Sunday, May 31, 2020

Ferguson's Last Hurrah




Niall Ferguson Commentator
Sunday May 24 2020  The Sunday Times



My crystal ball missed Brexit but got Donald Trump



Those who make predictions must keep a tally. So how did I do?



It has been nearly 4½ years since I began writing this column, which works out at roughly 240,000 words altogether. As these will be my last words in these pages, it’s time to look back and take stock. If part of your job is to be a pundit then, as the Pennsylvania University political scientist Philip Tetlock argues in Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, you need to keep score.”



I have tried to find out why Ferguson is leaving the paper but can find nothing at present. This is a shame. I always read his column, mostly because he writes well and often offers an alternative analysis to the generally accepted view. 



Ferguson reminds us that on the two big issues during his sojourn at the Sunday Time, namely Brexit and Donald Trump, he got it wrong. 



On Brexit he wrote that the idea that Britain can separate itself from Europe is an illusion. Without the UK the future of Europe would be one of escalating instability.



Bonking Boris (even in the middle of a Covid 19 crisis) is nothing if he is not at least consistent. News today is that he rejects (again and as usual) any extension to the Brexit deadline. This is despite the news that Michel Barnier (EU Brexit supremo) has been touting the idea of a two year extension to all and sundry opposition parties in the UK. 



He reminds us that he called Brexiteers Angloonies and happy morons  and he predicted a stairway to hell or at least a recession and he got it wrong.  Full marks for fessing up!



I wish he had spent some time explaining why and how he got it so wrong. 



Meanwhile Boris government seems unable to function without his favourite flunky:






And whilst the bodies pile up Boris learns to play the violin whilst his government goes up in smoke. And the hits just keep on coming! 









Niall hints at the problem.  Perhaps I can help him out.  The record seems fairly clear.  The folks who voted for Brexit were as he describes.  Donald Trump simply borrowed their play book and ran the same offence.



Not beholden to the folks who voted, I have no problem in reminding everyone that in general Brexit happened because the British public (or at least a large proportion of it) were too stupid to realise what Brexit really means.  They still don’t, for no matter how much Boris blusters real Brexit will not happen until at least the end of the year.  By that time we may be so stupefied by Covid 19 that the idiots who voted for Brexit may have forgotten and simply blame the fact that we are going to hell in a handcart on the virus.  If Boris is very lucky, this may work.  If not he’s had it.  Niall reminds the readers that he advised David Cameron (remember him?) to reject the risible terms that the EU leaders offered him in February on EU migrants “eligibility for benefits”.  He should have called their bluff and backed Brexit.  (put that in your pipe and smoke it Merkle/Macron!)  Alas, he dithered and let Boris and Michael Gove out-think-out-manouever-and-out-smart him.  Result: the inmates are now in charge of the asylum.



Turning to Niall’s Trumpian analysis:  in April 2016 he predicted the bursting of the Trump bubble.  Sometimes he went against the prevailing mood by reminding us that Trump has the face that fits the ugly mood in America (very prophetic)  -mainly because the Republican voters are actually worse off than in the previous presidential election.



Ferguson says. “I was against Trump.  I signed  the “never Trump” letter.  He condemned Trump’s open expressions of racial prejudice and xenophobia.  But, he also clearly saw the appeal:  the white middle-classes may stay at home, the young won’t be bothered to turn out for Hillary and the older voters will turn out for Trump,just as their English counterparts did for Brexit.



To celebrate his first year, Ferguson compares the chances of Trump with the Chicago Cubs - the outsiders who had just won the World Series..  he can win if there is a differential in turnout between his supporters and Clinton’s in the battleground states comparable to the age and ethnicity-based differentials in the UK referendum.  



That’s just about what happened.



The tragedy is that the old duffers who propelled Trump to the White House and the and Nigel Farage into cloud-cuckoo land euphoria, will not be around to reap the whirlwind.  The Covid 19 may well have the last laugh on Brexit and Trump.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

2020-21 Chiefs Draft


Chiefs draft and the NFL season looking forward.

