Sunday, November 15, 2020

Trump Hits Occam's Razor

 


Occam's Razor


First: an account mt sister gave about watching Fox News when the counting stopped: I assume you are right. I didn’t personally see this but if you say so, then it must be true. you’re my sister, so you wouldn’t lie to me! So, we should ask ourselves, why would the vote counting be stopped on election night? Your efforts to pin this on Google are not credible (see my conclusion to this piece to fine out why). People refer to crooked Dems in swing states. Pejorative – alleging don’t make it so. Where is the evidence? Vast amounts of Biden votes dumped. Ditto the above. Maybe the folks who were counting got tired and needed a break? Most sensible commentaries I have seen or read do allow for some voter irregularities. In an election with that many millions of votes cast it would be more than remarkable if some were not quite kosher. But, crucially, not in a sufficient numbers to invalidate a state’s overall allocation of electoral college votes. Hyperbole does not do you or any Trumpie supporter any credit. As I have said, if there are credible allegations of fraud or irregularities, they must be investigated.


Second: may I point you to https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/11/22/almost-60-percent-of-americans-believe-in-conspiracy-theories-about-jfk-heres-why-that-might-be-a-problem/


The idea that it’s all a giant conspiracy is not new nor is not remotely credible. Why? This article admits that to believe in a voter conspiracy you have to believe in a long line of Democrat conspiracies. And why not sayeth the author? One of the real strengths of our Constitution is that freedom of expression is sacrosanct (except for yelling FIRE in a crowded theatre). Therefore commentators are free to pedal the most outlandish conspiracy theories and present them as facts, because the FF believed that the individual will always be of sufficient intellect, experience, common sense and ability to separate shit from Shineola (as my Old Man used to say). In the modern age of Facebook, Twitter and some crazy thing my brother Mark just joined, the FF would have to reassess their plan.


Third: The article’s assertion that should the Supreme Court overturn the election result and in consequence the Left goes berserk (actually everyone should go berserk!) - well to hell with them! Trump will still be President, and he won’t feel constrained in his response to any of them.


You can read this as a call for civil unrest, insurrection and chaos to replace democracy and decency. I resist. So should everyone who (including my nephew, my brother, all who served in the military and the President) swore to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution. In the end I believe Trump will do so, despite the loonies egging him on.


Finally: I interject into all of the above the philosophical concept of Occam’s Razor.


In order to believe in a Kennedy Assassination Conspiracy and a fraud perpetrated on the public by the Democratic Party to get rid of Trump you have to believe in what must have been the most wide-spread, multi-faith, multi-ethnic, multi-anti-democratic, multi-Party fraud whose conspirators must number not in the tens, or hundreds, or thousands, but in the hundred-thousands (if not more) all of whom blithely go along with a conspiracy so alien to all that America stands for that Biden becoming President overcomes all their good sense, scruples, principles and common sense.

This is just silly.  Lee Harvey Oswald shot Kennedy.  The moon landings were not faked.  Joe Biden won the election.


Occam’s Razor Rules.

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Trump v Biden

 An article from Deroy Murdoch        Fox News

(incidentally, we used to be able to get Fox News in the UK on Sky TV.  You may well wonder, as I have, why they decided to discontinue it?)

Para four points out some attractive features to the voter of a Biden President, but asks us to examine the issues.  Spot on.

Next para asserts that a Biden government would be a disaster for schools.  I confess to not being sufficiently acquainted with the American educational system to be able to comment very sensibly.  From what I gather the argument is very similar to the British Academy schools system – championed by and implemented by the Conservative government.  Schools are encouraged to leave the control of the local authorities and become academies under the direct control, through funding, of the central government.  In Britain this is essentially an ideological argument. Successive Tory governments have been convinced that the teaching profession is overwhelmingly left-wing.  (they may be correct) so, the Academy system provides a counter-point to the local left-wing school boards.  It seems the Trump “school choice for every parent” seems to be similar.

(aside) How does this square with Brown v the Board?  Separate but equal is not constitutional.

Next para he contends that Biden would grant citizenship to 11 million illegal aliens, most of whom would vote Democrat.  Supposition.  Free healthcare for illegal aliens?  I’d like to see the proposals.  Seems no more daft that no healthcare for poor citizens who cannot afford insurance.  

(aside) Trump’s attempts to abolish or defuse Obamacare seems to have stopped.  Or am I misinformed?  I’ve no heard him commenting on this issue at rallies.  Have I missed it?)

Fracking.  Not an issue.  Reliance on fossil fuels will inevitably fall.  Fracking merely provides Americans with obscenely low energy prices and to that extent it’s good election policy for Trump to highlight the issue.

The Sandia Laboratories story is beyond the pale -  “According to Breitbart News and as reported on Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” the men were forced to attend a training course titled, “White Men’s Caucus on Eliminating Racism, Sexism, and Homophobia in Organizations,” according to Christopher F. Rufo, an author, writer, and researcher.” - not exactly a balanced viewpoint, from a variety of sources.  

This sort of media sensationalism just reinforces prejudice.  The key word here is “forced”  on what compunction?  Discussing eliminating racism, sexism and homophobia in organisations is surely a good thing.  Or, are we free to be as racist, sexist and homophobic as we like in our private lives?  I suggest we are and the attendees were just trying to save their jobs.  Daft policy by the employer.  

