The American Dream?

America Edging Closer to Civil War?

Clearing out my desk and having a general tidy-up, I uncovered an article by Niall Ferguson from last October. (You seriously mean you have not tidied your desk since last October?) Before anyone puts me in the Pigpen stockade, I must point out that I have done some tidying – just not enough to get to the bottom of the pile. (aside) I remember when I was a hard-working teacher, the Head sometimes would come into my room – take one look at my desk (piled high with exercise books, bits of paper and the detritus of a hard day at the chalk-face) and comment on the untidy look of my desk. At such times he would, unwisely in my view, comment that in his office his desk was always immaculate. I simply could not avoid pointing out that the nature of his desk simply showed that he did not have enough work to do. I managed to do so with such good humour as to avoid being trash-canned.

I digress.

Niall was arguing that there is a kind of cultural war being fought on social media. He goes on, “Of course the culture war is no more of real war that the trade war with China.” He goes on to relate that in the news at that time was the fact that pipe-bombs had been sent to some of the President’s most vocal critics.. Clinton, Obama, Soros and DeNiro to name but a few. A Florida man, Cesar Sayoc, 56, was arrested. His van was covered with pro-Trump bumper stickers including one reading “CNN sucks”. “Trump owns this” declared a normally sober Washington correspondent. Ferguson did not agree - pointing out that a direct causal relationship between the two acts is just silly.

That people on both sides of the political divide use hyperbole and inflammatory language is not at issue. The do – on both sides of the Atlantic. And, social media simply amplifies the opportunities to do so. Both alt-right extremists and left wing nutters are more than capable of inflaming any otherwise inconsequential situation. But, leading to a civil war?

Ferguson contends that scaremongers who fantasise that all left-leaning Americans may emigrate to Canada (far too cold!) and right-wing gun nuts may secede from the Union rather than submit to even modest Second Amendment reform are over-stating the case.

He reflects: the historian Victor Davis Hanson has warned that we are “at the brink of a veritable civil war” and, therefore, we all need to pay attention. His comments are designed to warn reasonable voters of the dangers of extremism.

His historical analysis quoting the 1850’s (When congressmen routinely entered the House and Senate armed with pistols and swords and “The Caning of Charles Sumner, or the Brooks–Sumner Affair, occurred on May 22, 1856, in the United States Senate, when Representative Preston Brooks, a pro-slavery Democrat from South Carolina used a walking cane to attack Senator Charles Sumner, an abolitionist Republican from Massachusetts, in retaliation for a speech given by Sumner two days earlier in which he fiercely criticized slaveholders, including a relative of Brooks. The beating nearly killed Sumner and it drew a sharply polarized response from the American public on the subject of the expansion of slavery in the United States. It has been considered symbolic of the "Breakdown of reasoned discourse" that eventually led to the American Civil War.”) - Wikipedia

Niall goes on: “the most troubling analogy I heard last week was between the 2020 Presidential election and that of 1860. Lincoln was in a four-way race in 1860. If a center-ish, say Ohio Governor Katich runs on a third-party ticket and the Democrats nominate a progressive (say) Sanders or Harris and if Trump seeks re-election (almost a certainty) we could have a somewhat similar situation.

The parallels are not comforting. The 1860 election simply confirmed that there was no way to reconcile the two polar opposites. The issue of slavery had made them irreconcilable. Lincoln’s election simply brought the situation to it’s logical end.

You may argue that there is no single issue like slavery to unite behind in today’s culture war. But, the person who drew Niall’s attention to this was none other than Steve Bannon.

Nuff, said?

Football - A Nonsense

It’s a Funny Old Game

Grabbed an article from the Sunday Time (the seat of all knowledge) about football, or soccer, or association football whichever you prefer.

It’s been lying around on my desk for so long I’ve lost track of the date, but on the reverse side is a report of the Leeds Utd v Sheffield Wednesday match won by Leeds 1-0 – which, BTW is the most common score in any football match (the final tally was most often 1-0, proof,that soccer was as low-scoring as suspected. This result has occurred in more than 30,000 games — 16 percent of the total. Other common scores: 2-1 (about 27,000 games), 2-0 (about 22,000) and 1-1 (about 22,000). All highly interesting for stattoes but significant?

Back to the article: it begins with an injunction for anyone who wants to bet on Man Utd to beat Barcelona to progress to the s/f of the Champions League – on paper a fairly unlikely outcome (they lost 4-0 on aggregate).

The best odds from the bookies were 13/2. The true odds surely must be at least 10-0. After all, as the article says, Barcelona were a much better team, Man Utd have never beaten Barcelona in the Nou Camp and Manchester had lost 4 of their last five games. So, the bookies were right but the odds were a nonsense!

The reason football is so popular, so our author says, is down to two things, One: the system of reward in the game and two the influence of luck, good fortune or downright daft things happening.

The article insists that because the goals are so scarce when one does come along it rewards the fan for his patience. “It’s not like basketball, where they score every few numbing seconds or cricket where you wait five days to celebrate your draw.”

Correct. But the author has drawn all the wrong conclusions!

What he sees as defects in the aforementioned games are really their strengths.

He goes on: “the remarkable thing about football is that winning, statistically, takes about 50% ability and 50% luck – and you do not as mast managers insist on saying make your own luck. It just happens evenly distributed across all football teams.”

Chris Anderson and David Sally, in their book The Numbers Game – Why Everything You Know About Football is Wrong, collated stats that show that in a league game a poor side (no explanation of how to judge a poor side) will win 46% of the time against a much better team (again objective criteria missing). It is very different in rugby, basketball, baseball and American football. In those sports the better side has up to an 80% likelihood of winning. The longest odds for the favourite are always in football.

So. our author contends: the important reason why the game is so compelling. . . predictability goes out of the window. .. . we cannot be absolutely sure that our own team will get thumped when they play the league leaders, the way we could be sure if were supporting a basketball team.

