Super Bowl 51

Super Bowl 2017 - an upset?

I have been putting it off for as long as I can. Firstly, a bit of history – my Super Bowl picks are notorious for their inaccuracy. I study hard and then come up with the wrong analysis and, inevitably, the wrong winner. Nevertheless, here goes.

Looking at it from a Chiefs perspective, having beaten the Falcons in Georgia this season you might think it's a done deal – Pats to win. Of course, it is not quite that simple. But for the Grace of God go the Chiefs to the Super Bowl where they may well have been favourites over Atlanta. But, as we all know, that didn't happen. And like all teams Atlanta are not the same team as in early December. Neither, of course, are the Patriots – who the Chiefs did not play this year.

The point? We are stuck with analysis. You can of course rely on the bookies. The problem is they are still licking their wounds after taking a pasting on the Donald and Brexit. How about Vegas? The Pats are about 3 point favourites. That seems about right to me.

The Patriots have no obvious weakness, and they have Tom Brady. That's worth about 3 points.

The Falcons may be susceptible to the run and their pass defence is not great. They will have to play an almost perfect game to win.

The Pats do not make mistakes. They protect Brady well and have a serviceable running game. Their short-passing game means it's difficult to get to Brady and disrupt his timing.

The Falcons have an explosive offence. They have multiple weapons and in Julio Jones a real star. They are going to score points – the question is how many and how often. Can they get Brady and Co. off the field? Can they avoid fumbles, etc?

My record is based on defence. I firmly believe that defence wins Super Bowls, but only if it matches up well with the opponents offence.

I'm not sure the Pats match up well.

It's the kiss of death, but I'm taking Atlanta by a touchdown. (apologies to all Falcons fans.)