Run It Back

 

Chiefs Super Bowl Chances 2020-21

I have spent some time this week watching last year’s Super Bowl. Some things are real pointers as to how this Run it Back season may pan out.

Firstly, I was struck by how fortunate the Chiefs were to win last season. Behind for most of the game until 8 minutes left in the fourth, they somehow managed to find something great at just the right time.

The 49ers were unlucky, as well as out-played. Why did they lose? It’s an offensive league. Before the game the focus was on the San Francisco defensive front four and how they would dominate the Chiefs offensive line and make Patrick Mahomes run around scared all day – forcing bad throws and getting sacks. In fact, Mahomes was intercepted twice and missed a few receivers (at least in the first 32 minutes) and was sacked a few times. But critically, he had time to make the throw of the season to Hill for 40 yards – on a third and fifteen – and the rest, as they say, is history.

Fast-forward. How will the Bucs fare against the Tribe’s offensive fire-power? Is the Tampa pass rush as good as San Frans? Can Tampa sack Mahomes more than a few times? Can they pressure him into interceptions? Not likely. Not by a long shot. The Chiefs handled the Tampa rush quite well in the regular season game and I expect they will again. (Yes, I know they have injuries on the line, but somehow they always manage to find a way to protect Mahomes enough for him to make plays!)  Tampa will not be able to stop the Chiefs. I trust Reid and Spagnolo to scheme on both sides of the ball.

Again this season, just in time, the defence is coming good. They look as strong as last year on the defensive line with both Chris Jones and Frank Clark rounding into form at just the right time. This season’s secondary looks even stronger than the Super Bowl winning squad. Will Tom Brady be able to complete some passes? Yes, of course he will. Will he be able to hit the home-run ball? Not very likely, the Chiefs will pressure him and force a lot of short throws. They will sack him multiple times and hit him a few more and constantly force him out of his comfort zone. I can’t see the Bucs scoring more than 21 points. That will not be enough for the Chiefs as they will be good for 35+.

The coaching match-up is both interesting and crucial. Andy Reid does not lose with two weeks to prepare. Bruce Arians is in his first Super Bowl. The Buccaneers will be out-coached as well as out-played.

Am I being too optimistic?  Only time will tell, but there is a swagger about this team that refuses to go away.  I’m a believer.

What might derail the Run it Back tour? 

Injuries, particularly on both lines. The game is usually won or lost in the trenches. Super Bowl LV will be no exception. And, the Chiefs are quite short of replacements. In a two horse race the underdog always has a chance. For the Bucs to prevail they need everything to go their way, including the bounce of the odd - shaped ball. Whereas the Chiefs can win at 80 to 90 %of all factors. 

My prediction Chiefs by 10.

Reminds me of their first triumph. I took the Chiefs and gave 10 points. We all remember how that turned out. At the end I felt sorry for the Vikings. 65 TPT will shine again. 

Another Super Bowl?

 

Chiefs Play-off Chances

What a season. The Tribe sit at 14-1 with only the home game against the Chargers before the play-offs. Likely we will end up 14-2 as the Chargers will want to put one over on the reigning Champs and the Chiefs will rest almost everyone.

Last September, even accounting for the Covid-19 crisis, most fans would have settled for that and bitten your hand off to get it.

However, in the record books it will only say Super Bowl Champions 2020-21 and the virus will not get a mention.

So, how’s it looking? Most days I wake up and thank my lucky stars we won the last Super Bowl. I distinctly remember that during that improbable run I was continually consoling myself with the thought that even if we lost, and we came mighty close in most of the play-off games and the Super Bowl, there was always next season when we will be better. Now next season is now.

Then the Virus put paid to that comforting theory. We did win the big one, but can we do it again?

It’s beginning to look like the odds are against it. Fact is: the Chief’s record flatters to deceive. Sure, they keep winning, but not very convincingly, culminating in the embarrassing win at home versus the Falcons. Me and two of my buddies could have given Atlanta a game and the Chiefs struggled, needing a missed field goal to win.

Injuries are piling up. Big Red has decided to give the starters a week off (in addition to the one they get as the number one seed), St Patrick has begun to look almost human (throwing interceptions, missing open receivers, fumbling the ball), the O-line looks a shadow of its former self, the defense is just about adequate and not really rounding into Super Bowl shape at this late stage.

The verdict is definitely out. It may be that Reid will use the time and the rest provided wisely and when the play-offs roll into KC, courtesy of our number one ranking and the home field advantage really kicks in we will see a rejuvenated Arrowhead with a few thousand screaming fans rock the team to another AFL championship game and another appearance in the big one.

Maybe.

We are thin at RB. Edwards-Helllaire had a bad ankle and may not play at all going forward. Le’veon Bell has an injury, the back ups are probably not good enough to generate any rushing attack to speak of. Mahomes dropping back 50+ times and being chased all the time is not a recipe for success.

An outsider looking in would give the Bills a good chance to beat KC. So too, maybe the Titans who will still be smarting from last season’s debacle.

The irony is that nobody in the NFC has a chance against us. I would love to see the Packers in Super Bowl LV. Revenge for Super Bowl 1 would be very sweet indeed.

There is a lot of football to be played before then, that’s for sure. Wish us luck, we may well need it!

2020-21 Chiefs Draft

Chiefs draft and the NFL season looking forward.

With the caveat that there may be no season to look forward to at all!

This may well turn out to be the oddest season ever. With the coronavirus overseeing all efforts, predicting what may or may not happen to the Chiefs in 2020 could end up being more difficult than picking the winner of the Grand National - hang on, that will be easy, there isn't one this year because of the coronavirus!

Everything I see, hear or read confirms that the NFL powers that be are determined to produce some sort of season this year. They will move heaven and earth to play the 256 games of a regular NFL season. The how is not understood or even likely to be decided until so many factors which at present are complete unknowns become much clearer.

Still we proceed as if the season will be played, or we all just do a Rip Van Winkle, wake up in Jan 2021 and pretend it was all a bad dream.

The Chief's draft was interesting to say the least. Picking last in round one they very unexpectedly grabbed a running back from LSU, Clyde Edwards-Hillaire. All the pundits said this as a major cock-up. Nobody picks a running back in round one, they are a dime a dozen and even Kareem Hunt was a a third round pick. So, what's the deal? The tribe have 20 of the 2019 Super Bowl winning team returning. They grab what they feel is the back which best fits their scheme and bugger the pundits! Result? The Chiefs offence now looks almost impossible to stop. Edwards-Hillaire can catch the ball on the swing pattern and block.  What's not to like?  The pundits now think it's a genius pick.