This is just silly – even the league champions in basketball lose plenty of games.

The peroration: the authorities want the element of chance minimised so that the outcome of a game might genuinely be a reflection of brilliance versus mediocrity (and this is somehow a bad thing?) And we do this via the introduction of VAR, so that we can be sure that accident and chance are minimised. What if the thing the authorities are trying to get rid of is the main reason we all keep watching?

The entire premise of this article is just wrong. Even in the sports he mentions there is a large amount of chance.

I give as an example: The KC Chiefs having been outplayed for the whole of the first quarter v the New England Patriots dragged themselves back into the play-off game to draw even after normal time. Predictably they lost the toss and lost the overtime game. At the end of regulation time they would have won had not one of their players lined up in an off-side position. KC fans were, of course, disappointed and despondent, but able to accept the defeat as the loss was the fault of the Chiefs players and not some chance occurrence.

Contrast this with a match I remember well: European Cup Final 1975 - Bayern Munich went into the match as favourites, because they were the reigning champions. Watched by a crowd of 48,374, Leeds had the best of the opening exchanges of the match and had two appeals for a penalty kick turned down by the referee Michel Kitabdjian. Bayern suffered two injuries in the first half to defender Björn Andersson and striker Uli Hoeneß, following strong tackles by Leeds players. A Peter Lorimer goal for Leeds in the 62nd minute was disallowed, when Billy Bremner was adjudged to be offside. Franz Roth scored in the 71st minute for Bayern and Gerd Müller extended the lead ten minutes later, to secure a 2–0 victory for Bayern.

It was Bayern's second consecutive victory in the competition, although they failed to retain their Bundesliga title, finishing in 10th place. Riots by the Leeds fans during the match led to UEFA banning the club from European competition for four years, although this was reduced to two years on appeal.

The riot was the direct result of the Leeds fans sense of injustice. Their team had out-played the opposition. The very thing that the article praises directly caused the riot. Notwithstanding that many football fans – particularly in the 70’s and 80’s were then and may remain first class morons – the sense of the basic unfairness of the game was the major factor in the riot. Basketball, rugby and NFL fans do not riot – chiefly because they know the rules of the game are designed so that the best team wins most of the time. Upsets do happen and everyone loves an underdog but the burning sense of injustice is avoided when your team is beaten fair and square by the better team.

The odd thing is that football is moving towards the 21^st century – albeit very slowly. Those seemingly more hide-bound games like cricket and rugby have adopted technology as a way to make the game fairer.

Football is way behind and were it not for the seemingly endless propensity for the fans to tolerate any manner of nonsense it would have been dragged screaming and kicking into the modern era.

More idiots like our author do not help.

Brexit - Smexit

A truly great Brexit

I read a great article the other day explaining why Brexit is just around the corner.

Unfortunately it was all complete nonsense. Then a very nice chap appeared on the news explaining how he was campaigning to protect EU citizens rights followed by another bright spark telling us that a lot of EU citizens could not vote in the recent elections because the UK government had not bothered to organise it properly.

Great confidence has been engendered.

It's sometimes hard not to scream at the TV.

I could not understand why the chap who was so concerned about EU citizens rights was not foaming at the mouth and railing at the government, the opposition, the European court of human rights, uncle Tom cobley and all and sundry other numpties.

He should find out who set the parameters for voting in the European referendum. What an odd election that was.  As well as I can remember the franchise included the people of Gibraltar, any Irish citizens who cared to turn out and citizens of the UK. Excluded were a large number of EU citizens normally resident in the UK and citizens of other countries who are normally resident, pay tax and national insurance, and receive benefits.

Having found out, he should be button-holing them instead of hobnobbing with the BBC.  

There was neither any sense of fair play or good sense in deciding the qualification to vote in the EU referendum. So, who did decide?

Google it!

I did - and it turns out it was none other than spreadsheet Phil.

What it doesn't tell us is why the franchise was so restricted.  

Surely, anyone who fulfills the above criteria should have had a vote.  Otherwise it is just ridiculous to keep mouthing duck--like the platitudes about the 17.4 million who voted to leave. Only if the vote is fair, honest and decided by the majority of people resident in the UK is it a real referendum.  

It was not.  

So, now we are chuntering along with no chance to leave on any terms except those negotiated by Theresa May.  No matter how the bakers dozen of leadership candidates tries to spin it - it is, as she often said, the only deal on offer.

What’s left to do?  Only a general election is likely to allow any progress.  But, the Tories are scared to death of the voters. And, with good cause after they were slaughtered by the Brexit Party in the Euro elections.

With no prospect of an election we stagger on to Halloween.  Woe, Woe and Woe again.

Car Parks

Damn the Chelsea Tractors - full speed ahead!

In the news: Pensioner backed into wife while trying to get out of parking space.

Sounds funny, but it’s not. Poor old chap had to get in the car from the passenger side because there was not enough room to open the driver’s door. 

Accident ensued when he inadvertently started the car whilst it was in reverse – narrowly missed his wife and crashed into a parked car behind him. Ho! Ho!

Except it’s not quite that simple.

Readers everywhere in the UK are now remembering similar situations.

Why?

The main reason is because supermarkets, among others, try to cram in as many spaces as possible. In general there is not enough space allowed between cars. Now, add the Chelsea Tractors into the mix and you have a perfect storm of inadequate car parking space leading to car-park rage, dinged wings, smashed mirrors, unreported accidents and possible death my misadventure – or negligence.

I see this everyday when I go to Roys of Wroxham. Take two 4x4’s park them with an empty bay between them, stand back and watch the mayhem develop. No-one can open their door in this scenario. Tempers flare. Strange manoeuvrers ensue. Contortionists limber up.

Oddly, most of the opprobrium is usually heaped on people who park in disabled spaces illegally – or in the Parent and Child bays without a child in sight.

