problems was highlighted in the exchange between Nikki Morgan (Education Secretary) and Priti Patel ( Employment Minister). On the day when parents received notice about their children starting school and receiving their first choice of a primary school, Patel chirps up to the media with comments about how immigration is the cause of any parental disappointment. Morgan was furious to be called to the House of Commons to explain why her cabinet colleague was hell-bent on sabotaging her department. So much for Cabinet collective responsibility. Here was a classic moment when Cameron could have invoked the principle of cabinet responsibility, sacked Patel and started a fight back against the Leavers in the Cabinet who were making it difficult to govern. (I suspect if anything keeps Dave awake at night it is his recollection of how Leavers in his Cabinet undermined both his Prime-ministerial authority and his attempts to keep his party on-board.)

It was left to Teresa May to put the knife into any chance of a Cabinet committed to, arguing for and campaigning for a Brexit deal. In a speech on 25 April she argued that the European Convention on Human Rights must go. (https://rightsinfo.org/wrote-european-convention-human-rights/) Another example of Pie-in-the-sky Tory dreaming. Shipman assures the readers that the Conservative leadership was more than slightly annoyed at May.

In Chapter 26 we get a good summation of how things went so wrong for the Remainers. First, though Remain won handily in London and Scotland they actually won too well, for their supporters were so mesmerised by the polls they just did not bother to turn out in sufficient numbers. The overall turnout was up by 8%, but down in Scotland and up only by 3% in London. To cap it all, there was torrential rain in parts of the capital suppressing the turnout. In Scotland, Stronger In had hoped to get support from SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party) voters. In fact they got only 55% - not the 70% they were counting on. The crusher came with the Labour vote. In London they turned out and voted for Remain. Everywhere else Labour supporters were voting to leave in big numbers. Given the demographics, Remain had no real chance, once Jeremy Corbyn had decided not to really campaign hard – leaving it to others to make the case.

In the Chapter called Jexit we learn the real story about Jeremy Corbyn's failures as Labour leader. It took almost no time before party big-wigs decided that he must go, after selling the Remain cause very short indeed. Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffee tabled a motion of no-confidence in the Labour leader. They had support from Lisa Tremble, Angela Smith and, predictably, Peter Mandelson. Tony Blair accused Corbyn of ignoring the voters who backed Brexit (presumably that's why they voted to leave, they were fed up with Labour's wishy-washy position). Unfortunately, getting Blair on-board probably ensured that the ship would be holed beneath the water line even before it had a chance to float, so toxic is his name in Labour circles now, though moderates saw this as the chance to get rid of Corbyn. Chukka Umunna, Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall and Emma Reynolds jumped on board. A real coup was in the making. Corbyn out-foxed them all by simply refusing to be drawn into a confrontation or any argument of substance. Shrugging his shoulders and mouthing “well that's an interesting point” he simply ignored the criticism and bluffed his way through a shadow cabinet meeting. Corbyn eventually sacked Hillary Benn and eleven shadow cabinet members resigned, but he just carried on. Party grandees told him to go. He refused. His colleagues told him to go. He refused. I suspect if his own mother had told him to go he would have sacked her! All twenty Labour MEP's (Members of the European Parliament) told him to go. Ed Milliband, former leader of the Labour Party, told him to go. On the Tuesday, just forty Labour Members of Parliament backed Corbyn. 172 Labour MP's supported his removal. Two-thirds of the front bench team had resigned. It had been a perfectly organised and executed coup and the plotters assumed he would now resign. He did not.

A leadership contest was instigated instead. At first Angela Eagle said she would challenge Corbyn. She dropped out. Then Owen Smith took up the mantle. He was thrashed by Corbyn in the election. Jeremy realised throughout the election period that his part in delivering Brexit mattered not a jot to the party activists upon whose votes he depended. Owen Smith was dispatched to obscurity and Corbyn carried on. Story – end of.

(Not actually the end for after Teresa called a snap election, which she had promised on numerous occasions not to do, Jeremy confounded critics by losing, but only very narrowly. Teresa's hopes were dashed by the electorate and she stumbles on from one cock-uo to the next as Tory leader.)

After Cameron had resigned, It was then left to Michael Gove and Boris Johnson to slug it out for the leadership of the Tories – at first, Gove supported Johnson. Then, Gove chickened out. Gove decided to stab Boris in both the back and the front at the same time. He did. While these two “big-beasts” were mauling each other Teresa May and Andrea Leadsom were on the sidelines, presumably cheering them on. When the dust had settled only those two remained and poor Andrea had to withdraw after asserting (perhaps correctly) that because she had children and Teresa did not she would be better able to understand the concerns of the voters. Last man standing (or person if you prefer) Teresa May became PM. The “Anyone but Boris” campaign had worked, I'm particularly fond of Tim's descriptive Chapter Title for this whole saga – Brexecuted – sums it up very nicely indeed!

Racking up the pages now and heading for the conclusion. Page 582 contains Tim Shipman's summation of David Cameron. It is not altogether unflattering, Tim tell us that Cameron had to hold the referendum to satisfy the Conservative party. He fought the campaign with one fist behind his back, as he could not afford to alienate the Brexiteers. He essentially destroyed himself to save the Party and he did. At the end, he was able to hand the party over to Teresa May more or less intact. He sidelined UKIP. The Tories were still in charge. His political epitaph will have to wait for another day.

Conclusion.

It's taken 583 pages to get their so it better be good!