The rest of the draft looks solid, though not addressing the corner-back position until round six again has those supposedly in the know gasping for air. Truth is what the draft was supposed to provide was solid football players who can be developed. If only Edwards-Hillaire is on the field for the opening set of downs this year, that's not a problem. If any of the others make the 53 man roster and contribute great! If not? Not.

Much has been made of how the rest of the league will be playing catch up with the Chiefs already way ahead. Why? Because with a short pre-season every other team is at a big disadvantage. They will have to get better quickly or just stand on their side-line and gawp as the red wave breaks over their heads and all NFL stadia need larger scoreboards to accommodate the points racked up by the Big Red.

We are a long way from another Super Bowl appearance in February 2021,and talk of a Chiefs dynasty is premature, but we can live in hope and, for the first time in 50 years, expectation.

Those genii at Pro Football Talk, Florio and Simms, are convinced that there will be a season. The NFL in conjunction with the politicians will make sure that NFL football happens in 2020. They may be right – only time will tell.

Until then the Chiefs are best placed to do the improbable – if not the impossible - and repeat as Super Bowl Champions in Feb 2021. Chop til you drop!

Football - A Nonsense

It’s a Funny Old Game

Grabbed an article from the Sunday Time (the seat of all knowledge) about football, or soccer, or association football whichever you prefer.

It’s been lying around on my desk for so long I’ve lost track of the date, but on the reverse side is a report of the Leeds Utd v Sheffield Wednesday match won by Leeds 1-0 – which, BTW is the most common score in any football match (the final tally was most often 1-0, proof,that soccer was as low-scoring as suspected. This result has occurred in more than 30,000 games — 16 percent of the total. Other common scores: 2-1 (about 27,000 games), 2-0 (about 22,000) and 1-1 (about 22,000). All highly interesting for stattoes but significant?

Back to the article: it begins with an injunction for anyone who wants to bet on Man Utd to beat Barcelona to progress to the s/f of the Champions League – on paper a fairly unlikely outcome (they lost 4-0 on aggregate).

The best odds from the bookies were 13/2. The true odds surely must be at least 10-0. After all, as the article says, Barcelona were a much better team, Man Utd have never beaten Barcelona in the Nou Camp and Manchester had lost 4 of their last five games. So, the bookies were right but the odds were a nonsense!

The reason football is so popular, so our author says, is down to two things, One: the system of reward in the game and two the influence of luck, good fortune or downright daft things happening.

The article insists that because the goals are so scarce when one does come along it rewards the fan for his patience. “It’s not like basketball, where they score every few numbing seconds or cricket where you wait five days to celebrate your draw.”

Correct. But the author has drawn all the wrong conclusions!

What he sees as defects in the aforementioned games are really their strengths.

He goes on: “the remarkable thing about football is that winning, statistically, takes about 50% ability and 50% luck – and you do not as mast managers insist on saying make your own luck. It just happens evenly distributed across all football teams.”

Chris Anderson and David Sally, in their book The Numbers Game – Why Everything You Know About Football is Wrong, collated stats that show that in a league game a poor side (no explanation of how to judge a poor side) will win 46% of the time against a much better team (again objective criteria missing). It is very different in rugby, basketball, baseball and American football. In those sports the better side has up to an 80% likelihood of winning. The longest odds for the favourite are always in football.

So. our author contends: the important reason why the game is so compelling. . . predictability goes out of the window. .. . we cannot be absolutely sure that our own team will get thumped when they play the league leaders, the way we could be sure if were supporting a basketball team.

This is just silly – even the league champions in basketball lose plenty of games.

The peroration: the authorities want the element of chance minimised so that the outcome of a game might genuinely be a reflection of brilliance versus mediocrity (and this is somehow a bad thing?) And we do this via the introduction of VAR, so that we can be sure that accident and chance are minimised. What if the thing the authorities are trying to get rid of is the main reason we all keep watching?

The entire premise of this article is just wrong. Even in the sports he mentions there is a large amount of chance.

I give as an example: The KC Chiefs having been outplayed for the whole of the first quarter v the New England Patriots dragged themselves back into the play-off game to draw even after normal time. Predictably they lost the toss and lost the overtime game. At the end of regulation time they would have won had not one of their players lined up in an off-side position. KC fans were, of course, disappointed and despondent, but able to accept the defeat as the loss was the fault of the Chiefs players and not some chance occurrence.

Contrast this with a match I remember well: European Cup Final 1975 - Bayern Munich went into the match as favourites, because they were the reigning champions. Watched by a crowd of 48,374, Leeds had the best of the opening exchanges of the match and had two appeals for a penalty kick turned down by the referee Michel Kitabdjian. Bayern suffered two injuries in the first half to defender Björn Andersson and striker Uli Hoeneß, following strong tackles by Leeds players. A Peter Lorimer goal for Leeds in the 62nd minute was disallowed, when Billy Bremner was adjudged to be offside. Franz Roth scored in the 71st minute for Bayern and Gerd Müller extended the lead ten minutes later, to secure a 2–0 victory for Bayern.

It was Bayern's second consecutive victory in the competition, although they failed to retain their Bundesliga title, finishing in 10th place. Riots by the Leeds fans during the match led to UEFA banning the club from European competition for four years, although this was reduced to two years on appeal.

The riot was the direct result of the Leeds fans sense of injustice. Their team had out-played the opposition. The very thing that the article praises directly caused the riot. Notwithstanding that many football fans – particularly in the 70’s and 80’s were then and may remain first class morons – the sense of the basic unfairness of the game was the major factor in the riot. Basketball, rugby and NFL fans do not riot – chiefly because they know the rules of the game are designed so that the best team wins most of the time. Upsets do happen and everyone loves an underdog but the burning sense of injustice is avoided when your team is beaten fair and square by the better team.

The odd thing is that football is moving towards the 21^st century – albeit very slowly. Those seemingly more hide-bound games like cricket and rugby have adopted technology as a way to make the game fairer.

Football is way behind and were it not for the seemingly endless propensity for the fans to tolerate any manner of nonsense it would have been dragged screaming and kicking into the modern era.

More idiots like our author do not help.

Red Sieve or Red Peril

Chiefs Post Season Chances

What a roller coaster! Where to start? Kareem Hunt.

What a tragedy for a young professional sportsman. It was interesting to see Arrowhead Pride take down the fan comment feed shortly after it was announced that Hunt would be released (fire effectively) with immediate effect. Whilst on a human level it is right to feel compassion for Kareem, on a professional level the Chiefs organization acted swiftly and correctly. Notwithstanding the obvious, Kareem lied to his employers about an alleged assault. In most occupations this is grounds for instant dismissal. Chiefs fans who really think some other plan might have worked are seriously deluded. Mr Hunt has left the building and he’s not coming back.