The real culprits are the planners who allow such a squeeze by the owners/operators and the lack of planning by the supermarkets. They do their customers no favours by cramming in extra spaces which cannot be used.

Solutions: special slots for Chelsea tractors, light vans and other wide vehicles; simply make the bays larger, even if this means you have less parking slots.

Put the customer first.

Dragging Clouds

Science or Pseudo-Science

I’m not very good at maths. This is odd for I have off-spring who have degrees in Mathematics and Physics. Some part of the genome has passed me by. My old man was quite good at arithmetic. He could add up someone’s milk bill on the fly and get the answer – always erring on the side of the larger amount, I believe.

I only preface this piece in order that no-one says, “This is dead easy, you fool!” (They may say that anyway)

So we have gravity. I understand the Newtonian theory of gravity (the one with the apple). Gravity is directly proportional to the mass of two objects and inversely proportional to the distance between them. Seems fairly straight-forward. Some odd bits arise. When you jump in the air you are attracted to the earth and soon find yourself back where you started. What people find harder to compute is that the earth is also attracted to you – but because the earth is so much more massive than a person, the earth still comes up to meet you - it is just too small to measure.

To be clear, what we observe is the effect of gravity not gravity itself. “In theories of quantum gravity, the graviton is the hypothetical quantum of gravity, an elementary particle that mediates the force of gravity. There is no complete quantum field theory of gravitons due to an outstanding mathematical problem with re-normalization in general relativity.” Clear? I thought so!

What science is saying is that we can observe the effects of gravity but we do not really understand how it works. Some science – oh yea!

So, what has this got to do with dragging clouds?

Matter is in three states. Solid (like the Earth), liquid (like the ocean) and gas (like the atmosphere).

So when the solid earth spins on its axis (as it does once in 24 hours) do the ocean and atmosphere follow at the same rate? Common sense and a little bit of science would suggest that the water moves along at a slower rate and the atmosphere at a much slower rate. Imagine it as the solid earth moving and dragging the oceans and air along with it. (Gravity!)

Now what I want to know is: if my theory is correct, what effect does it have on the weather?

When we look at the weather map we see area of high and low pressure. The uneven heating of the earth causes the air to rise (low pressure) in places and fall (high pressure) in other places. This is the main cause of the wind and our ever-changing weather.

But, take the example of a high pressure area centred over the British Isles. In winter this gives us dry and frosty conditions. - in summer dry and warm.

However, the weather map only concerns itself with the pressure. No account is given to the rotation of the earth under the various areas of high or low pressure. Perhaps changes in pressure cancel out the rotational factors or perhaps the rotational factors are so small as to be not very important.

Does the rotation of the earth affect the changes in the weather?

Could someone please explain?

Trump Golf

Commander in Cheat

How Golf explains Trump

Rick Reilly has written this most entertaining book. It’s obstensively about golf. It’s really about politics and Donald Trump.

His thesis is clear: if you cheat at golf you are just a cheat. And the President is a monumental cheater on the golf course.

Most golfers realise that if you take the odd Mulligan along the way it’s not a criminal offence and even your playing partners will not get too upset. All recreational golfers have played with people who simply cannot count their own strokes for toffee. Are they “cheating”? Probably not, they just can’t remember or have a brain-fade. In a competition at your local club these members are well-known and soon find it difficult to find anyone to play with. Problem solved.

Donald Trump is something altogether different.

Rick tell us that at Winged Foot, where Trump is a member, the caddies saw him kick the ball back onto the fairway so often that they took to calling him Pele (the aristocratic Brazilian soccer star).

Trump always tees-off first. (The etiquette is that a coin toss decides the tee order at the first hole and thereafter the winner of the previous hole gains the “honour” at the next hole). If Trump hooks it, he just puts down another ball and counts that as one. He then hops into his cart, tuned to be twice as fast as all the other carts on the course, so he can get off down the fairway and be first to his ball.

Balls hit into the woods or a bunker or in the water appear miraculously on the green (Caddies and Secret Service agents frequently collude to ensure his ball is in the right place).

One player (nameless in this article) even claims he saw Trump play in “invisible” shot. I saw him make a chipping motion from the side of a hill but no ball came up. Then he walked up the hill, stuck his hand in the hole and pulled the ball out. There must have been a ball in his hand the whole time . . . I mean who does that?

Then there is the “Trump Bump” He may shoot a sketchy 77 at noon. On the ride home his score will be a 75, by dinner 72.

According to Trump he has won 18 club championships. This is like an NFL QB winning 18 Super Bowls. On the official rating site where ethics dictates that you post all your scores, Trump has posted just 20 times in 7 years. The result is an astonishing 2.8 handicap. Jack Nicklaus is currently a 3.4.

Trump breaks the cardinal rules of golf. He drives his super-charged cart on to the greens. He doesn’t take off his cap at the end of the round.

The truth is the person in golf Donald Trump cheats the most is himself.

Does any – or all of this matter?

Don’t forget we have had some fairly dodgy individuals inhabit the White House. Forgetting Tricky Dick, Kennedy was a sex-pest and addict, Eisenhower and Roosevelt probably had mistresses. Harding used to hide in a broom cupboard to carry on illicit sex. The list is long and not very edifying.

If Trump chats at golf but is doing a good job, will anyone really care?

We’ll see.

Chiefs EoS Report 2019-20

So Near, Yet So Far Away

Where to start?

Let’s start with the “experts”. I often look in on the VLOG of Colin Cowherd mainly because he offers analysis and not just “facts” - you know facts they are the things that The Donald calls “fake news”.

Fact One: Tom Brady has been sacked nil times in the last 90 snaps. He has been pressured 3 times. This is against the Chargers, Joey Bosa and Co, and the Chiefs, Dee Ford “Mr The Sack Leader”. Watching the Conference Championship game this was more than apparent.

