Another Super Bowl?

 

Chiefs Play-off Chances

What a season. The Tribe sit at 14-1 with only the home game against the Chargers before the play-offs. Likely we will end up 14-2 as the Chargers will want to put one over on the reigning Champs and the Chiefs will rest almost everyone.

Last September, even accounting for the Covid-19 crisis, most fans would have settled for that and bitten your hand off to get it.

However, in the record books it will only say Super Bowl Champions 2020-21 and the virus will not get a mention.

So, how’s it looking? Most days I wake up and thank my lucky stars we won the last Super Bowl. I distinctly remember that during that improbable run I was continually consoling myself with the thought that even if we lost, and we came mighty close in most of the play-off games and the Super Bowl, there was always next season when we will be better. Now next season is now.

Then the Virus put paid to that comforting theory. We did win the big one, but can we do it again?

It’s beginning to look like the odds are against it. Fact is: the Chief’s record flatters to deceive. Sure, they keep winning, but not very convincingly, culminating in the embarrassing win at home versus the Falcons. Me and two of my buddies could have given Atlanta a game and the Chiefs struggled, needing a missed field goal to win.

Injuries are piling up. Big Red has decided to give the starters a week off (in addition to the one they get as the number one seed), St Patrick has begun to look almost human (throwing interceptions, missing open receivers, fumbling the ball), the O-line looks a shadow of its former self, the defense is just about adequate and not really rounding into Super Bowl shape at this late stage.

The verdict is definitely out. It may be that Reid will use the time and the rest provided wisely and when the play-offs roll into KC, courtesy of our number one ranking and the home field advantage really kicks in we will see a rejuvenated Arrowhead with a few thousand screaming fans rock the team to another AFL championship game and another appearance in the big one.

Maybe.

We are thin at RB. Edwards-Helllaire had a bad ankle and may not play at all going forward. Le’veon Bell has an injury, the back ups are probably not good enough to generate any rushing attack to speak of. Mahomes dropping back 50+ times and being chased all the time is not a recipe for success.

An outsider looking in would give the Bills a good chance to beat KC. So too, maybe the Titans who will still be smarting from last season’s debacle.

The irony is that nobody in the NFC has a chance against us. I would love to see the Packers in Super Bowl LV. Revenge for Super Bowl 1 would be very sweet indeed.

There is a lot of football to be played before then, that’s for sure. Wish us luck, we may well need it!

Chiefs Prospects for 2017

Here We Go Again!

Well, here we go again. The roundabout that passes for professional football in Kansas City is about to hit the road again. What are the chances that come next January we will be anticipating a run to the Super Bowl? Or, what about another year of “if only” for the Arrowhead faithful?

2017 follows 2016. (Brilliant insight!)

Lots has happened since that most forgettable night when holding all the cards and with home field advantage the Chiefs stumbled and coughed their way out of the play-offs against the Steelers. Some old wood has been burned. Most notably, both Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Macklin have been unceremoniously dumped. Another draft class had arrived, and with it a new QB – Patrick Mahomes, fresh out of Texas Tech. But, and this is a big but, Alex Smith remains the MAN.

So, how do we progress?

The offence looks better. Tyrek Hill is now installed as a receiving threat from day one – and not just a bit player – hence the departure of Macklin. Chris Conley has another year under his belt and should provide stability along with Albert Wilson – whose stock is always low but always finds a way to get on the field. D'Anthony Thomas rounds out the group. The truth is this bunch will scare no-one and is still a weakness compared to other NFL squads.

Riches are found at tight end. Travis Kelce is teamed with Gavin Escobar (he could be the find of the season!) and Demetrious Harris ( a solid performer). We may see they all on the field at the same time in the three tight-end formation so loved by Andy Reid.

The games is build on the O-line and they should be better. No great upgrades here but no glaring weaknesses either. Can they stay healthy? If the back-ups have to stand up then the season looks a lot dimmer.

Alex Smith is the QB (from last season's report - “As usual, the rock is on Alex Smith's shoulder. He was brilliant in Week One and very ordinary in Week Two. Consequence? We are one and one.”)

It's sameo – sameo. Alex probably knows this is his last season to be the starter. Rookie Mahomes backs him up with Tyler Bray for cover. Will this spur Smith to greatness or burden him with a monkey (or perhaps if Bray plays a donkey) on his back. My take -

Alex has four or five games to achieve a good start before the calls for him to step down are so loud they can be heard all the way to Wroxham. I hope he takes the Chiefs to the heights, but like many fans I think he is approaching his sell by date.