What consolation there is may be gained from knowing that in the medium to long term excellent running backs are not in short supply. With Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware set to become a running back by committee with Darrell Williams the Chiefs are not short of bodies. None, however can match the skill set of Hunt. Fans should just consider that he had a season-ending injury and move on. That’s the only choice.

Next: The Chiefs sighed Kelvin Benjamin today to bolster their receiving corps. It’s a one year deal. Not a problem. Benjamin gives them cover in a skill position. How much he plays is another question. He’s a good player. It’s a good move.

Negative: Eric Berry; Chiefs’ Thursday injury report vs. Ravens: Eric Berry limited again, could be on snap count if active Sunday. No-one can really figure out what the Berry situation is! He’s been on the roster all year and has not played a down. Common sense would tell you that the Chiefs believe he will be able to play sometime this season or they would have put him on injured reserve by now. Then again – if he does play can he really “fix” what is the worst KC defence ever? I can’t see how.

History tell you that the best way to have a successful post-season run is to lock down home field advantage. Right now the Chiefs are the Number One seed in the AFC. Can they hold that spot? We may learn on Sunday when they entertain the Ravens. The Ravens are fighting for their lives and will prove a stern test. Beating them would go a long way towards getting the number one spot. Oh, wait a minute they also have the surging Chargers (home) and Seattle (away) to overcome. The number one spot doesn’t really look so easy now – does it? Then again – even the number two seed is good – at least you get a week off. And, even playing the Pats in the AFC Championship game in Foxboro doesn’t look all that frightening. Sum up: Barring real disaster, Chiefs make the play-offs.

How far could they go?

Not too far.

Why?

They have no defence. Even with an average defence they would have a chance. The one they have is so far behind average that it makes anyone else’s look good. The truth is the Chiefs are wholly dependent on Patrick Mahomes – who has delivered a miracle of a season so far. Should he get hurt – finito!

The Chiefs are one draft and one free-agency away from a Super Bowl. And, not just an appearance, but winning the whole tamale. Fans would do well not to get caught up in the hype, enjoy the ride as long as it lasts and look forward with optimism. Fact: defense wins Super Bowls. End of.

Update: Chiefs beat the Raiders easily to secure the number one spot in the AFL Play-offs.  The Colts beat Houston easily to set up a match at Arrowhead next Saturday.  Mal's worst nightmare

One and Done - Minus the One

Chiefs Blow it Big Time

An historic loss and I watched the whole thing live courtesy of Sky Sports. Happy Days. I almost wish I had had the flu and only had to read about it the next day!

But no – like the live-streaming of a train wreck – you just have to watch even when you know the outcome is going to be a disaster.

UGLY: What was that call?

Marcus Mariota fumbled the football on the play, which Justin Houston recovered, but it was ruled a stoppage of forward progress, which cannot be challenged. This was the first of two questionable forward progress calls on the evening.

The Titans kicked a field goal to get on the board.

"Anyway that aside, I have to say that these rules now a days are getting very complicated and they are starting to pull at the fabric of the game. The forward progress call where Mariota fumbled was egregious and atrocious. The quarterback was standing still - the impact of the hit jarred the football loose and the referee decided to call his forward progress stopped - even though he was standing still looking downfield - negating an obvious fumble. The definition of a sack fumble has now been called into question. Calls like this should never happen and yet are becoming routine and familiar. These calls are absurd and way overcomplicated. So I wanted to open a discussion and see what people think should be done to stop this lunacy of calls. Instead of a rant I thought it may be constructive to have a discussion about solutions to a problem rather than being pissed that we follow the biggest choke artists in sports. Hence this post.”

“The odd thing was – at half time with the score 21-3 and I was thinking that if we can get a touchdown on the next possession maybe we can rest some of the starters for next week’s encounter with the Steelers. (Talk about some rose-coloured lenses).

Then the wheels not only came off but went rolling off indifferent directions. The running the ball plan was abandoned (it wasn’t working anyway). The injuries piled up (two were extremely critical – Travis Kelce and Chris Jones). The defense began to show their true form (the Greeks have a word for it “pathos”). Finally, Alex Smith (in what will surely be his last game in red) began to look confused and shell-shocked, as if “surely this can’t happen again!” Oh, yes it can and it did, Alex.

At the end of the day the truth is the Chiefs lost because they did not make enough good plays on either offence or defence. This self-evident analysis is only useful going forward if it forms the basis for progress.

Let’s start with the offence: where, at least, there were some bright sparks.

Alex Smith has been a great servant to the franchise, but next year he is just trade bait. Patrick Mahomes will be the QB and the Chiefs cannot afford to have Alex as a back-up. He goes for either high draft picks or a quality player which fills a need. We have the rushing leader in Kareem Hunt. That should be enough! No, it is not. In he Titans game, he was generally ineffective, whilst a much leas talented back got the glory for the Titans by pounding the Chiefs D-line. We could use a real pounder as compliment to Hunt. At Tight end we have Travis Kelce and when he got injured the game was lost. Demetrius Harris and Orson Charles are poor, and very poor respectively substitutes. The much talked-about Chiefs three tight end offence was shown to be nonsense. We need another proven tight end via the draft or free agency. The O-line has been poor all season. Some good games have only masked the inadequacies. Upgrades are required across the board. You simply cannot have a rookie QB with a poor O-line and a one-dimensional running game. The core of the problem is the receiving corps. Alex has been hampered all season by a lack of quality receivers to throw to. Mahomes will need proven NFL receivers and some top draft picks to come in and challenge for starting spots. The Chiefs have been making do with Tyreek Hill – who is not really a wide-receiver at all! Getting in some real big-bodied wide-outs who can catch the ball is the number one priority!

Moving on to Special Teams. What a disappointment. In the most critical game of the season they made one play – a fumble recovery on a punt. Result: no points. The Butt Kicker missed a chip shot. Shame to blame him but it comes with the job. He makes it and we probably win. Shame because he is very good and will have the job next season. Dustin Colquitt will be a free agent and may go. I can see a low draft pick being used on the next Chiefs career punter.

The Chiefs defense is overall graded at about D or C- at best. D-line needs help and players who could help are not on the roster. LB’s are D at best. Help! Help! The secondary is solid but needs another quality cornerback and a safety (even if Eric Berry returns and is in his old form.)

There are no mysteries here. You can call it a rebuilding year or a revamping year or a treading water exercise, call it what you will. Problem is almost every other team will be looking for the same things!

Still, until these issues are addressed and solved the next play-off win is a mirage in the distance.

Super Bowl 51

Super Bowl 2017 - an upset?