With the caveat that there may be no season to look forward to at all!

This may well turn out to be the oddest season ever. With the coronavirus overseeing all efforts, predicting what may or may not happen to the Chiefs in 2020 could end up being more difficult than picking the winner of the Grand National - hang on, that will be easy, there isn't one this year because of the coronavirus!

Everything I see, hear or read confirms that the NFL powers that be are determined to produce some sort of season this year. They will move heaven and earth to play the 256 games of a regular NFL season. The how is not understood or even likely to be decided until so many factors which at present are complete unknowns become much clearer.

Still we proceed as if the season will be played, or we all just do a Rip Van Winkle, wake up in Jan 2021 and pretend it was all a bad dream.

The Chief's draft was interesting to say the least. Picking last in round one they very unexpectedly grabbed a running back from LSU, Clyde Edwards-Hillaire. All the pundits said this as a major cock-up. Nobody picks a running back in round one, they are a dime a dozen and even Kareem Hunt was a a third round pick. So, what's the deal? The tribe have 20 of the 2019 Super Bowl winning team returning. They grab what they feel is the back which best fits their scheme and bugger the pundits! Result? The Chiefs offence now looks almost impossible to stop. Edwards-Hillaire can catch the ball on the swing pattern and block.  What's not to like?  The pundits now think it's a genius pick.

The rest of the draft looks solid, though not addressing the corner-back position until round six again has those supposedly in the know gasping for air. Truth is what the draft was supposed to provide was solid football players who can be developed. If only Edwards-Hillaire is on the field for the opening set of downs this year, that's not a problem. If any of the others make the 53 man roster and contribute great! If not? Not.

Much has been made of how the rest of the league will be playing catch up with the Chiefs already way ahead. Why? Because with a short pre-season every other team is at a big disadvantage. They will have to get better quickly or just stand on their side-line and gawp as the red wave breaks over their heads and all NFL stadia need larger scoreboards to accommodate the points racked up by the Big Red.

We are a long way from another Super Bowl appearance in February 2021,and talk of a Chiefs dynasty is premature, but we can live in hope and, for the first time in 50 years, expectation.

Those genii at Pro Football Talk, Florio and Simms, are convinced that there will be a season. The NFL in conjunction with the politicians will make sure that NFL football happens in 2020. They may be right – only time will tell.

Until then the Chiefs are best placed to do the improbable – if not the impossible - and repeat as Super Bowl Champions in Feb 2021. Chop til you drop!

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Bath


English for the English?

England can seem superficially familiar. After all they share their language, history and culture with most of the English-speaking world : and customs and mores are often just the same. However, it is still a foreign country unless you are a native. It is useful to remember this before you make a complete ass of yourself by recounting how the baseball players spend some time warming up before the game by shagging flies. (look it up). However,it is good to remember that that familiar England is largely the product of what I refer to as "the Americanisation of England, the roots of which can be traced to the second world War. Nowadays Jolly Old England has largely been replaced by an absence of any real pubs and a Mcdonald's restaurant on every High Street. To find it requires real effort. So:

And then I went to Bath. And, it is one of the oddest places in England, along with Milton Keynes, which is just a little bit more odd. Why so, I hear you cry? Well, in reverse order, Milton Keynes was planned to be odd - oddly enough. It used to be some useless fields in Buckinghamshire, but they could not leave well enough alone so they turned it into Milton Keynes. Actually the concept was not all that daft. Let's take some fairly worthless acreage in Buckinghamshire, which is not all that far from London, and turn it into a show-piece - a veritable architectural wonder. London over-spill gone mad. It is simply unlike anywhere else in England.