The conclusion concentrates on the far-left agenda of Biden.  My suspicion is that this is overblown.  In the UK the policies discussed here would be seen as fairly mainstream.  The American obsession with labeling (particularly as socialist) shines through. I well remember when I used to teach Animal Farm to 15 year olds.  At the end of the first week the whole class were ready to man the barricades and march on Parliament.  When I asked them why we need Coke and Pepsi, why not just have State Cola Number One and use the millions, maybe billions of dollars, those corporations use to try to generate a 000.1 percent advantage in the buying habits of millions of Cola drinkers they were appalled by the wasted resources.  After reading Orwell’s critique of socialism (or more specifically Soviet Communism) they had all returned to the fold and were able to examine the issues with a critical focus.  That’s education.  He idea that teachers inculcate left-wing ideas in unknowing and unthinking children is a fantasy.  Tell kids how they must think and they will cheerfully tell you to get lost.  Fact.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Moaning, Groaning Whinging British Style

 

British Rule of Six


Britain already has a rule of six: grousing, griping, moaning, groaning, whingeing and wailing:  so says Jeremy Clarkson in the Sunday Times of September 20 2020


“In the run-up to the last general election we were all assured, many times, that the Conservatives had an “oven-ready” deal on Brexit. But it seems that, when they opened the packaging, they found that actually it was full of mould, subterfuge and razor blades.


Like everyone else in the world, I cannot get my head round the detail of the issues, but, also like everyone else in the world, I’m aware of the fact that to solve it, Britain says it may have to break international law. And, naturally, this has caused all sorts of wailing, with everyone explaining that if we openly go down this road, it will shatter our reputation around the world for fair play, cricket and decency.


Except the qualities usually ascribed to the British are really just a rose-tinted historical view and bear little resemblance to modern Britain – so sayeth Jeremy Clarkson.


Is he right?


There is little doubt that the British do have an over-inflated opinion of themselves. Just look at Brexit. The main driver was the idea that we can do very well without the rest of the world. Really? In 2020?


Back to Clarkson, who recounts the story of the WWII raid on St Nazaire where one of the soldiers, interviewed after the battle said, “I remember Johnny Proctor lying there, leg blown off, cheering us on . . . “ Clarkson says this is the idea of the British we like to most offer the world. Stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on – but is it correct in 2020?


Churchill’s rousing rhetoric about the bomb-ravaged East End still sounds impressive today, but maybe the chaps digging in the rubble were just trying to find their dog or pieces of their gran? Back then no-one was recording the thoughts of the working class.


He saves his real bile for Twitter. Perhaps, he muses thousands objected to Brunel’s plans for the GWR. Same for the M1 – but down at the Dog and Duck who would listen? Now with 24 hour Twitter we hear every squeak of complaint about HS2 hi-speed railway.


Could the Aussie’s have been right all along – the British are just a bunch of Whinging Poms?


He hopes so, so we can ditch the British stiff upper and idolized fair play and do what the Greeks do – We put our masks on so we can concentrate fully on ignoring everything the EU says.


No prize for guessing where his sympathies lie.

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Chiefs prospects 2020

Turn on the dynasty. 



Oh, wait - I almost forgot the Covid 19 season, which is the NFL season we are going to get, like it or not. Therefore any discussion about 2020 is immediately suspect. We just don't know what kind of season it's going to be. 



One thing we do know is Saint Patrick is signed up as a Chief for as long as they want him. Pro football talk, courtesy of Misters Florio and Sims, have already decided that Mahomes is GOAT. For anyone else this might be the kiss of death. I fervently hope they are right. If they are then talk of a dynasty is not out of order. Add in the return of 22 of the Super Bowl starters and dynasty talk doesn't seem so far-fetched at all. 



Let's look at the 53 man roster assembled by Reid and Veitch. At QB we have Mahomes and Chad Henne. Talk about all your eggs in one basket! Don't forget Mahomes had an injury last year. On the plus side the Chiefs will look to put one, maybe two QB on the expanded Covid practice squad including last year's star Matt Moore. 



The running backs are Clyde Edwards-Hellaire, Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson. If CEH is the real deal then fans are in for a treat. Hopefully as good as Kareem Hunt was if not better. If he's a bust then all bets are off. My fingers are crossed. Adrian Petersen, a future hall of famer is available. Watch this space. 



Anthony Sherman is the full back. An ace on special teams he is integral to the Chief's success and an indispensable member of the Super Bowl team. 



The wide outs are: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Marcus Kemp. Hardman returns kicks - Pringle and Kemp have special teams roles. The others should scare opponents senseless and will. 



There are four tight ends rostered : Kelce and Yelder are familiar to fans with Nick Keizer and Ricky Seals-Jones vying for playing time. I hope they get some. Kelce should get more time off. Let's see some two blocking tight ends sets with Kelce watching and CEH running. 



The offensive line men are : Eric Fisher, Kelechi Osemele, Austin Reiter, Andrew Wylie and Mitchell Swartz (starters) backed up by Mike Remmers, Daniel Kilgore, Nick Allegretti and Yasir Durant (the only undrafted free agent on offence). 



The Defense 



Tackles : Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Kahlen Saunders and Tershawn Wharton. Wharton makes the team as an undrafted free agent and will start with Mike Pennels two game suspension at the start of the season. The Chiefs also use my favourite Tanoh Kpassagnon as a tackle on occasion. 



Defensive ends : Frank Clark, Alex Okafor, Kapassagnon, Taco Charlton, Michael Danna and Demone Harris. Breeland Speaks is gone but will surely be picked up on Waivers. I hope he doesn't come back to haunt us. 



