Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Chiefs Sumble at the last hurdle

 

Chiefs run, stumble, fall flat on their asses, limp back to K C, not just beaten but embarrassed.


Personally I got it wrong, very wrong. I thought that the complete lack of an offensive line, whilst not ideal, would be easy to overcome. How wrong could you get! I have seen a stat showing that Mahomes ran 458 yards in the game. Only a few of them were past the line of scrimmage, mostly he ran for his life. The idea that they could play quite so poorly was just not realistic. How wrong can you get? What degree of wrongness would you prefer?


Florio and Sims on Pro Football Talk agree that the officials were very poor and the Bucs had a great plan to wind up Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu. And it worked. But, the better team won. And they did it with great defense and just enough offense to keep the Chiefs off balance all night.


Make no mistake no team with a non - existent offensive line and receivers who dropped more balls in one game than they have in 16 weeks was ever likely to win the Super Bowl. Then there are the penalties.


This is a tough one. If you complain about the officials it just sounds like sour grapes. And, so the accepted wisdom goes, poor calls happen and in a blow out they make hardly any difference. I disagree. No-one can predict what might happen in an alternative universe, but to contend that bad calls have hardly any effect is as simplistic as it is erroneous. Just imagine if the Mathieu interception had been allowed to stand. The game is changed dramatically. Who knows what might happen next? The refs have a lot to ponder and I believe that the Chiefs will be asking the league to look at some of the calls to try to improve the situation for other teams. My guess. Chiefs still lose by at least 10 points.


We move on.


But before we do some explanation of how things went so horribly wrong is required.


Firstly Mahomes was injured far more than we thought. The turf toe that seemed only an inconvenience turned out to be a debilitating, game changing problem. With that said, he played quite well all things considered. It was not enough, for he got precious little support from his offensive buddies. Even the usually reliable receiving corps had the dropsies.


The twitteratti are smoking with condemnation of Bret Veitch, the Chiefs GM.

They confirm what many have suspected for many years. The Chief’s O-line is really not up to scratch and Veitch has done little in either the draft or free agency to fix it. It seems that both Reid and Veitch have been so enamoured with Mahomes that they really believed that he could overcome any problems with his brilliance. Perhaps on two good legs this may have been so, but the days of poor draft choices and free agents must be over. In 2018 the Chiefs had six picks. Only Derrick Nnadi has significantly contributed to the team’s success. Three are gone and two are just hanging on (Dorian O’Daniel and Armani Watts). 2019 was not much better. Veach traded round one pick for Frank Clark. Clark has been good, but not spectacularly good, especially in this year’s Super Bowl where he had one sack of Brady and then not much else. Mecole Hardman was drafted to be the possible replacement for Tyreek Hill and has contributed on special teams and occasionally as a wide-out. Safety Juan Thjornhill has been very good until he was injured and missed last year’s Super Bowl. He’s working his way back, but slowly.

Defensive tackle Khalen Saunders has had limited action. Cornerback Rashaud Fenton is only occasionally seen. Nick Allegriti has seen plenty of action - despite being a seventh round pick. Moving to 2020, the choice of Clyde Edwards-Hellaire as pick 32 was met with some skepticism by many, including me. He has been good. But, has he been first round good? - Willie Gay Junior was a top pick and has played - some. Next year will see if he is a boom or bust. The jury is still out on lineman Lucas Niang (opted out of the Covid-year), L’Jarius Sneed was a find from the fourth round and Mike Dana looked not bad until injured. The other pick - in the seventh round - Bo’Pete Keyes was inactive most of the season.


All in all, The GM just has not invested in keeping Mahomes either upright or healthy. This must stop.


Taken as a whole, the season was a litany of errors and missed opportunities. Even in games they won, the tribe were often relying on the big play offense to overcome a poor defense and - for the first time in a long time - special teams that did not really deliver. Tommy Townsend for one has a lot to make up for. Forgetting that he has had quite a good rookie year, in the big one he muffed big-time. Expect a real fight next year to see if he is the punter going forward.


Andy Reid has a plan. He expects some time off and then to evaluate the roster. He stressed that the team must not just be defined by one game. Unfortunately, this is the NFL and they will be evaluated by the Super Bowl loss. Super Bowl Winners: Kelce, Mahomes (qualified as he was more injured than we expected), CEH (who had a good game), Clark. Losers: the o-line, Reid, Townsend, Hardman, a plethora of penalties, and some very uncharacteristic dropped passes.

 The off season should be interesting

Wednesday, February 03, 2021

Run It Back

 



Chiefs Super Bowl Chances 2020-21



I have spent some time this week watching last year’s Super Bowl. Some things are real pointers as to how this Run it Back season may pan out.



Firstly, I was struck by how fortunate the Chiefs were to win last season. Behind for most of the game until 8 minutes left in the fourth, they somehow managed to find something great at just the right time.



The 49ers were unlucky, as well as out-played. Why did they lose? It’s an offensive league. Before the game the focus was on the San Francisco defensive front four and how they would dominate the Chiefs offensive line and make Patrick Mahomes run around scared all day – forcing bad throws and getting sacks. In fact, Mahomes was intercepted twice and missed a few receivers (at least in the first 32 minutes) and was sacked a few times. But critically, he had time to make the throw of the season to Hill for 40 yards – on a third and fifteen – and the rest, as they say, is history.



Fast-forward. How will the Bucs fare against the Tribe’s offensive fire-power? Is the Tampa pass rush as good as San Frans? Can Tampa sack Mahomes more than a few times? Can they pressure him into interceptions? Not likely. Not by a long shot. The Chiefs handled the Tampa rush quite well in the regular season game and I expect they will again. (Yes, I know they have injuries on the line, but somehow they always manage to find a way to protect Mahomes enough for him to make plays!)  Tampa will not be able to stop the Chiefs. I trust Reid and Spagnolo to scheme on both sides of the ball.



Again this season, just in time, the defence is coming good. They look as strong as last year on the defensive line with both Chris Jones and Frank Clark rounding into form at just the right time. This season’s secondary looks even stronger than the Super Bowl winning squad. Will Tom Brady be able to complete some passes? Yes, of course he will. Will he be able to hit the home-run ball? Not very likely, the Chiefs will pressure him and force a lot of short throws. They will sack him multiple times and hit him a few more and constantly force him out of his comfort zone. I can’t see the Bucs scoring more than 21 points. That will not be enough for the Chiefs as they will be good for 35+.



The coaching match-up is both interesting and crucial. Andy Reid does not lose with two weeks to prepare. Bruce Arians is in his first Super Bowl. The Buccaneers will be out-coached as well as out-played.

Am I being too optimistic?  Only time will tell, but there is a swagger about this team that refuses to go away.  I’m a believer.

What might derail the Run it Back tour? 

Injuries, particularly on both lines. The game is usually won or lost in the trenches. Super Bowl LV will be no exception. And, the Chiefs are quite short of replacements. In a two horse race the underdog always has a chance. For the Bucs to prevail they need everything to go their way, including the bounce of the odd - shaped ball. Whereas the Chiefs can win at 80 to 90 %of all factors. 

My prediction Chiefs by 10.

Reminds me of their first triumph. I took the Chiefs and gave 10 points. We all remember how that turned out. At the end I felt sorry for the Vikings. 65 TPT will shine again.