Because they had a blank slate upon which to indulge themselves (BTW when I type “they” what I mean is the authorities - the government- the urban planners - the idiots who design things in little offices with no windows and less than fragrant ambience - the powers that be. If I mean something else I will tell you before you get confused) they drew on the worst of all worlds. I can see what they were thinking - let’s try to make Milton Keynes look like those really neat American cities with loads of parking in front of the stores and offices. And then they threw in the very un-American round-a-bouts just to make it interesting! The result is a monstrosity of a hodgepodge.

Mind you my opinion is only based on one brief visit. Once was enough.

Before the advent of sat nav negotiating MK was almost impossible because everything looks the same. There are no discernable features or landmarks to take your bearings from. You drive from one roundabout to another which looks just like the one you left 30 seconds ago. Most frustrating of all was the fact that I was only there on an errand for number two son. I left almost wishing he hadn't been born.

On the plus side MK is not too far away - just pass Cambridge and keep going for a bit. Actually it's about 125 miles - you go past Cambridge and Bedford and you just kind of run into it. Takes a couple of hours at the most.

I digress. I really want to discuss Bath or as the Romans called it Aqua Sulis. Bath is the largest city in the county of Somerset, England, known for and named after its Roman-built baths. In 2011, the population was 88,859. Bath is in the valley of the River Avon, 97 miles west of London and 11 miles south-east of Bristol.

It is altogether much farther than Milton Keynes, both in distance and in substance. Yet there are some surprising similarities. Let's do the differences first.

They are far more interesting.

As Milton Keynes is very new, Bath is very old. But, even though the Romans found solace in the mineral waters, the real boom in Bath 's fortunes was very much an eighteenth century phenomenon.

Bath is the largest city in the county of Somerset, England, known for and named after its Roman-built baths. In 2011, the population was 88,859.[2] Bath is in the valley of the River Avon, 97 miles (156 km) west of London and 11 miles (18 km) south-east of Bristol. The city became a World Heritage site in 1987.

The city became a spa with the Latin name Aquae Sulis ("the waters of Sul") c. 60 AD when the Romans built baths and a temple in the valley of the River Avon, although hot springs were known even before then.

Bath Abbey was founded in the 7th century and became a religious centre; the building was rebuilt in the 12th and 16th centuries. In the 17th century, claims were made for the curative properties of water from the springs, and Bath became popular as a spa town in the Georgian era. Georgian architecture, crafted from Bath stone, includes the Royal Crescent, Circus, Pump Room and Assembly Rooms where Beau Nash presided over the city's social life from 1705 until his death in 1761.

Many of the streets and squares were laid out by John Wood, the Elder, and in the 18th century the city became fashionable and the population grew. Jane Austen lived in Bath in the early 19th century. Further building was undertaken in the 19th century and following the Bath Blitz in World War II.

By road it's actually easier to get to Bath than Milton Keynes, it just takes longer. Take the A11 M11 to the M25, skirt London to the M4, drive west and you can't miss it, even though the last 20 miles off the M4 is a little bit tricky. From the M4 the process is to climb a series of hills until you can look down from the heights to find Bath nestled in a valley. A river runs through it. It's called, not surprisingly, the Avon. I've lost track of the number of rivers in England named Avon. For a very good reason, there are 5 Avons in England (including the more famous one in Warwickshire - Shakespeare country) 3 in Scotland and one in Wales - which translates as river river in Welsh. The result is that V
Bath lies in a bowl with fairly steep hills forming the rim.

Using my sat nav I went straight to my hotel. There ended the easy bit.

As I was on my own, I had booked a budget hotel. Budget, but not too far from the centre of Bath. OK not budget - cheap. I succeeded geographically speaking. A short walk led me to what I perceived to be Bath. I wandered around for 10 minutes to get my bearings. Secure in the knowledge that I could find my way back to the hotel, I tried Google maps to locate the far more salubrious guest house my friends had booked.