I have been putting it off for as long as I can. Firstly, a bit of history – my Super Bowl picks are notorious for their inaccuracy. I study hard and then come up with the wrong analysis and, inevitably, the wrong winner. Nevertheless, here goes.

Looking at it from a Chiefs perspective, having beaten the Falcons in Georgia this season you might think it's a done deal – Pats to win. Of course, it is not quite that simple. But for the Grace of God go the Chiefs to the Super Bowl where they may well have been favourites over Atlanta. But, as we all know, that didn't happen. And like all teams Atlanta are not the same team as in early December. Neither, of course, are the Patriots – who the Chiefs did not play this year.

The point? We are stuck with analysis. You can of course rely on the bookies. The problem is they are still licking their wounds after taking a pasting on the Donald and Brexit. How about Vegas? The Pats are about 3 point favourites. That seems about right to me.

The Patriots have no obvious weakness, and they have Tom Brady. That's worth about 3 points.

The Falcons may be susceptible to the run and their pass defence is not great. They will have to play an almost perfect game to win.

The Pats do not make mistakes. They protect Brady well and have a serviceable running game. Their short-passing game means it's difficult to get to Brady and disrupt his timing.

The Falcons have an explosive offence. They have multiple weapons and in Julio Jones a real star. They are going to score points – the question is how many and how often. Can they get Brady and Co. off the field? Can they avoid fumbles, etc?

My record is based on defence. I firmly believe that defence wins Super Bowls, but only if it matches up well with the opponents offence.

I'm not sure the Pats match up well.

It's the kiss of death, but I'm taking Atlanta by a touchdown. (apologies to all Falcons fans.)

Chiefs Inept?

Chiefs Woes Continue

I've been lucky. The scheduling has meant that the Chiefs have been live on TV for two of the three games so far this season.

(I can hear someone out there screaming that I've been very unlucky the way they are playing!)

Fans could just about take the lacklustre performance against the Texans – at least we won the game. You could make some kind of a case for the effort against the Broncos. Given just a little bit of co-operation from the football gods, we could have won.

But, the Packers? The Packers? Crisis time is looming large.

Now don't get me wrong, the Packers are a good football team. But, disappointingly, and I mean ugly disappointingly, the Chiefs made them look like a great football team. One of my enduring images of the game was Aaron Rogers sitting on the sidelines (having constructed a big lead) looking over the results of his efforts and smiling condescendingly.

Forget the score. The Chiefs were never in this game.

Why? Where to start?

On offence the Chiefs could not move the ball. The tone was set right at the beginning. The pre-game hype had it that the boys in red could run the ball and Jamaal Charles would have a big day. He got 49 yards on 11 carries. The three TD's are irrelevant. The running game was more or less non existent the whole game. Meanwhile the Packers could keep the Chiefs defense honest by rushing for 130 yards.

So, we had to rely on Alex Smith to win the game with his arm. Not pretty sight. Again the stats are misleading. The Great Hope that was Jeremy Macklin had no catches in the first half. He finished with what looks like a respectable afternoon – 8 catches for 141 and a touchdown. Take away the one big catch and he averages about 10 yards a catch. For this we paid big money? (Watching him miss simple downfield blocking assignments was too painful to comment on.)

On defence, the tribe looked like rabbits in the headlights. Tamba Hali had a sack. The containment of a mobile QB like Rogers was on a high school level. The tacking dummy would have been of more use than the real players. It was embarrassing to watch. The Packers had seven sacks and god knows how many hurries.

So, is this just a bad day at the office? Was this just a game the Chiefs were destined to lose anyway? Can they put this performance behind them and move on?

The signs are not good.

Andy Reid's post-game press conference was interesting. He could barely contain his exasperation at the lack of skill, preparation or professionalism in the team. It is his job to prepare the players, and I'm now wondering if he is up to it.

Yes, it's only game three. There is another game away next week (mercifully not on TV, I hope) against the 3-0 Bungles who were narrow winners over the Ravens.

Another poor performance by Reid, Smith and the other starters could start the boo-boys, start the calls for Chase Daniels at QB, start the call for Reid to go and start the beginning, if not the end, of a reality check. A one and three start is staring the Chiefs in the face and the omens are not good.

Chiefs at the Crossroads

Chiefs 2014-5 Review

Well the dust has just about settled on the 2014 NFL season. There is the small item of the Super Bowl to come this Sunday, but for most of us it's time to evaluate last season and look forward to a draft day and a long hot summer before we get back to the action in September.

BTW, do you know which team owns victories against the Super Bowl contenders this season? Yep – it's the Chiefs. The destroyed New England on 29 September 41 – 14 (I was at Arrowhead) and they beat Seattle 24 – 20 in November. Did they peak too soon? Certainly looks like it.

Summing up the season: if the Chiefs had not imploded against the Oakland Raiders and failed to show up against the Tennessee Titans in the opener; they would have waltzed into the play-offs and might still be playing. But, as they say, that's football.

So, how did it all come about? What lessons are to be learned? Where do we go from here?

Number one – the Chiefs had no production from the wide receivers. This has already been well-documented. This is probably the reason they didn't make the play-offs, so we can move on to other more interesting topics.

Lessons to be learned – it's becoming a game of inches – literally. More and more there are imponderables that affect the result of games. The officials miss a call – the wide receiver drops a sitter – the cornerback slips at an inopportune moment – the list is getting longer every season. Hence we have the NFL's stated goal becoming more and more to the fore. Any given Sunday. It's a fine line between winning and losing and most teams can make a good case for “we wuz robbed”!

Where do we go from here? Firstly, I found on Arrowhead Pride a chart grading the Chiefs players for this season. Interesting reading.

According to the grading system used the Tribe had only three Elite players: Justin Houston, Sean Smith and Anthony Sherman. Hard to argue with these but when your blocking fullback is one of your elites – it says a lot (BTW the NFL average is 2).

In the Good category we have only two – Travis Kelce and Rodney Hudson. Two offensive players I will grant you. (Can't see how Kelce gets in - the man drops too many easy catches!) The NFL Average is 4.3.

We have 18 Average players. Tamba Hali, Jamal Charles and Alex Smith are in this category. Surprises might include Dontari Poe (too low) and Zac Fulton (too high). The NFL average is 21.

In the Bad category we find 8 Chiefs. Eric Fisher is in. So is Knile Davis. The NFL average is 5.8.

So anything interesting here? Well for starters comparing your team to the NFL average is not very useful. I'd like to see how we stack up against the play-off teams. That's a better area with which to make a meaningful comparison.

In any event, 2014 was a rebuilding year. We won more games that I predicted at the start. We had some excellent wins and some surprising losses.

What does 2015 hold in store?

As the song says, the only way is up!