Line backers : Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, Willie Gay, Ben Neimann and Dorian O'Daniel. Gay is the rookie in to bolster a perceived Chief's weakness whilst Neimann and O'Daniel play special teams and must start getting on the field. It's long past time they stepped up. 



Corner backs : Charvarious Ward, L'Jarius Sneed, Antonio Hamilton, Rashad Fenton and BoPete Keynes. Another weakness in the roster but perhaps better than often reckoned. We'll see. 



Safeties : Tyrann Mathieu, Juan Thornhill, Daniel Sorensen, Tedric Thompson and Armani Watts. Looks a very strong group. Sorensen was an unlikely star of the play off run and an annual candidate of the pundits to be cut. He makes the team again. Watts is in the last chance saloon. Thornhill returns from injury. If he's 100%, then this is a super bowl repeating crew. 



Specialists : the Butt kicker handles the place kicks, Winchester is the long snapper and Tommy Townshend is the punter. (like so many other players on the roster he has benefitted from the lack of a pre-season and the 80 member squad limit. He gets the job by default. The good news is that punters are a dime a dozen, so if he doesn't feel any pressure he should, for he replaces a Chief's legend, Dustin Colquitt. 

Loop

So, where does this roster leave the quest for a repeat? 



On the face of it only a catastrophic injury to Mahomes and two or three others could derail the steamroller. Oh, if only it was that simple. People tend to forget that the tribe was down double figures three times in the playoffs. Therefore a strong case can be made that they were very lucky. In order to repeat they must ride the luck again. 



The opening match versus the Texans should tell us a lot. From their perspective they was robbed last year. Beating the Chiefs could well have seen them lifting the Lombardi. If I was their coach I'd be telling them exactly that most every day. Contrastingly, Andy Reid will marshal the troops to produce an offensive avalanche. We'll see. 



The bad news first, before we all get carried away. Looks like the starting secondary may feature two rookies. This was a Chiefs weakness last season. It just seems unlikely we can spot Texans a 24 point lead again and score 7 straight touchdowns. Lest we forget, it was the defence that won the Super Bowl with two quality stops in quarter 4. Also, a lot of praise has been heaped on Edwards-Hillaire and Willie Gay - two rookies who fans believe are sure things. Such confidence is often over-stated. If the Chiefs lose the opener, things may not look so rosy. 



31 of 33 pundits are picking the tribe to repeat as Super Bowl champs - and not a ball has been kicked or thrown. If the players have spent their time reading their press clippings, a fall from grace is not far away. 



At worst we make the play-offs. At best it's party time again. 



I'm hoping for the best but fearing the worst. 



****I should have gotten (note the US usage) this posted today, but I played golf instead : therefore I'm behind time and waiting for kick off and not at the computer. I'm reminded of two facts: one Andy Reid is usually a genius with time to prepare a game plan, two the Texans won at Arrowhead last year. So, perhaps expecting either or both teams to be in top condition or form is unreasonable. I expect that the skill players will be ahead of the curve and defences may have to catch up. ****








Saturday, June 27, 2020

Constitution v Declaration


Why History Counts

The two most important documents in American history have a chequered history. Most people know that it was Thomas Jefferson who authored the Declaration, but the framers of the Constitution are less distinct and certainly less well-known. Despite this fact it is to the Constitution that Americans give their allegiance and regard as the crowning achievement of the revolution.

Reverence to the Constitution has not always been the norm.

On balance, the Constitution was deliberately ambiguous—but operationally pro-slavery. Perhaps more so than James Madison wanted. He’s outdone original-intent jurisprudence in reducing history to a morality play of good founders, bad critics. He loses sight of what actually happened when the ambiguously worded but slavery-suffused Constitution was finally released to an anxious public.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.
— Declaration of Independence, 1776

Thomas Jefferson presented the Declaration of Independence to the Continental Congress in 1776.

When the American colonies broke from England, the Continental Congress asked Thomas Jefferson to write the Declaration of Independence. In the declaration, Jefferson expressed American grievances and explained why the colonists were breaking away. His words proclaimed America’s ideals of freedom and equality, which still resonate throughout the world.

Yet at the time these words were written, more than 500,000 black Americans were slaves. Jefferson himself owned more than 100. Slaves accounted for about one-fifth of the population in the American colonies. Most of them lived in the Southern colonies, where slaves made up 40 percent of the population.

Many colonists, even slave holders, hated slavery. Jefferson called it a “hideous blot” on America. George Washington, who owned hundreds of slaves, denounced it as “repugnant.” James Mason, a Virginia slave owner, condemned it as “evil.”

But even though many of them decried it, Southern colonists relied on slavery. The Southern colonies were among the richest in America. Their cash crops of tobacco, indigo, and rice depended on slave labor. They weren’t going to give it up.

The first U.S. national government began under the Articles of Confederation, adopted in 1781.

(The Continental Congress adopted the Articles of Confederation, the first constitution of the United States, on November 15, 1777. However, ratification of the Articles of Confederation by all thirteen states did not occur until March 1, 1781. The Articles created a loose confederation of sovereign states and a weak central government, leaving most of the power with the state governments. This document said nothing about slavery. It left the power to regulate slavery, as well as most powers, to the individual states. After their experience with the British, the colonists distrusted a strong central government. The new national government consisted solely of a Congress in which each state had one vote. The need for a stronger Federal government soon became apparent and eventually led to the Constitutional Convention in 1787. The present United States Constitution replaced the Articles of Confederation on March 4, 1789.)



Looking at the balance of the emphasis of both documents it's easy to see that practically and operationally the Constitution takes precedence.