2I like to think that I'm pretty au fait with technology. My phone made a fool of me. That and my over - optimistic appraisal of standard facilities available at budget hotels in Bath. I was trying to use the "walk feature" of Google maps to find my way to the aforesaid friend's guest house. Big mistake. I got nowhere: but did succeed in almost draining the battery. Back at the hotel I found they had no USB connection points. I had to sit in the car with the engine running to get some charge into the phone. Good thing I had lots of petrol. After getting some charge into the phone I decided to try again. Firing up Google maps I set off and found that the walk setting on Google maps is puppy plop. I wandered about for nearly an hour and achieved nothing except for coming to the realisation that Bath is one weird place.

All the buildings are made of the same material - a sort of cream - coloured sandstone. I mean all as in every building actually looks the same. It's like wandering around inside a straw-coloured globe. Added to this there are no real street signs. Now plug in the absence of any consideration of tourists. I tried to buy a map, thinking I could navigate by the old-school method. There are no curio shops or even a news agents. They simply do not exist in Bath.

Fortunately, I managed to contact my friends whose train was somehow lost and they had not even made it to the Bath station. That was good really, for I had no idea where the station was and no map with which to find it. Magic.

Finally I got a message from the travellers saying they were going to their guest house and I should meet them there. I was like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.

Summing up: I was effectively lost, tired, bewildered and without any means of either finding my friends or returning to my hotel.

At this point, Bath had lost what little appeal it may have ever had. I was in the last chance saloon. I managed to Google taxis in Bath. I managed to get them to answer the phone - eventually. Now I had to explain where I was, without any reference to landmarks or a street sign. (did I mention that Bath does not do street signs or any discernable help to tourists at all?)

Thought I did.

11The best I could do is say that I was on a sort of main drag just outside the entrance to some sort of park. I answered the questions the dispatcher asked and waited with a hopeful look of gormless optimism radiating from my red, embarrassed face. And I waited. And waited. Nothing happened. I called again. I was told my taxi was there. It clearly wasn't. Dispatcher had another idea where I was. I waited and waited and waited. Some time later what looked like might be a taxi came down the road, so I flagged it down. It was a taxi, but not mine! I waited some more, rang the dispatcher again, and waited. (have I mentioned that the O2 mobile signal in Bath is pants?) By, what I can only construe as a miracle, a taxi arrived. The driver looked as perplexed as I. He explained that in the summer when the university was on vacation the availability of taxis was very poor. (shit, buddy you're telling me!) I resisted the temptation to ask about the absence of street signs and the plight of the unsuspecting tourist who may be visiting your fair community.

To further improve my chances of not repeating the fruitless efforts to navigate the maze which passes for Bath: I watched carefully as the taxi wove its way to my destination, hoping this may benefit me in the near future. It did serve to reinforce my mantra that Bath is weird and I was well and truly lost.

We went for a nice meal in the evening and to my great relief we were so close to my hotel that I was confident enough to send the others off in a taxi and walk back to the hotel.

Over the next few days I gradually got the hang of Bath. Bath has no cathedral, but since there is a Bishop of Bath and Wells there is Bath Abbey - which serves the same purpose. It's almost central and easy to find. And you can spit and hit the Roman baths from the west door. A five minute walk will cross the Pulteney bridge, and another hundred yards, turn left on Henrietta Street and on the right is the Redcar Hotel.

As long as I didn't stray too far from these obvious landmarks, I was fine. We did the obligatory sightseeing bus trip, and I distinctly remember thinking this looks familiar, I must have been lost around here - somewhere. We also did the Skyline sightseeing tour and from that perspective a far greater understanding of the geographical features of Bath was gained.

On reflection I realised that after my first excursion and return to charge my phone, I should have found the post code for my friend's guest-house and driven there and waited for them to show up. That would have been a far more sensible plan. Too bad I wasn't smart enough to see that at the time. As I recall my thought process I think I was put off by the fact that the train carrying friends was late. Would that I had simply asked at the desk for directions to the station perhaps I might have saved my poor feet and learned some humility at the same time. I did not.