The Chiefs are two or three players away from a guaranteed play-off appearance next season. And, once you make the play-offs anything is possible!

The draft will have to improve (where is Dee Ford – top pick in 2014?)

With improvements on the offensive line and also at wide-out we could easily improve on the season's record. (Added bonus – Peyton Manning will almost certainly retire!)

2015 should bring better times.

Crazy NFL

Any Given Sunday?

With the Chiefs poised to miss out on the play-offs this season (barring a miracle of monumental proportions) it's time to take stock.

Most people know that I am no real fan of soccer. Conversely, I'm a big NFL fan – mostly of the Chiefs, but I will religiously watch the play-offs no matter who's in and who's out.

My big gripe with soccer football is the basic unfairness of the game.

Good play often gets no reward and minor mistakes can be punished far more than is warranted. When it comes to officiating, things are even worse. One man, the referee, attempts to police a large field with 22 people trying to kick a ball (and sometimes each other). In some respects it is a minor miracle that the ref gets some things correct at all. Take Saturday's Derby v Norwich City game. I said at the time that the ref had a good game. Some of the decisions he made seemed wrong at first glance but, in replay he was absolutely correct. My only gripe was about the “non-decisions” - the ones where fouls that should have been given weren't – the free kicks wrongly awarded – that sort of stuff. So, when the game is so close and goals so ridiculously difficult to score every small error by the ref is multiplied and affects the game much more that it should. Soccer is just too haphazard for me. One team can clearly play better, create more scoring chances, defend well, run rings around the opposition and still lose because the ref makes a big mistake. Not good enough.

Wait a minute! Looking over the NFL results from last week, I was summarily hoisted on my own petard!

I always do the prediction game in the KC Star – for a bit of fun. Last week I thought I had a few bankers. Firstly I had the Eagles to beat the Redskins. Score: Eagles 24 – Redskins 27. I had the 49ers to whomp on the Chargers at home. Result: Chargers 38 – San Fran 35. Everyone had the Packers to slaughter the hapless Tampa Bay Bucks. Result: Pack 20 – Bucks 3 (GB should have won this easily whilst resting their starters). Lions 20 – Bears 14 – me and my gran should be able to beat the Bears. Detroit are supposed to be challenging for a Super Bowl berth. The NY Giants beat the St Louis Rams 37 – 27. The Panthers beat the Browns! And, on Monday night the Bungles beat the Broncos. Finally, the Raiders beat the Bills 26 – 24. (Even though the Old Enemy beat the Chiefs – which will probably cost the boys in red a play-off spot – they are without a doubt the worst team in the league!)

What's going on?

All my injunctions about “Any Given Sunday” seem to be happening at once. And it is just the very small things that are costing teams bit-time.

Take the Chiefs on Sunday. Some very tough calls by the officials (Charles fumble – a crazy spot short of the first down, an absolutely set-in-stone pass interference call in favour of Albert Wilson that the officials missed, missed and missed again, etc.) meant that the game was decided not by the players but by the officials.

Just what I gripe about regarding association football.

Maybe I need a rethink?

Chiefs Flying High

Chiefs Sitting Pretty

As the first half of the season finishes, the Chiefs find themselves with the only unbeaten record in the NFL and with a winnable game at Buffalo next week and then the bye week things could not really be better for a team that could not beat anyone just twelve months ago.

The glory of the NFL remains intact. A very poor team from a year ago – but perhaps not quite as bad as the 2-14 record would indicate – can turn it around and sit proudly atop the rankings. How can this be, and what is even more important, can they keep it up?

Firstly the Tribe have been very lucky. It must be said. Every week we seem to run into a banged-up defence and a QB who is either a rookie or a cast-off. Meanwhile the Chiefs have had few injuries. The defence is playing out of their skins (hope they haven't peaked too soon) and the offence is adequate. The turn-over stats tell it all. Last season we gave the ball and the game away with reckless abandon.

The turn around has been as welcome as it is staggering. We keep the ball and grab turn-overs from the other guys. QB Alex Smith looks after the football, runs when he has to and completes enough passes to keep opposing defences honest. The run game is productive and new ways to get Jamal Charles involved have been found.

Result: Chiefs look a balanced team with a terrific chance to get to 9-0 with the bye week in the offing. Happy Days! Super Bowl here we come!

Not quite.

Lest we forget and get carried away, because of last year's disaster we have a very easy schedule this year. In fact the real season is the Western Division of the AFL. The six games against Denver, Oakland and San Diego will decided just how much progress has been made. We are one up on the Raiders. We have Denver in week 11 at Mile High. We have the two games against San Diego to come.

Only after we have played most of these games will a real evaluation be possible.

I did see most of the Broncos – Washington Redskins game yesterday and was quite encouraged with what I saw. The Redskins stayed with the home team for a long time – even leading at half-time. They ran the ball very effectively against the Denver defence.

True – they faded in the fourth quarter, but it does look like Denver is beatable by a team that looks after the football and can run it. We can beat the Raiders again, but it will be much closer out on the West Coast. San Diego remains an enigma. They could be good – or they could be atrocious.

Whatever happens, the combination of a new coach, Andy Reid, new management, a new proven QB and progress throughout the team means the future is looking rosy.

Whether a 2014 Super Bowl is achievable whilst questionable, but not out of the question.

Chiefs Sink and Fast

Picking your way out of trouble?

Trying to account for the Chiefs disastrous season so far is a bit like trying to find an honest man in politics – hard to do and over ripe with choices.

Having got egg all over my face (not the only one I may add) in predicting a break-out season, what has gone wrong?

Obviously, if I knew that I'd be the General Manager or Coach or both.

But, I think I've got a handle on something that might go some way to explain the terrible smell coming out of Arrowhead at the moment.

You will remember that General Manager Pioli has long advocated building the team through the draft. His special talent is (or is supposed to be) identifying talent and signing the right players. That's the way to success on the field, he says.

So, how has he done and, more importantly, how have the Chiefs done in the draft in general?

Lets go back to 05 for the starter. Pioli wasn't around then but it's just 8 years ago and by now something should have happened? Surely? I could have started in 09 when Pioli came on board but the picture would seem depressingly similar – or even worse.

Starting on 05 allows some comparison with what came before Pioli and what came after. And, all the first round picks since 05 are still on the KC roster. So, it makes sense that they should be the basis of the team and the team should be winning a lot of games – at least that was the Pioli plan.

In 05 the Chiefs went for Derrick Johnson, a line backer. Is he in the starting line up? Yes, quite regularly. Is he making big plays and stuffing the run and intercepting passes? A bit. Yes, just a bit. Give him a C+.

In 06 we got Tamba Hali – originally a defensive end but now a line backer in the 3-4 defence. He has made the pro-bowl and regularly features in the sack count. Give him a B.