This is the norm. Jefferson’s magnum opus is revered, but it is to the Constitution that Americans give their allegiance. So, how did this come about and is it healthy?

The founding fathers (FF) always knew that the Constitution would be a compromise. Given the state of the nation after the experiment with the Articles of Confederation: it could be nothing else.

In order to get the southern states on board compromises had to be made. The chief compromise was in allowing slave states to count 3 fifths of slaves as population for the purpose of deciding the population of each state, and therefore the number of members of the house of representatives. Putting it simple: the FF no matter how revered ensured that the Constitution not only recognised slavery but also rewarded its continuation.

These compromises led many abolitionists to call the Constitution a pact with the devil.

The Declaration presented no such ambiguity. Unless you consider slaves not to be men? Jefferson's mantra that all men are created equal rings out-even though he was a slave holder himself. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is a creed not present in the constitution. Instead we have in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, ensure domestic tranquility and provide for the common defence. Admirable aspirations but lacking the humanity features of the Declaration.

The Constitution was out of date from the beginning. No sooner were the required ratifications received than the first ten amendments (known as the Bill of Rights) were added. What Americans see as their fundamental rights stem from these first 10 amendments.

Fast forward to the Covid 19 pandemic and the response of the Vice President, Mike Pence. In response to a question from the media as to why the government had not done more to discourage people from mass gatherings and protests. Mike reminded them that the Constitution guarantees the right to assembly.

(The First Amendment to the United States Constitution states "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress …)

As to whether this applies in a public health emergency is probably open to debate.

The Constitution is an evolving document. The Declaration stands as it was written. The Constitution is a working framework for government, the Declaration is aspirational. On balance I prefer the Declaration of Independence, for it speaks to the goals and qualities which all Americans ought to respect and work to achieve.

Friday, June 05, 2020

Why Some British People Don't like Donald Trump


Trump - George Floyd - the NFL

I found this whilst rummaging around in my saved files, and just had to share it. There must be another side to the story, but the premise that the Donald's unique brand of communication leaves a lot to be desired seems almost irrefutable. 



Someone asked "Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?" 



Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England, wrote this magnificent response:



"A few things spring to mind.



Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.



For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace - all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.



So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.



Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing - not once, ever.



I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility - for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.



But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is - his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.



Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.



And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults - he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.



There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It’s all surface.



Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.



Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.



And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.



Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.



He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.



He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.



And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.



That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.



There are unspoken rules to this stuff - the Queensberry rules of basic decency - and he breaks them all. He punches downwards - which a gentleman should, would, could never do - and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless - and he kicks them when they are down.



So the fact that a significant minority - perhaps a third - of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think 'Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy’ is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:

* Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
* You don't need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.



This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.



After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.



God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.



He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.



In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws - he would make a Trump.



And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:



'My God… what… have… I… created?



If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set."



There is a lot here to like. Problem is: the dyed in the wool Trump fanatics just turn off, disengage and go their merry way. The concept of considered political debate (not that this piece is a good example of that) is alien to them. Not surprisingly they have so bought into the idea that he is not a professional politician they have become immune to rational discourse. His failings both as a politician and as a human being are sublimated to their wild - eyed devotion to what they perceive as the cause. They are, in concert with Trump, against things, never actually for anything. 



Fortunately, these people will not decide the next election - this coming November. Elections are won by the voters in the middle. Last time they decided to let the amateur have a go. They were perfectly entitled to do so. And, those who oppose the President are handicapped by the need to win the middle back without alienating them by pointing out the idiocy of their choice four years ago. 



Human nature doesn't change all that much. To overcome the advantages given to the incumbent, the opposition will have to present an agenda for change:  and do it in such a way as to avoid the traps Trump will surely spring along the way. They may be helped by the death of George Floyd and a virus. 



For my entertainment I usually record and watch Pro Football Talk with Mike Florio and Chris Simms.  They devoted an entire two hour session yesterday to discussing the impact on the NFL (whose players are largely black) of the events in Minneapolis.  They conclude that things have to change.  And change, now. Like today.



We have heard this before and the number of false dawns is only surpassed by the number of black Americans who have died whilst in the hands of the police.  There will be an NFL season - whether it will be a tribute to improving race relations remains to be seen.

President Trump can still win in November, no matter how unlikely that may seem today

Sunday, May 31, 2020

Ferguson's Last Hurrah




Niall Ferguson Commentator
Sunday May 24 2020  The Sunday Times



My crystal ball missed Brexit but got Donald Trump



Those who make predictions must keep a tally. So how did I do?



It has been nearly 4½ years since I began writing this column, which works out at roughly 240,000 words altogether. As these will be my last words in these pages, it’s time to look back and take stock. If part of your job is to be a pundit then, as the Pennsylvania University political scientist Philip Tetlock argues in Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, you need to keep score.”



I have tried to find out why Ferguson is leaving the paper but can find nothing at present. This is a shame. I always read his column, mostly because he writes well and often offers an alternative analysis to the generally accepted view. 



Ferguson reminds us that on the two big issues during his sojourn at the Sunday Time, namely Brexit and Donald Trump, he got it wrong. 



On Brexit he wrote that the idea that Britain can separate itself from Europe is an illusion. Without the UK the future of Europe would be one of escalating instability.



Bonking Boris (even in the middle of a Covid 19 crisis) is nothing if he is not at least consistent. News today is that he rejects (again and as usual) any extension to the Brexit deadline. This is despite the news that Michel Barnier (EU Brexit supremo) has been touting the idea of a two year extension to all and sundry opposition parties in the UK. 