Last year I said, “Running backs should be the strength of the team. Anthony Sherman is a mainstay at fullback. Jamaal Charles is still a class act. Spencer Ware is getting a lot of snaps. Chacandrick West is a capable back-up.”

Today, Sherman is still the fullback. Ware has a season-ending injury. West is serviceable. Rookie back Kareem Hunt may well get the starting job with import CJ Spiller spelling him. An upgrade? From Jamaal Charles? You have to be joking me. One thing is for sure a good running back is the QB's best friend. Whoever is the signal-caller they will need a running game as they can't do much if they are flat on their back. I'm not very confident.

The defence may well have to carry the team. The good news is that they may well do it.

Gone is the Memphis Mauler (aka Dontari Poe). This one is such a classic. When he was a Chief the man was the best thing since sliced bread. Now that he is gone, his replacement, Bernie Logan is according to the press reports a real upgrade at nose tackle. We'll see. LB's Justin Houston and Tabma Hali are back, healthy and ready to wreak havoc. They are spelled by former number one pick Dee Ford and Ramik Wilson (who may well be the starter with Hali to come off the bench).

Chris Jones anchors one end with Allen Bailey on the other side. They are good. Their back-up's are serviceable to good as well.

DBs are a class above the rest of the Division with Peters, Parker, Gaines and Nelson all able to contribute. Eric Berry is Mr KC at safety and Daniel Sorenson is better than he gets credit for.

Special Teams is a trademark and marquee class for the Tribe. They are always better than most of the league.

Time to sum up: if Alex Smith rises to the challenge and stays healthy he may well be leading the team into the play-offs. Most pundits are predicting a winning season. How many? Anywhere from nine to eleven.

My guess – somewhere in between. We win 10 and just make the end-of-season party.

Chiefs Prospects 2016 Season

Chop till you Drop!
I have been tardy.  I usually do my Chiefs analysis and forecast for the season before the season starts.  I've been busy.

Perhaps it is no bad thing.  Two games into the season gives me an opportunity for the scales to fall from the eyes and a more realistic mood to prevail.  Two games in and the tribe are 1-1.  They beat San Diego (a division rival) and lost to the Texans.  The first game saw a great comeback and the second almost no offence at all in a 19-12 defeat.

As usual, the rock is on Alex Smith's shoulder.  He was brilliant in Week One and very ordinary in Week Two.  Consequence?  We are one and one.

What are the Chiefs up to on offence this season.  They brought in Nick Foles to back up Smith.  Chase Daniel was the back up but went in free agency.  Foles is a proven NFL QB with the Eagles.  Hit me with a brick, but I can see a scenario where Alex Smith doesn't perform and Foles is at the helm.  An NFL back up QB is always just one snap away from starting no matter what the coaches say to the media.  Forget what Andy Reid says if he thinks Smith is not doing it he will change to Foles.  They have kept Tyler Bray as third QB.  Someday my dream will come?  He has the size, the arm and is getting the experience.  He may well be the future.

Running backs should be the strength of the team.  Anthony Sherman is a mainstay at fullback.  Jamaal Charles is still a class act.  Spencer Ware is getting a lot of snaps.  Chacandrick West is a capable back-up.  Knile Davis has slipped down the pecking order, but still has a role in kick returns.  The problem is Charles has yet to play.  Ware and West have shared the work and whilst both are capable, Charles has really been missed.  If the running-back-offence starts to click when he does then fine.  If not – big trouble.

The wide receiver corps has been revamped. (About time too!)  Jeremy Macklin leads.  Chris Conley is now a second year receiver.  Tyrek Hill is listed but is really a kick returner.  The rest?  De'Anthony Thomas who has mysteriously been inactive for the first two games, Demarcus Robinson, a rookie and Albert Wilson a 200 pound 5' 9” receiver (very out-of-date in the NFL).  You can still make a case that this group is not going to scare anyone and not going to help Smith very much in his quest to become an elite QB.

How about the O-line.  Lots of folks are very big on this group.  I wish I could join them.
The eight listed linemen have a grand total of 17 years of NFL experience.  That's not a lot.  Eric Fisher is now a very solid tackle.  He is moving forward from the burden of being a Number 1 pick in the draft.  The Chiefs apparently love Mitchell Schwartz who was a free agent signing.  The Canuck Duvernay-Tardiff is flavour of the month.  Unfortunately, in game two Parker (rookie starter) and Tardiff were injured and inactive.  The Texans pass rush had a field day.  When they are all healthy we'll see.  I'm not convinced that this is their year.  Maybe in 2017-18 but not today.

