Run It Back

 

Chiefs Super Bowl Chances 2020-21

I have spent some time this week watching last year’s Super Bowl. Some things are real pointers as to how this Run it Back season may pan out.

Firstly, I was struck by how fortunate the Chiefs were to win last season. Behind for most of the game until 8 minutes left in the fourth, they somehow managed to find something great at just the right time.

The 49ers were unlucky, as well as out-played. Why did they lose? It’s an offensive league. Before the game the focus was on the San Francisco defensive front four and how they would dominate the Chiefs offensive line and make Patrick Mahomes run around scared all day – forcing bad throws and getting sacks. In fact, Mahomes was intercepted twice and missed a few receivers (at least in the first 32 minutes) and was sacked a few times. But critically, he had time to make the throw of the season to Hill for 40 yards – on a third and fifteen – and the rest, as they say, is history.

Fast-forward. How will the Bucs fare against the Tribe’s offensive fire-power? Is the Tampa pass rush as good as San Frans? Can Tampa sack Mahomes more than a few times? Can they pressure him into interceptions? Not likely. Not by a long shot. The Chiefs handled the Tampa rush quite well in the regular season game and I expect they will again. (Yes, I know they have injuries on the line, but somehow they always manage to find a way to protect Mahomes enough for him to make plays!)  Tampa will not be able to stop the Chiefs. I trust Reid and Spagnolo to scheme on both sides of the ball.

Again this season, just in time, the defence is coming good. They look as strong as last year on the defensive line with both Chris Jones and Frank Clark rounding into form at just the right time. This season’s secondary looks even stronger than the Super Bowl winning squad. Will Tom Brady be able to complete some passes? Yes, of course he will. Will he be able to hit the home-run ball? Not very likely, the Chiefs will pressure him and force a lot of short throws. They will sack him multiple times and hit him a few more and constantly force him out of his comfort zone. I can’t see the Bucs scoring more than 21 points. That will not be enough for the Chiefs as they will be good for 35+.

The coaching match-up is both interesting and crucial. Andy Reid does not lose with two weeks to prepare. Bruce Arians is in his first Super Bowl. The Buccaneers will be out-coached as well as out-played.

Am I being too optimistic?  Only time will tell, but there is a swagger about this team that refuses to go away.  I’m a believer.

What might derail the Run it Back tour? 

Injuries, particularly on both lines. The game is usually won or lost in the trenches. Super Bowl LV will be no exception. And, the Chiefs are quite short of replacements. In a two horse race the underdog always has a chance. For the Bucs to prevail they need everything to go their way, including the bounce of the odd - shaped ball. Whereas the Chiefs can win at 80 to 90 %of all factors. 

My prediction Chiefs by 10.

Reminds me of their first triumph. I took the Chiefs and gave 10 points. We all remember how that turned out. At the end I felt sorry for the Vikings. 65 TPT will shine again.