He reminds us that he called Brexiteers Angloonies and happy morons  and he predicted a stairway to hell or at least a recession and he got it wrong.  Full marks for fessing up!



I wish he had spent some time explaining why and how he got it so wrong. 



Meanwhile Boris government seems unable to function without his favourite flunky:






And whilst the bodies pile up Boris learns to play the violin whilst his government goes up in smoke. And the hits just keep on coming! 









Niall hints at the problem.  Perhaps I can help him out.  The record seems fairly clear.  The folks who voted for Brexit were as he describes.  Donald Trump simply borrowed their play book and ran the same offence.



Not beholden to the folks who voted, I have no problem in reminding everyone that in general Brexit happened because the British public (or at least a large proportion of it) were too stupid to realise what Brexit really means.  They still don’t, for no matter how much Boris blusters real Brexit will not happen until at least the end of the year.  By that time we may be so stupefied by Covid 19 that the idiots who voted for Brexit may have forgotten and simply blame the fact that we are going to hell in a handcart on the virus.  If Boris is very lucky, this may work.  If not he’s had it.  Niall reminds the readers that he advised David Cameron (remember him?) to reject the risible terms that the EU leaders offered him in February on EU migrants “eligibility for benefits”.  He should have called their bluff and backed Brexit.  (put that in your pipe and smoke it Merkle/Macron!)  Alas, he dithered and let Boris and Michael Gove out-think-out-manouever-and-out-smart him.  Result: the inmates are now in charge of the asylum.



Turning to Niall’s Trumpian analysis:  in April 2016 he predicted the bursting of the Trump bubble.  Sometimes he went against the prevailing mood by reminding us that Trump has the face that fits the ugly mood in America (very prophetic)  -mainly because the Republican voters are actually worse off than in the previous presidential election.



Ferguson says. “I was against Trump.  I signed  the “never Trump” letter.  He condemned Trump’s open expressions of racial prejudice and xenophobia.  But, he also clearly saw the appeal:  the white middle-classes may stay at home, the young won’t be bothered to turn out for Hillary and the older voters will turn out for Trump,just as their English counterparts did for Brexit.



To celebrate his first year, Ferguson compares the chances of Trump with the Chicago Cubs - the outsiders who had just won the World Series..  he can win if there is a differential in turnout between his supporters and Clinton’s in the battleground states comparable to the age and ethnicity-based differentials in the UK referendum.  



That’s just about what happened.



The tragedy is that the old duffers who propelled Trump to the White House and the and Nigel Farage into cloud-cuckoo land euphoria, will not be around to reap the whirlwind.  The Covid 19 may well have the last laugh on Brexit and Trump.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

2020-21 Chiefs Draft


Chiefs draft and the NFL season looking forward.

With the caveat that there may be no season to look forward to at all!

This may well turn out to be the oddest season ever. With the coronavirus overseeing all efforts, predicting what may or may not happen to the Chiefs in 2020 could end up being more difficult than picking the winner of the Grand National - hang on, that will be easy, there isn't one this year because of the coronavirus!

Everything I see, hear or read confirms that the NFL powers that be are determined to produce some sort of season this year. They will move heaven and earth to play the 256 games of a regular NFL season. The how is not understood or even likely to be decided until so many factors which at present are complete unknowns become much clearer.

Still we proceed as if the season will be played, or we all just do a Rip Van Winkle, wake up in Jan 2021 and pretend it was all a bad dream.

The Chief's draft was interesting to say the least. Picking last in round one they very unexpectedly grabbed a running back from LSU, Clyde Edwards-Hillaire. All the pundits said this as a major cock-up. Nobody picks a running back in round one, they are a dime a dozen and even Kareem Hunt was a a third round pick. So, what's the deal? The tribe have 20 of the 2019 Super Bowl winning team returning. They grab what they feel is the back which best fits their scheme and bugger the pundits! Result? The Chiefs offence now looks almost impossible to stop. Edwards-Hillaire can catch the ball on the swing pattern and block.  What's not to like?  The pundits now think it's a genius pick.

The rest of the draft looks solid, though not addressing the corner-back position until round six again has those supposedly in the know gasping for air. Truth is what the draft was supposed to provide was solid football players who can be developed. If only Edwards-Hillaire is on the field for the opening set of downs this year, that's not a problem. If any of the others make the 53 man roster and contribute great! If not? Not.

Much has been made of how the rest of the league will be playing catch up with the Chiefs already way ahead. Why? Because with a short pre-season every other team is at a big disadvantage. They will have to get better quickly or just stand on their side-line and gawp as the red wave breaks over their heads and all NFL stadia need larger scoreboards to accommodate the points racked up by the Big Red.

We are a long way from another Super Bowl appearance in February 2021,and talk of a Chiefs dynasty is premature, but we can live in hope and, for the first time in 50 years, expectation.

Those genii at Pro Football Talk, Florio and Simms, are convinced that there will be a season. The NFL in conjunction with the politicians will make sure that NFL football happens in 2020. They may be right – only time will tell.

Until then the Chiefs are best placed to do the improbable – if not the impossible - and repeat as Super Bowl Champions in Feb 2021. Chop til you drop!

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Bath


English for the English?