In 07 the Chiefs drafted Dwayne Bowe a wide receiver. How's he done? He's made pro bowl appearances and regularly leads the team in receptions and yardage. He drops too many balls, everyone will tell you that. Can get a B-

08 was a big year – we had two picks in the first round. Glen Dorsey and Branden Albert both came on-board. Dorsey is a bit player, He starts at defensive end – when he's fit. He has never shook off the number one pick disease and gone on to stardom. He's barely adequate and gets a D.

This, incidentally, is the start of the Pioli reign. Branden Albert is a starter on the O-line and has done quite well. He's solid and dependable. His pass protection is generally good and he can run block. He's a good player. Is he a great one? No. He can have a B-.

In 09 Tyson Jackson was drafted in round one. He's opposite Dorsey on the D-line. He's adequate. He may get better. He is only a D+ on present form.

In 10 Safety Eric Berry was picked at number one – fifth overall in the draft. He was going to be the lynch pin around which the defence would solidify. Before he had a serious knee injury and sat out all of last season he was living up to the hype. Now he may struggle to regain the momentum. He's a good player but the jury is out on whether he can be the world-beater we hoped for. At present he's a C-.

Wide receiver Jon Baldwin was the 11 pick. So far this is a disaster happening before out eyes. His numbers are poor. His play is poor. He has never really recovered from a chequered start to his NFL career – as the speculation about a pre-season injury never was cleared up satisfactorily. I had Bowe and Baldwin as a real twin receiving threat. This has never happened. He can only get an E.

Finally we took Dontari Poe, a real nose tackle, in the 12 draft. I thought he'd be the final piece in the puzzle. Now with three first round picks on the D-line, the pieces all fit together. No-one could run the ball on us and we'd get pressure on all QB's. Not happened. He may be a rookie but he seems not to be a factor. He can only manage a D-.

Something really depressing is building up. The Pioli picks are all bombing.

That's why we have never led in a game this season and why we are 1-8.

I'd like to see the way back, but I can't.

I'm depressed.

Chiefs Prospects 2012

The Draft Approaches and Free Agency is open.

Oh, what could have been. Strangely, the Chiefs remainded in the AFC West race for a long time despite the crippling injuries that blighted the 2011 season. This may be a reflection of the weakness in the AFC West with the Broncos (with no real QB) slipping into the playoffs and getting murdered.

It is so easy to blame the Chiefs' demise on the injuries in key positions, but good teams have depth and the Chiefs were not a good team in 2011 – their lack of depth, particularly at the crucial skill position, was there for all to see.

We move on.

Because the West is so poor, the Chiefs may start as favourites this season despite some woeful games last year.

Why? Everyone else may be worse – assuming Payton Manning doesn't sign for Denver!

Free Agency opens soon, so it's a good time for a review of each position.

Offence

QB

Got to start here as so the QB goes, so goes the Chiefs. We have Matt Cassell and Ricky Stanzl under contract. Kyle Orton did a passable job at the last minute last season. We have to assume that Cassell will still start, poor old Tyler Palko will disappear and Stanzl will get a shot at the back-up. Orton will not be resigned. Personally I think Cassell is in the Last Chance Saloon and if a top QB was available he could go.

Options? Go for a QB in the draft at number 11? Not likely. Sign a free agent back-up to challenge for Cassell's job? I hope so. Clearly we need a battle to become the starter from all the incumbents and any joiners – otherwise there isn't much point of having a training camp. For the record, Cassell has never convinced me he is a tier-two QB – and that's all we need.

RB

Lost Charles almost before the season started and never recovered. There is no reliable back-up – assuming Charles returns to action and is as productive as he has been. I think this is a big “if”! There is a long tradition of low draft picks and even undrafted rookies making a bit impact in the NFL. The Chiefs could use some of that!! But Chiefs will probably not “waste” a round one or two pick on a running back. Fullback is an area of concern. Free agency?

TE

Tony Moeaki. That's it. When he went down (and he has a long and well-documented history of injury) the Chiefs had no real back-up. The Chiefs offense, along with almost every other team in the NFL, now relies on a pass-catching tight end who can also block. Remember Tony Gonzales? I was hoping he might win a Super Bowl with Atlanta but not that seems unlikely. Shame for a future Hall-of-Famer. When will we see his like again?

WR

I called for a number one pick to be a wide reciever last year and was rewarded with Jonathan Baldwin. He promptly and mysteriously injured himself and didn't see action until about game six. He may well, we hope, have a break out season. We still need depth at this critical position. Free agency may be the answer. I see Colston of New Orleans is available. Absolute magic!!

OL

With Casey Wiegmann retiring it looks like his replacement is already on board in the person of Rodney Hudson. If he is as good as the retiree then the Chiefs are set at this position for the next decade. Albert and Asamoah look like sure starters but again there is little depth. I would not be surprised to see the Chiefs Number One pick be a offensive lineman.

Defence

Safety

Eric Berry should be back and healthy. But, anyone coming off a complete season-ending injury may not ever be as good again. That's football. Kendrick Lewis looks like the other starter with some depth at this position as well.

CB

One of the Brandons – either Flowers or Carr is almost sure to go in free agency. We have Areanas as back-up. Corner backs do not grow on trees. Chiefs to strengthen through the draft with free agency a possibility.

LB

The lack of depth and quality scares me. After Hali and Johnson there are lots of possibles and not too may certains. Strangely, the Chiefs' heirarchy seems very upbeat about this position. I wish I could join them.

DL

After Dorsey and Tyson Jackson this group looks solid but unspectacular. There is no nose tackle with Gregg almost certain to retire and Gilberry and Gordon in free agency. Lost of activity predicted in both the draft and free agency or we are in big trouble.

Kickers

There is none better than Colquitt and Succop usually performs well. No point in wasting a draft choice as you are only as good as your last miss and field goal kickers are always available. Wouldn't be surprised to see an undrafted rookie providing the competition in training camp.

Coaches

I was surprised at Todd Haley's dismissal. The Chiefs rarely do things that way. Rumour is he lost the dressing room big time. Romeo Crennel has experience and some good coaches around him. Apparently the players like him. It's a precarious occupation.

My prediction for 2012: Chiefs to improve to 10-6 or 11-5, and will win the AFC West and promptly depart in the first round of the playoffs.

Any Given Sunday

Chiefs inconsistent or just normal?

As the Raiders beat the Chargers to move to 5 and 4 the Chiefs wait in the wings to pick up the pieces and get a grip on the AFC West. Will it happen?

Who knows?

What is certain is that nothing is certain. That's for sure.