Fact Two: The Chiefs never got close to even moving Brady off the spot. He just had a look and threw the ball away if required. That’s the three pressures accounted for.

Fact Three: In order to win play-off games you can’t be awful at anything – so says Colin. Agree. His analysis: the Chiefs are bad, no worse than that, historically bad on the defensive side of the ball. The Pats had 500 yards of offence. They had 31 first downs. I screamed every time we had them in third and long and could not either stop the run nor defend a pass. End of story.

Analysis of the season must start with the end of the season. The Chiefs won the AFC West and won a play-off game, albeit against a very poor Indianapolis team. Why. Simples, Patrick Mahomes. I was predicting the Chiefs to lose against the Pats. Why? I knew they had no defence and defence wins Championships and Super Bowls. (No wonder the Pats are the early favourites to win in Atlanta – they have a defence – not great one but good enough to stop the Chiefs scoring in the first half.) But, Partick Mahomes (if he stays healthy and injury-free) sets up the team to win next season and for many seasons to come. Can Brady go on forever? No, and when he leaves Mahomes is the next cab on the rank to win and win big and win often.

Back to this season.

The offence

Apart from Mahomes the tribe really missed Kareem Hunt. The back-up is Chad Henne and since he now knows the system there would be no profit in changing (Being a permanent back-up has some advantages – the pay is good and you don’t risk injury) I suspect the Chiefs may draft a QB low down – say Round 5,6 – as a project -after all Tom Brady was a sixth round pick!)

Now, it is not my call to pronounce on Hunt’s well-documented behaviour. However, his “replacement” Damian Williams, is a good serviceable back – but not a three down back. Only Kareem was able to do that and catch passes and make the defence account for him always, and block effectively picking up blitzes. Controversially, I might sign Hunt again. He must serve his time and rehabilitate. Brave, but could be done if the Chiefs are willing to take the flak. And, he would be cheap, very cheap cap-wise.

Spencer Ware has out-lived his usefulness along with Charcandrick West -they go.

The O-line has performed admirably this season. Mahomes has rarely been sacked or pressured (always excepting the Pats game) and the run blocking has been good. What, at the beginning of the season was seen as a possible liability has proven to be a real asset. (One dark note: I can’t understand why the Chiefs activated Laurent Duvernay-Tardif only for him to be declared inactive for the Championship game – coaches surely missed that one!)

On the wide-out front Kelvin Benjamin must be signed to a deal. (I believe he is on a one-year contract – once again he was inactive for the most important game, but he must have a future at Arrowhead. He’s a real, proven, big-bodied receiver who will complement Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill and one other (not Chris Conley whose time is surely up) Marcus Kemp gets a few snaps, so does Gehrig Dieter. Both are regular special term contributors, but never a third guy in the progression. Demarcus Robinson is not good enough. He goes.

Kelce is the tight end bar injury but a real receiving back-up would be good (DRAFT?)

Antony Sherman is the FB. Great on special teams. He stays. Darrell Williams is a running back. Not needed.

That’s about it for the offence. Not a lot do do there.

Let’s cut to the real problems.

The Defence

The D-line is not good enough (Whoa, Mal we have Chris Jones! Yes, but he is almost alone in being able to pressurise the opposing QB. There is no push in the middle – well-documented against the Pat and the present personnel cannot stop the run. Must be fixed! It will be interesting to see how the Rams fare against the Patriots – they do have personnel that can pressure up the middle.

The LB corps is poorer than weak. We have no inside line-backers capable of stopping the run and helping out in coverage. This may be the one area that absolutely should be an off-season priority!

In the secondary, and very controversially, Eric Berry must go. Again, we have been waiting all season for him to turn up. Then he does and plays very poorly. (I saw him in position to make a play on the ball if only he had turned around during the winning drive.) Clearly he is not healthy enough to justify the mega-mega contract as the Chiefs have given him. With Mahomes taking up a lot of Cap he has to go. The rest of the crew are mostly a project in process. Except for Orlando Scandrick – he’s 31 and not very good. He must be cut.

Chris Cooper:Experience: R: Height: 5-10: Age: 24:Weight: 202 lbs: College: Stony Brook (sorry not sure why he is taking up a roster spot)

Josh Crockett:Experience: R:Height: 6-4: Age: 23 :Weight: 195 lbs:College: Central Oklahoma (sorry, who is this guy? Have I missed something?)

Raymond Davison: Linebacker (on roster, never seen)

Gehrig Dieter:Wide Receiver: Experience: 1 year: Height: 6-2: Age: 25:Weight: 208 lbs

College: Alabama (gets some playing time, so the coaches must like him – special teams only?)

Step Durham:Defensive Back: Experience: R: Height: 5-11: Age: 23:Weight: 194 lbs

College: Georgia Tech (a rambling wreck?)

Dillon Gordon:Offensive Lineman:Experience: 2 years:Height: 6-4:Age: 25: Weight: 322 lbs

College: LSU (a project, a serviceable back-up?)

Justin Hamilton:Defensive Lineman:Experience: 2 years:Height: 6-2:Age: 25:Weight: 315 lbs

College: Louisiana-Lafayette (ditto the above)

Ryan Hunter:Offensive Lineman:Experience: R:Height: 6-5:Age: 23:Weight: 322 lbs:

College: Bowling Green (yet another unknown)

Joey Ivie:Defensive Lineman:Experience: 1 year:Height: 6-3:Age: 24:Weight: 295 lbs

College: Florida (it really is surprising, another unknown)

Tanoh Kpassagnon: Linebacker:Experience: 2 years:Height: 6-7:Age: 24:Weight: 289 lbs

College: Villanova (an enigma wrapped up in a mystery. The Chiefs have been working on him now for two years with no real results. Get on the field occasionally. Time to move on? Answer to the LB problems? Your guess is as good as mine? Could he play inside with his height, reach and weight?