Turning to the defence which, as everyone with a brain cell knows, is what wins titles and Super Bowls.  What was a strength is now just about average.  Justin Houston is injured and will not return for some time.  Tamba Hali is just about past his sell by date.  The corners look just about Ok with Marcus Peters a stand-out.  The D-line should be good but has struggled to create any pass rush.  On a one to ten grading system they get about a 5.5.  This will not be good enough for the play-offs and may not even be good enough to get them there in the first place.
Special teams are very good.  Santos kicks as good as most.  Tyrek Hill may get you some touchdowns on punts and kick-offs.

The coaching is what it is.  There is no pressure real on Andy Reid.  They are stable.  They have good, experienced and capable coaches on the staff.  They need to earn their money now.  Anyone can coach an exceptionally good team.  Can they make winners out of some mostly average talent?  We'll see.

Crazy NFL

Any Given Sunday?

With the Chiefs poised to miss out on the play-offs this season (barring a miracle of monumental proportions) it's time to take stock.

Most people know that I am no real fan of soccer. Conversely, I'm a big NFL fan – mostly of the Chiefs, but I will religiously watch the play-offs no matter who's in and who's out.

My big gripe with soccer football is the basic unfairness of the game.

Good play often gets no reward and minor mistakes can be punished far more than is warranted. When it comes to officiating, things are even worse. One man, the referee, attempts to police a large field with 22 people trying to kick a ball (and sometimes each other). In some respects it is a minor miracle that the ref gets some things correct at all. Take Saturday's Derby v Norwich City game. I said at the time that the ref had a good game. Some of the decisions he made seemed wrong at first glance but, in replay he was absolutely correct. My only gripe was about the “non-decisions” - the ones where fouls that should have been given weren't – the free kicks wrongly awarded – that sort of stuff. So, when the game is so close and goals so ridiculously difficult to score every small error by the ref is multiplied and affects the game much more that it should. Soccer is just too haphazard for me. One team can clearly play better, create more scoring chances, defend well, run rings around the opposition and still lose because the ref makes a big mistake. Not good enough.

Wait a minute! Looking over the NFL results from last week, I was summarily hoisted on my own petard!

I always do the prediction game in the KC Star – for a bit of fun. Last week I thought I had a few bankers. Firstly I had the Eagles to beat the Redskins. Score: Eagles 24 – Redskins 27. I had the 49ers to whomp on the Chargers at home. Result: Chargers 38 – San Fran 35. Everyone had the Packers to slaughter the hapless Tampa Bay Bucks. Result: Pack 20 – Bucks 3 (GB should have won this easily whilst resting their starters). Lions 20 – Bears 14 – me and my gran should be able to beat the Bears. Detroit are supposed to be challenging for a Super Bowl berth. The NY Giants beat the St Louis Rams 37 – 27. The Panthers beat the Browns! And, on Monday night the Bungles beat the Broncos. Finally, the Raiders beat the Bills 26 – 24. (Even though the Old Enemy beat the Chiefs – which will probably cost the boys in red a play-off spot – they are without a doubt the worst team in the league!)

What's going on?

All my injunctions about “Any Given Sunday” seem to be happening at once. And it is just the very small things that are costing teams bit-time.

Take the Chiefs on Sunday. Some very tough calls by the officials (Charles fumble – a crazy spot short of the first down, an absolutely set-in-stone pass interference call in favour of Albert Wilson that the officials missed, missed and missed again, etc.) meant that the game was decided not by the players but by the officials.

Just what I gripe about regarding association football.

Maybe I need a rethink?

Chiefs Prospects 2012

The Draft Approaches and Free Agency is open.

Oh, what could have been. Strangely, the Chiefs remainded in the AFC West race for a long time despite the crippling injuries that blighted the 2011 season. This may be a reflection of the weakness in the AFC West with the Broncos (with no real QB) slipping into the playoffs and getting murdered.

It is so easy to blame the Chiefs' demise on the injuries in key positions, but good teams have depth and the Chiefs were not a good team in 2011 – their lack of depth, particularly at the crucial skill position, was there for all to see.

We move on.

Because the West is so poor, the Chiefs may start as favourites this season despite some woeful games last year.

Why? Everyone else may be worse – assuming Payton Manning doesn't sign for Denver!

Free Agency opens soon, so it's a good time for a review of each position.

Offence

QB

Got to start here as so the QB goes, so goes the Chiefs. We have Matt Cassell and Ricky Stanzl under contract. Kyle Orton did a passable job at the last minute last season. We have to assume that Cassell will still start, poor old Tyler Palko will disappear and Stanzl will get a shot at the back-up. Orton will not be resigned. Personally I think Cassell is in the Last Chance Saloon and if a top QB was available he could go.