Why? Because the old any give Sunday has never been so true as it is today. Just look at the San Diego – Raiders game. Experts called it a San Diego opportunity, but the Raiders had different ideas. Still, the game was close and Carson Palmer performed well after the mauling the Chiefs dished out to him.

Except for a few big plays the game was a toss-up.

The Chiefs host a much improved Denver team this week and desperately need a win to keep up with Oakland. Have they any reason for optimism? Not really.

Last time out they were embarrassed by a Miami team without a win (any given Sunday).

Their home form has been erratic to say the least.

If you were a bookmaker you'd bet on Denver, and this is not just getting down on the home boys, but a measure of how poorly the Chiefs are look at the half-way stage.

The offence cannot really generate a running game and therefore Matt Cassell cannot generate a passing game. QED, the Chiefs are going to struggle unless they can untrack some kind of rushing game. Can they do it? Looks problematical.

Tebow dishes out something different and the Chiefs look vulnerable to a running game.

The defence will have to have a big game, with interceptions as well as hurries and fumble recoveries.

Prediction time: hate to say it but Denver may well win.

Re-group time for the Reds – it might be next year before we really have a team.

Hope Springs Eternal for Chiefs

Play offs or Goof Offs

It's now more than 40 years since the Chiefs Super Bowl win.

Could this be time to do it again? Is there ever a bad time!!

Reality check – The tribe won last year's AFL west title mostly because everyone else was worst than they were. Tough – but true. They finished 10-6 (coming off a 4-12 season) and lost their first play-off game since pigs stopped flying. Not exactly cause for organising a premature Super Bowl party!

But, things are looking up.

It appears the management have a plan and are sticking to it.

The Chiefs will run the ball and that's generally how you win football games. They drafted a top receiver in the first round and this will finally give Matt Cassel some weapons on offence. The defence look ok and this is the worry.

With an average offence and cracker-jack defence you can win a Super Bowl. The other way around and you'd have to get lucky.

So, as this year's defence goes, so go the Chiefs chances of a deep run into the play-offs of a shot at the big one.

How are they shaping up?

Coaches are expecting a second and third year burst from many players, particularly on defence. The secondary looks strong – very strong at the corners and safety. This is essential. The D-line is less secure and will have to play big to bring results. Chiefs have moved to strengthen the line in free agency. Good move.

Line backers are a worry. Almost to a man they are still learning the 3-4 and how they improve this season will probably decide how the Chiefs progress.

Then we have QB. This is the season for Matt Cassel to join the the premier league of quarterbacks. If he does then the Tomahawkers are sitting pretty – if not the tomahawks may be out for his scalp!

In the end, as Cassel goes, so goes the Chiefs!

Chiefs EOS report

Very good - in parts

I was amazed to read the KC Star's evaluation of the Chiefs performance in the play-off game against Baltimore. I know we got beat by a healthy margin, but overall I thought the result flattered the Ravens and did not reflect the Chiefs contribution to the game.

I watched the first part live and after Charles had busted a long run against a seemingly impregnable Ravens defence to give the Chiefs a 7-3 lead I was very pleased. We could run the ball. They were not too good in the Red Zone.

Then things went wrong. Fumbles. Interceptions. We lost.

However, it's a game of inches. Too often the Chiefs missed what should have been a first down with a poor play call or execution. With errors, they forced themselves into obvious passing situations and away from their running game. The defence played well for two downs. Third down looked too easy for Baltimore and they converted too many of them too easily.

EOS report – offence

QB Matt Cassell is still not a shoe-in to be the Chiefs long-term QB. He had a good season operating behind the league's leading running attack. It's not clear if he's capable of leading a team when plan one fails. Juries out.

RB Jamal Charles is (barring injuries) in the team forever. A diamond.

O-line – a solid unit that can both run block and pass block. Can still be strengthened.

Receivers – one area the Chiefs are lacking. Bowe was good, until he came up against a quality defence that was able to double-team him all day. He needs help. I expect the Chiefs to focus on this area in free-agency and draft choices.

EOS report – defence

Three down men are not dominant enough either in stopping the run or getting pressure. Changes needed. I'd draft the top monster nose tackle available.

LB's are not good enough. Baltimore exposed them ruthlessly.

Secondary is the bright spot. We need a top safety. Berry was very good for a rookie and will only get better with help.

Special teams – very good throughout the season.

Overall the Chiefs can look forward with some optimism. Next year's schedule is tougher. This is good, for only against better teams can you measure progress.

Worryingly, the Chiefs won only 2 games against division opponents. This must be addressed. At five and one in the division KC would have been 13-3 in the regular season and one of the top play-off seeds. That's the goal for next season.

Hope the “sophomore jinx” doesn't hit!

Winning isn't everything - it's the only thing!

Chiefs must get offence untracked soon!!

Chiefs 3-0 – and ugly. And probably lucky as well. Defence excellent – special teams awesome – offence almost non-existent.

Rookie tight-end Tony Moeaki is the leading receiver. Running game is very good to excellent.

So, where's the problem?

Simple – one word (actually two) QB. Unless the Chiefs can get the passing game untracked, their good start will be for nought! You can't win in the NFL unless you can pass the football - unless you are the Baltimore Ravens and your QB is Trent Dilfer.

Where do we go from here?

It's unpopular, but it's probably more to due with the coaches than the players. Chiefs QB, Matt Cassell, is not making plays – that's for sure. But, what plays are being sent in? Is he failing to execute, or is he just not getting the right calls from the side-lines? Reading his comments on the Chiefs web site you'd be excused for thinking he's putting up all-pro numbers. He's all smiles and all enthusiastic. What he needs now is a good game with big numbers.

So, after all the gloom the Chiefs run into the Colts and actually do quite well, but they lose. Why? See above. With the defence making Manning look almost ordinary and the running game operating well it only took some spark from Cassell and a famous victory would have been there for the taking.

So, what went wrong? Cassell. Cassell. Cassell. Although he didn't get much help from his receivers (surely they can't keep dropping easy catches forever, can they?), the truth is commentators are already questioning his ability to be an NFL quarterback. The Brodie Croyle mob will be unpacking their knives and sharpening them in the garage soon.

Cassell has a few more chances – but only a few – starting today at Houston. If the rest of the team fires as it has been and he can't move the offence, then his time is running out faster than a pig with diarrhoea!

Chiefs Prospects 2010

The season officially got under way yesterday when the Chiefs took on the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta. Score: 20-10 to the Falcons.

The important thing is how have the Chiefs strengthened their team in the off-season and what are the prospects for some improvement this year?

Looking at the game in some detail and comparing the performances with the areas that need improvement should give us an indication of any progress.