(aside : I have learned that Google docs does not like the subjunctive mood, it constantly underlies it as an error. Numpties! )

We had a very pleasant meal and next morning I met the others just outside the Roman baths. They queued to get in, but I had to hit the road. I checked out and retraced my route back to Norfolk. 

Good thing it is Normal for Norfolk!




Saturday, May 02, 2020

A Bottle of Raffia-Covered Chianti and the Stars and Bars


Very Young - Very Foolish

Odd how time and distance can play tricks with both recollection and total recall. I was sure I’d written about one of the defining moments of my late teens – but now I find that I have not. Or at least if I have, I can’t find it.

Part of the problem with trying to remedy a poor memory and/or poor organisational skills is that time is a poor mnemonic. I’m winding the clock back to the late-sixties. And, I’m trying to get specific about time and place. Not very successfully, with either in truth.

Let’s work backwards from what I’m sure I know. Well, pretty sure anyhow. I was working at 70-Hi Drive-In on Noland Road and 39th Street in Independence, Missouri. Of that, I’m positive. Larry Stoner was my Bun-Boy. (lest the alliterative connotations become too complex, let me explain. In order to produce good quality burgers, the buns needed to be placed on the warm grill for a short time. This was the Bun-Boy’s job. The cooked burgers were then placed in the warmed buns and wrapped in grease-proof paper by the Bun-Boy ready for dispatch – simples).

Reece Isbell had a big old Oldsmobile. Any way you slice it: it was big. Somebody, and it was usually Bun-Boy who had these ideas, decided we should go to New Orleans. Precisely why, as I recall, was never actually explained. I believe it had something to do with the ubiquitous Spring Break. So, to New Orleans we went.

The year is 1965. We were young and particularly foolish: we had no real idea of the time and distance involved. Don’t forget this is well before the advent of the interstate road network. Somehow we came to the improbable realization that all we had to do was go south on US 71 and keep going.

At that time, US 71 ran right through Kansas City, but it conveniently split north of the Missouri river to form Highway 71 By-pass - now Missouri Highway 291, which runs from north of Liberty, Mo. to south of Harrisonville Mo.

The southern terminus of US 71 is in Louisiana, between Port Barre and Krotz Springs, Louisiana, at an intersection with U.S. 190, so I discovered on Google.The highway follows a northwesterly course through Louisiana, passing through the communities of Alexandria, Montgomery, Coushatta, and Shreveport. From its southern terminus to Shreveport, US 71 has largely been superseded by Interstate 49 - which is eventually planned to roughly follow the US 71 alignment as far north as Kansas City, Missouri. After Shreveport, US 71 follows a northerly course, crossing into Arkansas just north of Ida, Louisiana.

Bottom line, in any era - it’s a long way to New Orleans and without modern roads it takes a long time. Even today, with the interstate network fully operational it is about a 13 hour drive. My research tells me we did it in 15 hours and that must have been some kind of record for the time!
My researchers are trying to confirm the dates. I’m pretty sure it was spring break 1965. So, whilst it was common practice for college students to head to Florida for Spring Break we, being just as poor as we were stupid, decided New Orleans would do just as well. The plan was to share the driving in shifts. It must have been the Memorial Day weekend as Reece wasn’t working. I think we left about 4 or 5 in the afternoon. I do remember taking a shift at driving whilst it was still a bit light. I do remember falling asleep on the back seat. Those old Oldsmobiles were very roomy!
During my next driving stint we were deep in the Ozarks. The road was narrow with many bends, and some of them were quite sharp. It must have been dark by then.
I distinctly remember closing my eyes for just a few seconds, opening them, closing them for another few seconds, realising that nothing terrible had happened, closing them for a bit longer and finally jolting awake as the car lurched into the gravel at the side of the road. The other two woke up immediately. I was banned from driving.