They love Frank Zombo on special teams and as a back-up. Move on, he’s too old.

The above players are on the roster according to the Chiefs web site. I doubt it’s accuracy.

A nice selection of projects or also-rans from the roster. We also have Armani Watts to return - out injured all season. And Dorian O’Daniel a linebacker who the Chiefs are high-on – also injured for the Pats game.

And the big question – can we survive with the present Defensive Co-ordinator, Bob Sutton. Probably not.

Post writing news: The Kansas City Chiefs have relieved Bob Sutton of his defensive coordinator duties, according to the team’s official Twitter account.

Andy Reid is a offensive genius, but he requires the same from a defensive co-ordinator. Let’s be clear, the team’s woes are not Sutton’s fault. He can only work with the players he has. Both Reid and the front office just haven’t given him the tools. He should go and the Chiefs should already have his replacement lined up. End of.

Special Teams

Dustin Colquitt (punter and holder) A great servant of the club. Is it time to get a new punter? He should face real competition next season. Harrison Butker. May be the find of the season. Rarely misses. Should be a fixture for many years to come (BTW I was surprised that both kickers did not distinguish themselves in the NE game. Butt-kicker’s kick-offs were not as long as usual and Colquitt missed a few chances to pin them back. (We’ll ignore the potential game-changing muff by Julian Edelman) Tremon Smith has done well returning kick s and I can see why you don’t want to expose Tyreek Hill very often to the big-hits, so I have no problem with him remaining. He appears nowhere else on the depth chart? Odd?

Coaches

Andy Reid: sad that he can’t find a way to beat Belichick – but still there is no real pressure on him. Eric Bieniemy : Offensive Coordinator – now apparently in great demand and may be the next Head Coach to have trained under Reid – following in the footsteps of Matt Nagy at the Bears and Mike Vrabel at the Titans Good luck to him if he goes. Here’s an interesting fact: the Chiefs employ 26 coaches – that’s about one for every two players on the active roster. I didn’t know that!

Conclusion

Now that the dust has settled, fans can be well-pleased with how the Chiefs have preformed (remember many pundits had them at 9 and 7 for this season). Next year is the fiftieth anniversary of the Super Bowl win against the Vikings. Baring unforeseen disasters I expect the Tribe to win the big one next February.

That’s all folks.

Dad's Army Does Brexit

A very Private Frazer Brexit

Yes, folks, “we’re doomed, we’re doomed, we’re doomed” - famous catch phrase of John Laurie – know affectionately as Private James Frazer in that classic British Sitcom, Dad’s Army is now coming to pass.

If only he had not been quite so prophetic or prescient.

We now approach the real crunch. Latest predictions are Teresa will lose the Commons vote and lose spectacularly. Where do we go from there? Probably down the pan – and we are talking toilet here. Why? Mostly because the Tory Party has been at war with themselves over the EU for a very long time and many politicians have no other reason to exist than to carry on the crusade and get out of the EU. That’s just what they do.

Problem is: having achieved that they are now incapable of voting for any plan except the one they believe in. (And that includes both sides of the argument – for all sides are equally to blame for this mess – lest we leave anyone out don’t forget the Labour Party -led by Jeremy Corbin who does not and never has thought that the EU was/is a good idea – or the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists and the Democratic Unionist Party – all bit players but to whom some of the blame must be apportioned.) Of course, if there was a consensus around one plan, any plan that would solve the problem. Is that a flying pig I spy? If so, make sure you carry an umbrella for even flying pigs must defecate occasionally.

So what is to be done? Who knows, least of all Teresa May. Everyone says she must have a back-up plan – she just must. But what if she is telling the truth – it’s her deal or no deal. Sounds like just like another one of her famous sound bites – pleasing on the ear but without any real substance. Just perhaps her back-up plan is to not have a back-up plan. This could work. When she loses big in Wednesday’s vote, she just resigns and says, OK over to you guys now – I’m doing a David Cameron, I’m out of it – good luck to all!

Sounds far-fetched, improbably, unlikely, impossible? Don’t bet on it.

That notwithstanding, are there other viable alternatives?

Everybody has an idea so I’m entitled to mine.

Let’s have a new referendum – not just a re-run of the old one.

A Royal Commission would oversee the terms and the date.

Crucially, everyone who lives in the UK and pays UK Income tax and national insurance, everyone who is entitled to free care under the National Health and everyone who lives in the EU but pays UK Income tax would be eligible to vote.

We hear a lot about how 17.4 million people voted to leave. Yes, and their votes should count. We don’t hear about the millions of people who should have been allowed to vote and were not allowed. We need to hear their opinion and we need to hear it now.

How many old people (who mostly voted to leave) are not with us any more? How many young people who were not old enough to vote now can?

It is disingenuous to maintain that the result of the referendum is set in stone. That is a denial of democracy. We vote for a new government every five years. It is silly and stupid to demand that a one-time vote must be set in stone forever. Brexit did not come down on tablets from Sinai.

The essential quality of referenda is that they are mutable. That’s what a referendum is.

Get over it.

Red Sieve or Red Peril

Chiefs Post Season Chances

What a roller coaster! Where to start? Kareem Hunt.

What a tragedy for a young professional sportsman. It was interesting to see Arrowhead Pride take down the fan comment feed shortly after it was announced that Hunt would be released (fire effectively) with immediate effect. Whilst on a human level it is right to feel compassion for Kareem, on a professional level the Chiefs organization acted swiftly and correctly. Notwithstanding the obvious, Kareem lied to his employers about an alleged assault. In most occupations this is grounds for instant dismissal. Chiefs fans who really think some other plan might have worked are seriously deluded. Mr Hunt has left the building and he’s not coming back.