At QB, Matt Cassel fumbled once. Brodie Croyle led one good 70 yard drive, but also had an interception. Tyler Palko was intercepted, but went on to lead a fourth quarter scoring drive. Verdict: not much to cheer about.

At running back Jamal Charles and rookie Dexter McCluster both had productive games.

Javier Arenas, rookie, had two excellent punt and kick off returns.

Defence held it's own.

Should we start to plan a Super Bowl Party? Bit early to say but the indications are positive (from very little evidence). Advice: don't book any hotel rooms just yet!

So, what is the purpose of the pre-season games? In one word – 53.

Players will be evaluated now on game performances not just practice. For example, Rookie free agent Jeremy Horne apparently got open deep twice but the QB's were unable to find him. For a rookie free agent this is a disaster! Maybe the coaches will see the fact that he got open as making him worthy of a roster spot. Maybe not. He should be paying the QB's to throw him the ball! That's the only way he makes the team – unless he's dynamite on special teams!

The pre-season is all about making the team, and it's not just the rookies. Some veteran players are sure to be released as well.

After just one game the players return to practice, knowing that one of their chances to get an NFL pay day is gone. This should focus the attention.

Next game – 21 Aug at Tampa Bay. Expect the coaches to go all out to win. Losing becomes a habit and they will want to stop losing. Expect some starters to play almost a half. For rookies, the time to impress is running out.

In the News

From Manchester to Barbados to Arrowhead

Down at Arrowhead the troops arrived to begin OTA's (organised team activities). For those not in the know, the difference between OTA's and training camp is only on the calendar. Although OTA's are officially voluntary, almost everyone turns up in some form or another. The Chief's rookies because they have to convince the coaches they are worth a spot on the roster and the veterans because they have to convince the coaches they are worth a spot on the roster. Simple!

Meanwhile, before football takes over completely, the round-ball experts from Manchester United will be visiting the re-vamped stadium to play the KC Wizards on 25 July. Tickets are from 10 bucks to 200. I suspect the paying public of KC don't realise that in a World Cup year it is very unlikely MU will bring anything like a full squad. In particular, the England World Cup players will be on holiday, no matter how well they do in South Africa. Still, it is a chance to show the KC public what they are missing. Answer? Not a lot.

Back at Arrowhead there are some interesting battles looming for starting positions. In the DB's it seems very unlikely that Number One pick Eric Berry will not get one of the starting safety spots – barring injury of course. You don't draft a top player to sit him on the bench and play special teams. There will be pressure on the others to step up and secure one of the other three starting spots. Suddenly the Chiefs looks solid at this ultra-important position!

Down at my target position, wide receiver, Dexter McCluster seems destined to be a big-time player – or a complete flop. I expect the KC sports writers are drooling over the prospect that he is another Reggie Bush. If he is then it's happy days! Remember, he's a rookie. The running backs look good and solid. With Colin Brown returning from injury there should be real competition in the O-line.

So, where are the problems? Line-backers. Chiefs have too many and they are not all well-versed in the 3-4. Noises are being made to shift Glen Dorsey to nose-tackle. I'm against it. Actually, I'm not a great Dorsey fan full stop. I expect the Chiefs to keep close tabs on any line-backers, well-versed in the 3-4, who may become available – either as un-drafted or released rookies or available veterans.

Also, believe it or not, at QB. This is the year Todd Haley and Co. must see some improvement from Matt Cassel. They passed up on some promising QB's coming out of college. They have banked on Cassel doing his bit. Given a better offensive line and some receivers who can catch the ball and run with it and an improved running game – it's going to be hard to pin losses anywhere else. It's pay-back time for Matt – or it's Adios!

Finally, England finally won a one-day trophy and smashed the Aussies in the process! Looks like the umpires (chiefly that clown Doctrove) got some things wrong to the detriment of Australia, but that's the breaks. England's decision to bowl first was inspired. The old adage that first you think about batting first, then you think again, then you bat clearly didn't apply this time. By putting the Aussie openers under pressure, England were always in the driving seat. It's always good to win, but lets not get carried away. 20-20 is not really cricket as we know it. But, it's always good to win. Can England use Kieswetter and Eoin Morgan in a “real” game? Why not? Time will tell.

Picking the Right Stuff

Hang on to your tomahawk!

As we approach the annual slug-fest that is the NFL draft, the KC Chiefs appear to be sitting pretty with the number five pick.

Would that it were so easy.

For months I've been willing the Chiefs to draft the top line-backer available at number five. None of the the professional scenarios are with me on that one.

Thomas Jones, Casey Wiegmann and Ryan Lilja all arrived on the offensive side of the ball in free agency. This is a departure from usual Chief's tactics and has pleased the fans no end. But, with the offence being strengthened will the folks who are supposed to know (Coach and GM) then go for a defensive player in Round One?

Early in the process it was mooted that Eric Berry – Safety from Tennessee was a sure fire pick for the Chiefs at five. Now, nobody is quite sure. Apparently the draft is deep and some very good players (including safeties) might be still on the board in round two. Chiefs might pass on making a rookie safety a number one pick. With only four linebackers in the top 32 picks it may be that the Chiefs will not go with my choice for that reason alone.

Where else might they go on offense? Tackles? With two in the frame to go in the first few picks there may be none available.

Then again, on defense have the Chiefs given up on the Tackles they have, specifically Glenn Dorsey? If so, and there is quality still on the board when the five pick rolls around the pick may go that way.

All the mock drafts highlight one immutable dilemma.

Do you pick the top player left on your team draft board – or go for the top player at the position you are most in need of? I expect the latter.

Why? Some area are already sown up. Matt Cassell will be the QB in 2010. Scott Pioli has a record of grabbing good QB's in the late rounds. He won't hesitate to do the same this time if the opportunity presents itself. RB's look full with the addition of Jones. O-line has already been strengthened – but youth might tempt Scott at center, guard or tackle. D-line may need improvement, but at what cost? You can't have too many good CB's but the Chiefs look strong here.

That only leaves Wide Receivers. How I would love it if the management grabbed the top receiver at five! Problem is Des Bryant, Oklahoma State is the top mock prospect – but he has personal issues! After losing WR Dwayne Bowe to a bout of “inappropriate activity” and finally getting rid of Larry Johnson, the Chiefs are unlikely to take a flyer on Bryant. Next up is Arrelious Benn from Illinois and they are the only two in the top 32 mock picks. Despite my efforts to upgrade the receivers it looks like real talent is lacking in round one.

My final take. It's most important for the Chiefs not to make a mistake at number five. They may well try to trade out of this high pick. If they have to choose, I expect them to take the top player, whatever the position, at number five. My gut feeling is it will be Berry – but one of the top quality offensive tackles, if available, might just trump him.