England can seem superficially familiar. After all they share their language, history and culture with most of the English-speaking world : and customs and mores are often just the same. However, it is still a foreign country unless you are a native. It is useful to remember this before you make a complete ass of yourself by recounting how the baseball players spend some time warming up before the game by shagging flies. (look it up). However,it is good to remember that that familiar England is largely the product of what I refer to as "the Americanisation of England, the roots of which can be traced to the second world War. Nowadays Jolly Old England has largely been replaced by an absence of any real pubs and a Mcdonald's restaurant on every High Street. To find it requires real effort. So:

And then I went to Bath. And, it is one of the oddest places in England, along with Milton Keynes, which is just a little bit more odd. Why so, I hear you cry? Well, in reverse order, Milton Keynes was planned to be odd - oddly enough. It used to be some useless fields in Buckinghamshire, but they could not leave well enough alone so they turned it into Milton Keynes. Actually the concept was not all that daft. Let's take some fairly worthless acreage in Buckinghamshire, which is not all that far from London, and turn it into a show-piece - a veritable architectural wonder. London over-spill gone mad. It is simply unlike anywhere else in England.

Because they had a blank slate upon which to indulge themselves (BTW when I type “they” what I mean is the authorities - the government- the urban planners - the idiots who design things in little offices with no windows and less than fragrant ambience - the powers that be. If I mean something else I will tell you before you get confused) they drew on the worst of all worlds. I can see what they were thinking - let’s try to make Milton Keynes look like those really neat American cities with loads of parking in front of the stores and offices. And then they threw in the very un-American round-a-bouts just to make it interesting! The result is a monstrosity of a hodgepodge.

Mind you my opinion is only based on one brief visit. Once was enough.

Before the advent of sat nav negotiating MK was almost impossible because everything looks the same. There are no discernable features or landmarks to take your bearings from. You drive from one roundabout to another which looks just like the one you left 30 seconds ago. Most frustrating of all was the fact that I was only there on an errand for number two son. I left almost wishing he hadn't been born.

On the plus side MK is not too far away - just pass Cambridge and keep going for a bit. Actually it's about 125 miles - you go past Cambridge and Bedford and you just kind of run into it. Takes a couple of hours at the most.

I digress. I really want to discuss Bath or as the Romans called it Aqua Sulis. Bath is the largest city in the county of Somerset, England, known for and named after its Roman-built baths. In 2011, the population was 88,859. Bath is in the valley of the River Avon, 97 miles west of London and 11 miles south-east of Bristol.

It is altogether much farther than Milton Keynes, both in distance and in substance. Yet there are some surprising similarities. Let's do the differences first.

They are far more interesting.

As Milton Keynes is very new, Bath is very old. But, even though the Romans found solace in the mineral waters, the real boom in Bath 's fortunes was very much an eighteenth century phenomenon.

Bath is the largest city in the county of Somerset, England, known for and named after its Roman-built baths. In 2011, the population was 88,859.[2] Bath is in the valley of the River Avon, 97 miles (156 km) west of London and 11 miles (18 km) south-east of Bristol. The city became a World Heritage site in 1987.

The city became a spa with the Latin name Aquae Sulis ("the waters of Sul") c. 60 AD when the Romans built baths and a temple in the valley of the River Avon, although hot springs were known even before then.

Bath Abbey was founded in the 7th century and became a religious centre; the building was rebuilt in the 12th and 16th centuries. In the 17th century, claims were made for the curative properties of water from the springs, and Bath became popular as a spa town in the Georgian era. Georgian architecture, crafted from Bath stone, includes the Royal Crescent, Circus, Pump Room and Assembly Rooms where Beau Nash presided over the city's social life from 1705 until his death in 1761.

Many of the streets and squares were laid out by John Wood, the Elder, and in the 18th century the city became fashionable and the population grew. Jane Austen lived in Bath in the early 19th century. Further building was undertaken in the 19th century and following the Bath Blitz in World War II.

By road it's actually easier to get to Bath than Milton Keynes, it just takes longer. Take the A11 M11 to the M25, skirt London to the M4, drive west and you can't miss it, even though the last 20 miles off the M4 is a little bit tricky. From the M4 the process is to climb a series of hills until you can look down from the heights to find Bath nestled in a valley. A river runs through it. It's called, not surprisingly, the Avon. I've lost track of the number of rivers in England named Avon. For a very good reason, there are 5 Avons in England (including the more famous one in Warwickshire - Shakespeare country) 3 in Scotland and one in Wales - which translates as river river in Welsh. The result is that V
Bath lies in a bowl with fairly steep hills forming the rim.

Using my sat nav I went straight to my hotel. There ended the easy bit.

As I was on my own, I had booked a budget hotel. Budget, but not too far from the centre of Bath. OK not budget - cheap. I succeeded geographically speaking. A short walk led me to what I perceived to be Bath. I wandered around for 10 minutes to get my bearings. Secure in the knowledge that I could find my way back to the hotel, I tried Google maps to locate the far more salubrious guest house my friends had booked.

2I like to think that I'm pretty au fait with technology. My phone made a fool of me. That and my over - optimistic appraisal of standard facilities available at budget hotels in Bath. I was trying to use the "walk feature" of Google maps to find my way to the aforesaid friend's guest house. Big mistake. I got nowhere: but did succeed in almost draining the battery. Back at the hotel I found they had no USB connection points. I had to sit in the car with the engine running to get some charge into the phone. Good thing I had lots of petrol. After getting some charge into the phone I decided to try again. Firing up Google maps I set off and found that the walk setting on Google maps is puppy plop. I wandered about for nearly an hour and achieved nothing except for coming to the realisation that Bath is one weird place.

All the buildings are made of the same material - a sort of cream - coloured sandstone. I mean all as in every building actually looks the same. It's like wandering around inside a straw-coloured globe. Added to this there are no real street signs. Now plug in the absence of any consideration of tourists. I tried to buy a map, thinking I could navigate by the old-school method. There are no curio shops or even a news agents. They simply do not exist in Bath.