We went on into Louisiana. I had lost my sense of time and place. We were hungry. I spied a McDonalds. We stopped - at least at McD you always know what you are getting. I can remember standing at the counter and the mouth of the girl on the other side moving and a sound being produced. It did not ring any bells. I can distinctly remember thinking, “Why can I not understand this person, after all we are still in America,” Fact was, we were not - we were in deep south Louisiana, where English is barely spoken.

I had this confirmed some years later when I was invited by Uncle Sam to avail myself of the opportunity to serve my country and see the world - via Ft Polk, Louisiana. We had a large number of local boys in our basic training company. Their acquaintance with the English language was only passing. They were super-fluent in Cajun French with last names like LeRoux, Fontenot, Benoit and Broussard and I was immediately reminded of the girl in McDonalds.

Eager to see the sights we drove though Lake Charles - which Google conveniently tells us:
Distance from Lake Charles to New Orleans: There are 189.03 miles from Lake Charles to New Orleans in east direction and 205 miles (329.92 kilometers) by car, following the I-10 and US-90 E route. Lake Charles and New Orleans are 3 hours 19 mins far apart, if you drive non-stop . From this I conclude it was about noon when we went through Lake Charles and maybe three in the afternoon when we hit Canal Street. We had no money for a motel room, so we took turns changing out of the grubby clothes we had on into what we assumed would wow the local girls into immediate submission. We found Bourbon Street and saw the sights. We cruised Canal Street for some hours. We mooched around Bourbon Street whilst it got progressively darker and rowdier. We had a great time. We had no luck -girl-wise - no change there then.

Let me readily confess that I like New Orleans. Despite the fact that they don’t really speak English the natives are unerringly friendly and approachable. Had they known that we were effectively broke and exceedingly impoverished free-loaders, perhaps things might have been different. But we must have been lucky as we had a great time just wandering around.

My recollection is that eventually we got so tired that we had to get a room. We found the cheapest motel ever in St Charles and grabbed some much needed shut-eye. Knowing that what goes up, must come down (or perhaps what drives to New Orleans must drive back to Independence might be more accurate) we had another quick look around and bought some souvenirs to show the folks back home. Larry Dean had his heart set on a Forget Hell license plate. This has a caricature of a Confederate Veteran holding a banner which says “Forget Hell” . I insisted that we buy a cheap raffia covered bottle of Chainit to drink on the way back. He has not now and will not ever forgive me for being so selfish. (It was my money!)

I reckon we left in the afternoon with Reece and Larry doing the driving and me curled up on the back seat. A fact of which they are overly-fond of reminding me. Getting to New Orleans was hard. Getting back was harder still and far more tedious.

During the first part of the long road home I had spent a few exhausting hours trying to remove the cork from the Chianti bottle and having to listen to Stoner bitch about not having his Forget Hell license plate. I never did get the cork out completely, but I did manage to cut into it with a pen-knife and poke most of the cork down into the bottle. Therefore if you had a swig you mostly got a mouth-full of cork bits with a smidgen of Chianti to boot. Tasted like it came from a tourist trap - which, of course, it did.

At some point in the wee hours, the boys got so exhausted that they had to pull over. My offer to take a spell at the wheel was rudely dismissed, so I got the Stars and Bars, climbed out on the lid of the Oldsmobile trunk (very copious indeed) and went to sleep. The boys were cutting Z’s in the car. 

I was awoken by the sound of cars arriving and strange voices. We were parked in a kind of public picnic area somewhere deep in the Arkansas Ozarks. I half woke up, looked at the Deliverance-types who had pulled in, wrapped the flag more tightly around me (thinking that deep in Arkansas even the baddest of the bad would not harm a kid wrapped in the holy flag). And, I was right. The other two chickens were in the car soiling their underpants.

We made it back - I have no sensible estimate of how long it took.

The flag eventually ended up in Pa Hall’s basement where it hung for many years and oversaw many a party and drinking session - with the odd game of pool thrown in for fun.

And the rest, as they say, is legend.

I'm just waiting for those other two to tell me I got this all wrong and set the record straight!