Saturday, January 18, 2020

NFL Play-offs 2020




We’re down to the last eight, and the Chiefs are in it!

My picks:  49ers to beat the Vikings (Viks were excellent but lightning doesn't strike twice - at least not in the NFL.  At San Fran, the home team wins. Shame, I’d love to have a Chiefs - Vikings Super Bowl again so we can humiliate them as we did in 1970.  49ers by 14.

Ravens to beat Titans:  I hate this pick cause I’d love the Chiefs to host the AFL Championship game, but my head says the Ravens will, again with home field advantage, be too strong for the “ground them into the dirt” Titans.  Ravens by a touchdown.

Packers lose to the Seahawks: again for sentimental reasons I’d like the Pack to win so we can beat them in the Super Bowl and avenge our only Super Bowl loss.  But, the Shitehawks are just too strong and even on the road should have enough defense to whop the Packers even with Aaron Rodgers. Seahawks by 10.

Chiefs mash the Texans.  I was at Arrowhead when we lost to them.  It was ugly, Mahomes was injured and the defense was having a hard time doing anything other than getting eleven healthy players on the field. This time Andy Reid has a week off to prepare and he will do a real number on Desean Watson.  A healthy Chiefs team could go all the way. We win and win big. Chiefs by 14.

Update 49ers won, Packers won, Titans upset the Ravens, Chiefs won a wild one v the Texans. 

The 49ers host the pack and the Chiefs host Tennessee in the championship games. 

My best guesses: the 49ers will beat the Packers at home, the Chiefs will be too good for the Titans at home. So the Super Bowl will be San Francisco v Kansas City.

Bonking Boris Rules

Explaining Boris' success isn't as difficult as it might seem. 

Firstly, let's examine the opposition. There was the Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbin. Corbin's Labour started with high hopes, mostly because at the previous election, called by Teresa May, they had done quite well. So well that the Tories were denied an overall majority and Corbo seemed to be quite popular with the electorate. He was a bit of a fresh face and the Labour vote held up in their strongholds. Enter the European elections of 2019. The Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats both did much better than Labour whose vote collapsed to about 11%. The Tories did even worse. The Labour bubble had truly burst. Therefore, entering the campaign Labour was struggling. Not only did their announced position on Brexit look outdated and irresponsible, but Corbo's aversion to taking sides - preferring to portray himself as an honest broker - now, with hindsight, only made him seem indecisive. Entering the campaign Labour clearly had a lot of work to do. 

Next, the Liberal Democrats. After a strong showing in the Euro elections, and with a new leader (Jo Swindon) in place things were looking promising for a real Lib - Dem revival. On policy, Jo unequivocally informed voters that if she won Brexit would be cancelled. This was a clear policy and put the Lib Dems diametrically in opposition to both the Tories and the Brexit Party. Rallying the support of remainders became the be all and end all of the Liberal Democrats. 

The Brexit Party, though only recently formed, and very much the Nigel Farage Party, were instrumental in delivering the Conservative victory. The day that Nigel got so scared by the Liberal Democrats that he decided to effectively opt out and pull his candidates in Conservative seats the election was effectively over and Christmas came early for Boris. 

The Scottish National party were adept at being the fly in the ointment. In doing so, and in particular avoiding the temptation to do deals with Labour or the Liberal Democrats, they maintained their racial purity and cleaned up north of the border. 

The fly in most other people's ointment was supplied by the Democratic Unionists. For Teresa May they were the lifeboat that allowed her to stagger from crisis to crisis in persuit of the illusion of her Brexit deal. Some might argue that they were the conscience of the Tories and kept them from a really bad deal. This holdeth no water as Boris was to conclude after he cut them loose in making his deal with the EU. They went on to lose ground to all the other NI parties in the Boris election. 

Other smaller parties such as the Greens (one MP) plaid crymu (a few MPs) and Sinn Fein (again a few successes - chiefly at the expense of the Ulster UNIONISTS) - Never have understood why they are allowed to stand in elections when they refuse to take their seats. Crazy. 

Analysis 

Much has been made of the imminent demise of the Labour Party. Their election strategy was flawed and chaotic. The voters simply wanted to get Brexit done and Labour had no answer to this simplistic (though essentially flawed) slogan. Therefore, they were embarrassed and humbled by the collapse of their core vote, and confused the public over and over with slogans and proposals which were essentially unrealistic and unbelievable. Boris believes that he can hold on to these new Conservative voters. Time will tell. 

The Tories fell in the Brexit barrel of excrement and came up smelling of roses. They hijacked the Brexit Party vote and used the Herr Goebbles technique of simply repeating the same lie over and over to great success. The lie, of course, is that brexit will be done. False. Only the first stage will be done and the tough stuff is yet to come. Moving on, Boris has boxed himself in by ruling out any extension to the implementation period. My guess is that the same numpties who thought Britain was leaving the EU the day after the original vote will again be made boringly numb by the blank cheque they handed Boris. How the Tories handle the failure of expectations will colour 2020. Bang on! 

The Brexit Party will hang around vainly trying to hold Boris to a pure Brexit, then disappear. The Scots will revolt. They may hold more cards than they think. By selling out the Ulster Unionists, Boris may find, too late, that he needs them to prevent the Irish from leaving the Union. The Liberal Democrats will lick their wounds and return to the grassroots campaigning they are good at. They will revive slowly and painfully. 

2020 will be interesting. The Boris honeymoon (he has just returned from Mystique) may last a few weeks. By May with the weather improving Boris' gang will be headed in the opposite direction.