Fortunately, I managed to contact my friends whose train was somehow lost and they had not even made it to the Bath station. That was good really, for I had no idea where the station was and no map with which to find it. Magic.

Finally I got a message from the travellers saying they were going to their guest house and I should meet them there. I was like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.

Summing up: I was effectively lost, tired, bewildered and without any means of either finding my friends or returning to my hotel.

At this point, Bath had lost what little appeal it may have ever had. I was in the last chance saloon. I managed to Google taxis in Bath. I managed to get them to answer the phone - eventually. Now I had to explain where I was, without any reference to landmarks or a street sign. (did I mention that Bath does not do street signs or any discernable help to tourists at all?)

Thought I did.

11The best I could do is say that I was on a sort of main drag just outside the entrance to some sort of park. I answered the questions the dispatcher asked and waited with a hopeful look of gormless optimism radiating from my red, embarrassed face. And I waited. And waited. Nothing happened. I called again. I was told my taxi was there. It clearly wasn't. Dispatcher had another idea where I was. I waited and waited and waited. Some time later what looked like might be a taxi came down the road, so I flagged it down. It was a taxi, but not mine! I waited some more, rang the dispatcher again, and waited. (have I mentioned that the O2 mobile signal in Bath is pants?) By, what I can only construe as a miracle, a taxi arrived. The driver looked as perplexed as I. He explained that in the summer when the university was on vacation the availability of taxis was very poor. (shit, buddy you're telling me!) I resisted the temptation to ask about the absence of street signs and the plight of the unsuspecting tourist who may be visiting your fair community.

To further improve my chances of not repeating the fruitless efforts to navigate the maze which passes for Bath: I watched carefully as the taxi wove its way to my destination, hoping this may benefit me in the near future. It did serve to reinforce my mantra that Bath is weird and I was well and truly lost.

We went for a nice meal in the evening and to my great relief we were so close to my hotel that I was confident enough to send the others off in a taxi and walk back to the hotel.

Over the next few days I gradually got the hang of Bath. Bath has no cathedral, but since there is a Bishop of Bath and Wells there is Bath Abbey - which serves the same purpose. It's almost central and easy to find. And you can spit and hit the Roman baths from the west door. A five minute walk will cross the Pulteney bridge, and another hundred yards, turn left on Henrietta Street and on the right is the Redcar Hotel.

As long as I didn't stray too far from these obvious landmarks, I was fine. We did the obligatory sightseeing bus trip, and I distinctly remember thinking this looks familiar, I must have been lost around here - somewhere. We also did the Skyline sightseeing tour and from that perspective a far greater understanding of the geographical features of Bath was gained.

On reflection I realised that after my first excursion and return to charge my phone, I should have found the post code for my friend's guest-house and driven there and waited for them to show up. That would have been a far more sensible plan. Too bad I wasn't smart enough to see that at the time. As I recall my thought process I think I was put off by the fact that the train carrying friends was late. Would that I had simply asked at the desk for directions to the station perhaps I might have saved my poor feet and learned some humility at the same time. I did not.

(aside : I have learned that Google docs does not like the subjunctive mood, it constantly underlies it as an error. Numpties! )

We had a very pleasant meal and next morning I met the others just outside the Roman baths. They queued to get in, but I had to hit the road. I checked out and retraced my route back to Norfolk. 

Good thing it is Normal for Norfolk!




Saturday, May 02, 2020

A Bottle of Raffia-Covered Chianti and the Stars and Bars


Very Young - Very Foolish

Odd how time and distance can play tricks with both recollection and total recall. I was sure I’d written about one of the defining moments of my late teens – but now I find that I have not. Or at least if I have, I can’t find it.

Part of the problem with trying to remedy a poor memory and/or poor organisational skills is that time is a poor mnemonic. I’m winding the clock back to the late-sixties. And, I’m trying to get specific about time and place. Not very successfully, with either in truth.

Let’s work backwards from what I’m sure I know. Well, pretty sure anyhow. I was working at 70-Hi Drive-In on Noland Road and 39th Street in Independence, Missouri. Of that, I’m positive. Larry Stoner was my Bun-Boy. (lest the alliterative connotations become too complex, let me explain. In order to produce good quality burgers, the buns needed to be placed on the warm grill for a short time. This was the Bun-Boy’s job. The cooked burgers were then placed in the warmed buns and wrapped in grease-proof paper by the Bun-Boy ready for dispatch – simples).

Reece Isbell had a big old Oldsmobile. Any way you slice it: it was big. Somebody, and it was usually Bun-Boy who had these ideas, decided we should go to New Orleans. Precisely why, as I recall, was never actually explained. I believe it had something to do with the ubiquitous Spring Break. So, to New Orleans we went.

The year is 1965. We were young and particularly foolish: we had no real idea of the time and distance involved. Don’t forget this is well before the advent of the interstate road network. Somehow we came to the improbable realization that all we had to do was go south on US 71 and keep going.

At that time, US 71 ran right through Kansas City, but it conveniently split north of the Missouri river to form Highway 71 By-pass - now Missouri Highway 291, which runs from north of Liberty, Mo. to south of Harrisonville Mo.