What consolation there is may be gained from knowing that in the medium to long term excellent running backs are not in short supply. With Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware set to become a running back by committee with Darrell Williams the Chiefs are not short of bodies. None, however can match the skill set of Hunt. Fans should just consider that he had a season-ending injury and move on. That’s the only choice.

Next: The Chiefs sighed Kelvin Benjamin today to bolster their receiving corps. It’s a one year deal. Not a problem. Benjamin gives them cover in a skill position. How much he plays is another question. He’s a good player. It’s a good move.

Negative: Eric Berry; Chiefs’ Thursday injury report vs. Ravens: Eric Berry limited again, could be on snap count if active Sunday. No-one can really figure out what the Berry situation is! He’s been on the roster all year and has not played a down. Common sense would tell you that the Chiefs believe he will be able to play sometime this season or they would have put him on injured reserve by now. Then again – if he does play can he really “fix” what is the worst KC defence ever? I can’t see how.

History tell you that the best way to have a successful post-season run is to lock down home field advantage. Right now the Chiefs are the Number One seed in the AFC. Can they hold that spot? We may learn on Sunday when they entertain the Ravens. The Ravens are fighting for their lives and will prove a stern test. Beating them would go a long way towards getting the number one spot. Oh, wait a minute they also have the surging Chargers (home) and Seattle (away) to overcome. The number one spot doesn’t really look so easy now – does it? Then again – even the number two seed is good – at least you get a week off. And, even playing the Pats in the AFC Championship game in Foxboro doesn’t look all that frightening. Sum up: Barring real disaster, Chiefs make the play-offs.

How far could they go?

Not too far.

Why?

They have no defence. Even with an average defence they would have a chance. The one they have is so far behind average that it makes anyone else’s look good. The truth is the Chiefs are wholly dependent on Patrick Mahomes – who has delivered a miracle of a season so far. Should he get hurt – finito!

The Chiefs are one draft and one free-agency away from a Super Bowl. And, not just an appearance, but winning the whole tamale. Fans would do well not to get caught up in the hype, enjoy the ride as long as it lasts and look forward with optimism. Fact: defense wins Super Bowls. End of.

Update: Chiefs beat the Raiders easily to secure the number one spot in the AFL Play-offs.  The Colts beat Houston easily to set up a match at Arrowhead next Saturday.  Mal's worst nightmare

Chiefs Prospects 18

A new day dawns

By this time, with the first game only hours away, I would have normally made my pre-season prognostication, but a change is as good as a rest.

So I have waited to see the Chiefs depth chart before penning any thoughts. Maybe I’ll do better?

One thing is for sure with a new QB in place and in charge things will be different, How good or how bad? Only time will tell. Partrick Mahomes is listed as the starter with Chad Henne as back-up. Mahomes will make mistakes – all rookies do. How many and of what sort will decide the season.

What weapons does he have at his disposal?

Offence

The wide-outs are: Tyreek Hill (speed to burn who scares the pants off defenders), Demarcus Robinson (don’t like him, never did, hope I’m wrong), De’Anthony Thomas (again speed to burn), Sammy Watkins (brought in specially to be the number one target – did little in pre-season to justify the huge contract), Chris Conley (always liked him – hoping for a break-out year), and Marcus Kemp (unknown quantity). There should be enough weapons here for Mahomes to score touchdowns. Running backs: Kareem Hunt (spectacular rookie season, can he keep it up?, Spencer Ware (returning now fully fit – we’ll see), Damian Williams (unknown quantity – probably a special teamer), and Darrel Williams (ditto) Don’t forget RB’s are the QB’s best friend. If a run offence can be generated to help Mahomes – great. If not he just becomes cannon fodder. Anthony Sherman is the fullback and has been for years, Dependable and great on Special Teams.

The Offensive Line

Left tackle: Eric Fisher (are his best years ahead of him or is he just going to be average forever?),

Can Erving is his serviceable backup.

Left guard: Andrew Wylie is listed (no back-up – he better be good),

Center: Mitch Morse (ex-Missouri Tiger and a crowd favourite is the stater, backed up by Jordan Devey and Austin Reiter – both destined for some game time and lots of special teams action.

Right guard: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (crowd love him – I've never been convinced.) Ike Boettiger is the back-up (never heard of him).

Right tackle: Mitchell Swartz starts (a crowd favourite) backed up again by Cam Irving

Tight end: Travis Kelce (all-pro – hope he avoids injury his back up is Alex Ellis (unknown)

Significantly the tribe did not use either draft picks or free-agency to shore up the O-line. I hope they are right but I fear they are not. Forgetting Mahomes for a moment, these guys are the bread and butter of any team.

Defence

The real weakness of the team last season.

Left DE: Chris Jones (can he repeat his form of most of last season?, Jarvis Jenkins(special teamer?)

Nose tackle: Xavier Williams (Chiefs couldn’t stop a 10 year old last season – he better be good), Back-up Derrick Nnadi (good back up)

Right DE: Allen Bailey (part of last year’s group) backed up by Justin Hamilton (special-teamer?)

LOLB: Justin Houston (once terrorized the opposition – how much is left in the tank?) Tanoh Kpassagnon is the back up (an enigma wrapped up in a riddle – we’ll see)

LILB: Anthony Hitchens, Terence Smith and Dorian O’Daniel are listed. (they better be better than last year’s crew or the season is over before it starts)

RILB: Reggie Ragland (crowd favourite – I’m not convinced) Back-up is Ben Nieman

ROLB: Dee Ford (if he’s fit he is fantastic) His Back-up (Breeland Speaks) should get plenty of playing time.

LCB: Steven Nelson (never like him – must improve), Orlando Scandrick (must be ready to play on day one), Charvarius Ward ( I don’t trust players with names like Charvious, sorry)

RCB: Kendall Fuller (big shoes to fill). Tremon Smith (not well-known back-up)

Safety Eric Berry (the heart of the team – questionable to start game one) Eric Murray (good enough?) Ron Parker (previous reject brought back?), Armani Watts (was supposed to be good), Jordan Lucas (unlnown).