“The referendum represented a revolt of the provincial classes – ignored , maligned and impoverished – against the cosy metropolitan consensus on Europe, the benefits of immigration and the belief that national economic prosperity trumps personal experience of hardship.” So sayeth our author Tim, and he is not entirely wrong either.

“Looking back, the truth is this was lost a long time ago with the relentless drip, drip of anti-European propaganda.” - Alexander Burt.

“If no Tory leader for twenty years had said anything good about Europe, which broadly speaking was the case, then trying to turn that around in six months was impossible. It was beyond even David Cameron's campaigning skills.” - Damian Green

“Ryan Coetzee believes the campaign was hurt by the breakdown of trust between rulers and the ruled, and a flourishing of conspiracy theories.” Britain was caught up in something that is sweeping the West, involving distrust to the point of paranoia.

(Remind you of any other Western politician? Fatty Trump, for instance? There is little doubt that the Trump campaign learned some lessons from Brexit.)

“It involves growing fear of the “”other”” (my italics), whether that person is black, foreign or whatever they might be.”

(I'm thinking the average Briton has forgotten how standing pretty much alone in the face of Nazism and the forces upon which Hitler's criminal mob stood on the apex of was precisely the Brexiteers prescription of how to win the referendum. Repeat the BIG Lie over and over. Tell the people that your problems and inadequacies are not your fault - it's the Jews and the November criminals – they are the enemy. Just substitute the liberal elite for Jews and the EU for November criminals and it's the same argument over again.)

Ingrained Euroscepticism may be the backdrop to the story, but Cameron could have won with just a bit more support. 600, 000 votes seems a lot but it is not in the context of a national referendum.

(It's a bit odd, just as you could never find anyone who voted for Maggie Thatcher in the 80's; no-one now admits to voting Remain – despite the House of Commons being packed with Remainers.)

“, , , Vote Leave stuck to their message and they had a campaign leader who was streets ahead of anyone on the Remain side – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings

Ask anyone of the Leave side why they won and it is Dominic Cummings who get all the credit.

My contention, earlier in this piece, that it was the faceless leaders of the Leave campaign that won it is confirmed by almost everyone in the know.

Changing the question from yes/no to remain/leave may have been worth four percentage points to Vote Leave.

(Sounds like sour grapes, who can tell?)

In the end, the role of UKIP did become critical. By distancing itself from Nigel Farage and his cronies, Vote Leave was able to keep Tory voters on-board. Nigel Farage certainly connected with the voters in the North of England and their support was crucial.

“. . . if you believe in taking the voters seriously, blame the voters. If you are an adult living in Sunderland, where the motor industry and EU funding are critical to your livelihood, and you voted to leave, well, I'm sorry mate. I think that's your fault.”

(Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, but this time they did. Subsequent events have shown that Brexit has not produced a chasm for Britain to fall into, but it may still. By voting for the unknown, and opting for the unworkable the voters have put the country at risk. Of course we move on and the Tory efforts to unite behind a Brexit policy continue. We have to wait for some time before we will know. Interestingly, the voters, who are correctly identified as the real culprits, have moved on and they mostly say, “Get on with it”.)

“Probably the majority of the population did not grasp what was at stake in Britain leaving after forty years of integration to the EU, and the bulk of the press were determined not to enlighten them.”

Same-o – same-o. The voters are to blame. The Dewsbury Chavs, the Yarmouth Oicks, the Scousers, the Geordies, the Cornish in-breds, the Brummie Smegheads, the Black Country numpties, and the Lowestoft knuckle-draggers won it for Vote Leave.

Toxic Tony Blair deserves some the the blame as well. He failed to see how unlimited immigration would poison the country against the EU. He failed to see how the accession of the Eastern European countries would be viewed by the indigenous population. His Iraq war destabilised the Middle East and provided the spectre of immigration on the German model.

(Hard not to feel some sympathy for poor old Tony. His latest efforts to rally some support for staying in the EU have been scuppered by his own name. How the mighty have fallen.)

We may as well let Peter Mandelson have a go as well: “We lost because of the mountain of anti-EU sentiment in the country, driven by Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre and the rest of the Brexit press over many years, the hopelessness of the Labour leadership, and our own campaign's lack of dexterity in reading of public opinion . . . the achievement of 48% begins to look like a small miracle,”

(Yep.)

If Mandelson get a look in we ought to have Alistair Campbell as well: If it had just been Nigel Farage and the right-wing papers and a few Tory odd-balls it would have been fine. It wouldn't have happened without Boris Johnson and Michael Gove,”

(Who you will remember soon fell out big time and continue to rubbish each other whenever possible.)

The final word goes to the author, Tim Shipman: “No-one's ends justify limitless means. But it seems to me when we look at the US, where Donald Trump makes Aaron Banks or Nigel Farage look like Mary Poppins, or the rest of the EU itself, where parties mine more extreme reaches of the political spectrum than we do in Britain, that we are still lucky to have the politics we do. If we are getting furious about about the niceties of an overcooked £350 million a week to Brussels, or a dubious £4 300 cost to families, rather than rioting in the streets or real coups, political executions, or racial apartheid, we are not doing so badly as a country.”

My final word is somewhat different. Tim has taken 600-odd pages to detail how the Referendum was won and lost, yet he has not really reached the nub of the argument. The fact is True Brit won. The Little-Englanders triumphed over the young, the educated, the wealthy, the outward-looking and the rational. Only time will tell how much damage has and will be done not only to the UK but to Europe as well.