The southern terminus of US 71 is in Louisiana, between Port Barre and Krotz Springs, Louisiana, at an intersection with U.S. 190, so I discovered on Google.The highway follows a northwesterly course through Louisiana, passing through the communities of Alexandria, Montgomery, Coushatta, and Shreveport. From its southern terminus to Shreveport, US 71 has largely been superseded by Interstate 49 - which is eventually planned to roughly follow the US 71 alignment as far north as Kansas City, Missouri. After Shreveport, US 71 follows a northerly course, crossing into Arkansas just north of Ida, Louisiana.

Bottom line, in any era - it’s a long way to New Orleans and without modern roads it takes a long time. Even today, with the interstate network fully operational it is about a 13 hour drive. My research tells me we did it in 15 hours and that must have been some kind of record for the time!
My researchers are trying to confirm the dates. I’m pretty sure it was spring break 1965. So, whilst it was common practice for college students to head to Florida for Spring Break we, being just as poor as we were stupid, decided New Orleans would do just as well. The plan was to share the driving in shifts. It must have been the Memorial Day weekend as Reece wasn’t working. I think we left about 4 or 5 in the afternoon. I do remember taking a shift at driving whilst it was still a bit light. I do remember falling asleep on the back seat. Those old Oldsmobiles were very roomy!
During my next driving stint we were deep in the Ozarks. The road was narrow with many bends, and some of them were quite sharp. It must have been dark by then.
I distinctly remember closing my eyes for just a few seconds, opening them, closing them for another few seconds, realising that nothing terrible had happened, closing them for a bit longer and finally jolting awake as the car lurched into the gravel at the side of the road. The other two woke up immediately. I was banned from driving.

We went on into Louisiana. I had lost my sense of time and place. We were hungry. I spied a McDonalds. We stopped - at least at McD you always know what you are getting. I can remember standing at the counter and the mouth of the girl on the other side moving and a sound being produced. It did not ring any bells. I can distinctly remember thinking, “Why can I not understand this person, after all we are still in America,” Fact was, we were not - we were in deep south Louisiana, where English is barely spoken.

I had this confirmed some years later when I was invited by Uncle Sam to avail myself of the opportunity to serve my country and see the world - via Ft Polk, Louisiana. We had a large number of local boys in our basic training company. Their acquaintance with the English language was only passing. They were super-fluent in Cajun French with last names like LeRoux, Fontenot, Benoit and Broussard and I was immediately reminded of the girl in McDonalds.

Eager to see the sights we drove though Lake Charles - which Google conveniently tells us:
Distance from Lake Charles to New Orleans: There are 189.03 miles from Lake Charles to New Orleans in east direction and 205 miles (329.92 kilometers) by car, following the I-10 and US-90 E route. Lake Charles and New Orleans are 3 hours 19 mins far apart, if you drive non-stop . From this I conclude it was about noon when we went through Lake Charles and maybe three in the afternoon when we hit Canal Street. We had no money for a motel room, so we took turns changing out of the grubby clothes we had on into what we assumed would wow the local girls into immediate submission. We found Bourbon Street and saw the sights. We cruised Canal Street for some hours. We mooched around Bourbon Street whilst it got progressively darker and rowdier. We had a great time. We had no luck -girl-wise - no change there then.

Let me readily confess that I like New Orleans. Despite the fact that they don’t really speak English the natives are unerringly friendly and approachable. Had they known that we were effectively broke and exceedingly impoverished free-loaders, perhaps things might have been different. But we must have been lucky as we had a great time just wandering around.

My recollection is that eventually we got so tired that we had to get a room. We found the cheapest motel ever in St Charles and grabbed some much needed shut-eye. Knowing that what goes up, must come down (or perhaps what drives to New Orleans must drive back to Independence might be more accurate) we had another quick look around and bought some souvenirs to show the folks back home. Larry Dean had his heart set on a Forget Hell license plate. This has a caricature of a Confederate Veteran holding a banner which says “Forget Hell” . I insisted that we buy a cheap raffia covered bottle of Chainit to drink on the way back. He has not now and will not ever forgive me for being so selfish. (It was my money!)

I reckon we left in the afternoon with Reece and Larry doing the driving and me curled up on the back seat. A fact of which they are overly-fond of reminding me. Getting to New Orleans was hard. Getting back was harder still and far more tedious.

During the first part of the long road home I had spent a few exhausting hours trying to remove the cork from the Chianti bottle and having to listen to Stoner bitch about not having his Forget Hell license plate. I never did get the cork out completely, but I did manage to cut into it with a pen-knife and poke most of the cork down into the bottle. Therefore if you had a swig you mostly got a mouth-full of cork bits with a smidgen of Chianti to boot. Tasted like it came from a tourist trap - which, of course, it did.

At some point in the wee hours, the boys got so exhausted that they had to pull over. My offer to take a spell at the wheel was rudely dismissed, so I got the Stars and Bars, climbed out on the lid of the Oldsmobile trunk (very copious indeed) and went to sleep. The boys were cutting Z’s in the car. 

I was awoken by the sound of cars arriving and strange voices. We were parked in a kind of public picnic area somewhere deep in the Arkansas Ozarks. I half woke up, looked at the Deliverance-types who had pulled in, wrapped the flag more tightly around me (thinking that deep in Arkansas even the baddest of the bad would not harm a kid wrapped in the holy flag). And, I was right. The other two chickens were in the car soiling their underpants.

We made it back - I have no sensible estimate of how long it took.

The flag eventually ended up in Pa Hall’s basement where it hung for many years and oversaw many a party and drinking session - with the odd game of pool thrown in for fun.

And the rest, as they say, is legend.

I'm just waiting for those other two to tell me I got this all wrong and set the record straight!