Dustin Colquitt returns to punt and Winchester is the long-snapper.

Prediction time: the pundits are all over the place. Some even see a Super Bowl season. I all goes well they win 10 games. Super well – 11 and the Division Champs. Super bad – 8-8 and no-where.

My money is on 10-6 but I have no real faith in it.

We find out a lot tonight as they take on the Charger (many folks favourites for the division in game one). Ask me after this one!

Brexs***

Brexit Scuppered?

I saw a great bumper sticker on my way back from Bath the other day. It just said Brexshit.

Because I was bored hanging abound waiting for some friends – no not bored with the friends, just bored from waiting, I decided to buy a Times to read. Got the day wrong and it was the Saturday edition, not the Sunday Times which I buy every week without fail.

Incidentally, Bath is quite interesting – in a Milton Keynes sort of way. Like the new town in Bucks, it is uniformly uniform. Where ever you are it looks essentially the same. Bath’s charm is that it is old whereas Milton Keynes is a modern invention.

I digress. In the Times was an article by Ben Machess entitled “In just three years we will have a population that voted remain”.

One recent poll suggests that 48% of voters back the idea of a referendum on the terms of the final deal.

Interesting? But an anathema to the real hard-core Brexiteers. Their mantra goes. “We have had the referendum and that’s it. We have to get on and leave.” They insist that to have another vote is a betrayal of democracy. (Sorry, can’t see the logic there.)

Two points: the 2014 referendum was actually the second one on the EU.

The United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum was a public vote that took place on 5 June 1975, on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Communities which was principally the European Economic Community (the Common Market) as it was known at the time.

Results Votes %

Yes 17,378,581 67.23%

No 8,470,073 32.77%

Valid votes 25,848,654 99.79%

Brexiteers don’t talk about this at all.

Status of referendums. ... Referendums are not legally binding, so legally the Government can ignore the results; for example, even if the result of a pre-legislative referendum were a majority of "No" for a proposed law, Parliament could pass it anyway, because parliament is sovereign.

So. if Dave Cameron had any cojones he could have just said, “Wow – what a close one – so close the government will now look at the options. No balls.

Second point: Referenda are very bad ways of organising this country – or any country for that matter. The devil is in he detail – or the question – ask the “right” question and you can get some very different answers.

Leading the campaign for another vote is Femi Oluole, the co-founder of Our Future, Our Choice . . . the law graduate from Darlington has spent this year hammering home a simple point: young people do not want Brexit but are the ones who will have to live with the consequences.

Femi tells us that he gets on-line abuse every two minutes and racial abuse every other day. One of his key arguments rests on demographics. By 2021 we will have a population that voted to remain. . . enough Brexiteers will have died and been replaced by Remain favouring young voters to make Britain more pro-EU than against.

The fact remains that young people have only themselves for the mess. 73% of registered 18 to 24 year-olds voted Remain, but their turnout was about 64%. 90% of Leave voting 65 year-olds turned out. That did it for Leave.

Who couldn’t vote?

The flip-side of “who can vote” is “who can’t vote”.

You can’t vote in the referendum if you’re under 18, even in Scotland, where people that age could vote in the independence referendum.

And you can’t vote if you’re an EU citizen living here, unless you’re from Ireland, Malta or Cyprus. Ireland has always had special treatment, and the other two countries are in the Commonwealth as well as the EU.

British citizens living abroad for more than 15 years can’t vote either. This was unsuccessfully challenged in the courts.

Non-UK nations, as above, could not vote. Hard to see how this was fair. Gerrymandering has a long and proud tradition in the UK.

Femi tells us that Dave Cameron never once tried to explain what he single market was. He says he can do it in 20 seconds. He made a video explaining the single market in terms of beer production.

On a radio talk show with Nigel Farage he forced the UKIPPER Supremo to admit that EU treaties did, in theory, allow member states to restrict immigration.

Femi is also convinced that in the end self-preservation means that a new vote will happen. The UK politicians will try to CYOA when it becomes apparent that the cost of Brexit is just going to be too high. He is convinced that a new vote can only happen after the deal is on the table. This was the problem with the 2016 vote – no details were available.

Hardly a day goes by without some new problem arising. Dominic Rabb – the new Brexit Secretary is only now publishing the governments assessments of the impact of Brexit on various sectors of the economy. They do not make pleasant reading to anyone – either Brexiteer of Re-moaner.

A good example is news today about the European sat nav system. The EU says we cannot be in it if we are not in the EU. The government says, OK we’ll do our own. Nah, nah, nah!

Cost: up to 100 million pounds.

The hits just keep on coming!

Brino or Draino

Draino is a well-known American drain cleaner known to release blockages – particularly a build-up of compacted faeces. Most appropriate in the circumstances. Brino is a kind of acronym for Brexit in name only (could this be the love that dare not speak it’s name?)

Looks as if we are, at last, approaching some kind of Brexit cabinet agreement on the eventual outcome of the decision in 2014 to leave the EU. (Screams of “about time too” are heard in the background).

Without re-running the whole Leave/Not Leave schmozzle, it’s time to take stock of where we are, how we got there and where we go next.

Two salient points which have mostly gotten lost or just been ignored recently. One – the 2014 referendum was the second UK-wide referendum on this subject. In the first, people voted substantially to remain in the EU – or whatever it was called then. That decision must also be respected. Times changed. In 2014 people voted narrowly to leave. That decision must be respected. We hear a lot of politicians using the word “respected”. Good word. What does it mean? (Answers on a post card) 

It rather depends which side of the argument you are on. Both sides say we all must respect the result, but both sides then go on to assert that they will only respect the decisions which conforms to their own ideas/prejudices. (Not an Aretha Franklin sort of respect at all?)

So, we are left with the last result stands.

Today Mrs May gathers her cabinet at Chequers for a marathon session to finally agree and put the UK position on record. (Hallelujah, cries the multitude!) That’s where we are now. Reports are that she will agree to what is termed a “soft” Brexit. Problem: many in her cabinet and in the country think this is a betrayal. She may argue that this is the best we can get and the only hope of the EU accepting her plan. She may well win the day but lose the war. (useful to remember that the 2014 referendum was a direct result of two seemingly unrelated events/situations – firstly David Cameron was scared to the point of soiling his underwear that UKIP would mean a Labour government by default unless he headed them off at the pass – he just didn’t factor in how his promise of a referendum designed to scupper UKIP would work if he won the election and had to deliver! (Wonder how Dave sleeps at night?)

We must digress slightly at this point, for at the end of the day membership of the EU is a political decision. Ted Heath, a Conservative Prime Minister, took us into Europe. Why? Having been rebuffed by DeGaulle for many years he pulled out all the stops to get us in. Heath realised that the demise of the Commonwealth (yes I know it still exists, but it is not as it was - with Britain calling all the shots and denuding India of goods, the Caribbean of people, Australia and New Zealand of sheep and Africa of raw materials.) meant that the UK would be isolated and in perpetual financial crisis. The EU was our only hope.

(You may remember that joining the EU was a decision of Parliament – no referendum was either necessary or even proposed – this is only right in so far as the UK is a Kingdom and not a republic. Sovereignty resides with the Queen in parliament – not with the people. Would that Brexiteers would remember this when the spout off about the will of the people. The will of the people is changeable. Fact.)

The ideological basis for the EU for the Tories was/and is that the EU is primarily a capitalist club. Heath and other Conservative leaders were struggling with a Labour Party led by Michael Foot and featuring Tony Benn at the time of joining and now the threat of Jeremy Corbyn and his hard-left cronies has rightly scared the Tories. The 1970's Labour Party was diametrically opposed to joining the EU.

Hence they are busy trying to get some sort of Brexit (any sort really) going to avoid a future Labour government. This is short-sighted in the extreme – even for politicians. They should know this and be brave enough to remind the voters. One Parliament cannot bind another. A Brexit deal – no matter how fudged – cannot survive if a Labour or UKIP government deems it unacceptable.

Today, we are where we are. Where we will be in the future is the vexing question.

60% of under 25’s voted to remain in the EU. About 60% of the over 60’s voted the exact opposite way. Demographically the remainers have already won the day, if not the argument.

We wait to see what the deal is and whether it will prompt the EU to ease up.

We wait to see how after Brexit the prosperity of the country (at present all guess work and ranging from the sun-lit uplands to the slough of despondency) can be maintained.

Either way it will be interesting – if not fatal.

True Brit - the Windrush Scandal

SS Windrush

I am in the club. I am numbered among the congregation.

Watching the fulminations about the West Indian generation who came to Britain in the 1950’s and subsequently found that they were not as welcome as they either thought or were promised, brings to mind some experiences of mine.

For, I have the same bit of paper one of the victims was proudly clutching on TV last evening. It resides in my passport and except for its size it is identical. It’s dated 9 June 1975. It’s almost exactly like the TV one – except it is on A5 paper, not A4 (saving money in 1975?)

I dug out my old passport. On 8 June 1974 I entered the UK having debarked from the QE II at Southampton. My passport stamp says I have leave to enter the UK for two months. On 16 July I have another stamp which says my leave to remain will expire on 8 June 1975 – I confess I do not remember how I got that stamp. Finally I have a stamp from the Home Office on 9 Jun 1975 saying that the time limit to enter the UK is hereby removed.

Am I of the Windrush generation? No. I am neither black nor West Indian. The cut-off date for Windrush migrants, as reported in the press is 1974. I’m just a “legal” immigrant.

How did all this happen?

Well, in 1974 I graduated from Central Missouri State University and wanted to begin my teaching career. At the same time my wife was pregnant with our oldest son – now over 40. We decided to return to her country of origin. So, we did. At about that time there was a furore in the press regarding wives of British men who had come to the UK to join their husbands.

Was not what’s good for the goose, good for the gander? Eventually the government agreed and therefore husbands of British women were accorded the same rights. Hence my 9 June 75 passport stamp. Clear?

In the intervening years I had no problems citizenship-wise. I had vacations in the USA. I traveled on the continent. I went through immigration and customs without problems.

Once I lost my Home Office letter. Luckily, I arrived back at Heathrow from the US on the first plane to land that morning. Happy Days! I grabbed my luggage and rocked up to Immigration with no queue in sight! Very Happy Days! Because it was so early, I half expected to be waved on my way. No. The immigration officer quizzed me: where are you going? Norwich. Why? I live there. How long? 20-odd years. How am I supposed t know that? Damn it I lost my letter (soto voce) BTW- We had an Australian lady here who was stuck for weeks! Come on, give me a break, please? Okay, on your way. Lucky. I wonder how I might have fared if I had a black face? (I found the letter eventually and it is now safe again in my passport)

Is it stretching it to assume that the Windrush migrants were/are having so many problems because they are black? I don’t think so.

This is a result of government policy and TRUE BRIT. We must guard our borders! Why? We must be wary of strangers/foreigners. The WOGS start at Calais. This government – and to be fair – previous governments of all parties - have created an atmosphere where the Windrush migrants became easy targets. Immigration Officers believed they were carrying out government policy by making it as difficult as possible for black people to enter the homeland. What TOSH.

In his grave, and celebrating the Rivers of Blood speech he made 50 years ago, Enoch Powell must be having a good laugh at the mess he helped to create. The sooner the government and the people move on from the completely ridiculous idea that the whole world is laying siege to Britain the sooner we might get some compassion and sense into the problem. 

Two chances: fat and slim.