Options? Go for a QB in the draft at number 11? Not likely. Sign a free agent back-up to challenge for Cassell's job? I hope so. Clearly we need a battle to become the starter from all the incumbents and any joiners – otherwise there isn't much point of having a training camp. For the record, Cassell has never convinced me he is a tier-two QB – and that's all we need.

RB

Lost Charles almost before the season started and never recovered. There is no reliable back-up – assuming Charles returns to action and is as productive as he has been. I think this is a big “if”! There is a long tradition of low draft picks and even undrafted rookies making a bit impact in the NFL. The Chiefs could use some of that!! But Chiefs will probably not “waste” a round one or two pick on a running back. Fullback is an area of concern. Free agency?

TE

Tony Moeaki. That's it. When he went down (and he has a long and well-documented history of injury) the Chiefs had no real back-up. The Chiefs offense, along with almost every other team in the NFL, now relies on a pass-catching tight end who can also block. Remember Tony Gonzales? I was hoping he might win a Super Bowl with Atlanta but not that seems unlikely. Shame for a future Hall-of-Famer. When will we see his like again?

WR

I called for a number one pick to be a wide reciever last year and was rewarded with Jonathan Baldwin. He promptly and mysteriously injured himself and didn't see action until about game six. He may well, we hope, have a break out season. We still need depth at this critical position. Free agency may be the answer. I see Colston of New Orleans is available. Absolute magic!!

OL

With Casey Wiegmann retiring it looks like his replacement is already on board in the person of Rodney Hudson. If he is as good as the retiree then the Chiefs are set at this position for the next decade. Albert and Asamoah look like sure starters but again there is little depth. I would not be surprised to see the Chiefs Number One pick be a offensive lineman.

Defence

Safety

Eric Berry should be back and healthy. But, anyone coming off a complete season-ending injury may not ever be as good again. That's football. Kendrick Lewis looks like the other starter with some depth at this position as well.

CB

One of the Brandons – either Flowers or Carr is almost sure to go in free agency. We have Areanas as back-up. Corner backs do not grow on trees. Chiefs to strengthen through the draft with free agency a possibility.

LB

The lack of depth and quality scares me. After Hali and Johnson there are lots of possibles and not too may certains. Strangely, the Chiefs' heirarchy seems very upbeat about this position. I wish I could join them.

DL

After Dorsey and Tyson Jackson this group looks solid but unspectacular. There is no nose tackle with Gregg almost certain to retire and Gilberry and Gordon in free agency. Lost of activity predicted in both the draft and free agency or we are in big trouble.

Kickers

There is none better than Colquitt and Succop usually performs well. No point in wasting a draft choice as you are only as good as your last miss and field goal kickers are always available. Wouldn't be surprised to see an undrafted rookie providing the competition in training camp.

Coaches

I was surprised at Todd Haley's dismissal. The Chiefs rarely do things that way. Rumour is he lost the dressing room big time. Romeo Crennel has experience and some good coaches around him. Apparently the players like him. It's a precarious occupation.

My prediction for 2012: Chiefs to improve to 10-6 or 11-5, and will win the AFC West and promptly depart in the first round of the playoffs.

Any Given Sunday

Chiefs inconsistent or just normal?

As the Raiders beat the Chargers to move to 5 and 4 the Chiefs wait in the wings to pick up the pieces and get a grip on the AFC West. Will it happen?

Who knows?

What is certain is that nothing is certain. That's for sure.

Why? Because the old any give Sunday has never been so true as it is today. Just look at the San Diego – Raiders game. Experts called it a San Diego opportunity, but the Raiders had different ideas. Still, the game was close and Carson Palmer performed well after the mauling the Chiefs dished out to him.

Except for a few big plays the game was a toss-up.

The Chiefs host a much improved Denver team this week and desperately need a win to keep up with Oakland. Have they any reason for optimism? Not really.

Last time out they were embarrassed by a Miami team without a win (any given Sunday).

Their home form has been erratic to say the least.

If you were a bookmaker you'd bet on Denver, and this is not just getting down on the home boys, but a measure of how poorly the Chiefs are look at the half-way stage.

The offence cannot really generate a running game and therefore Matt Cassell cannot generate a passing game. QED, the Chiefs are going to struggle unless they can untrack some kind of rushing game. Can they do it? Looks problematical.

Tebow dishes out something different and the Chiefs look vulnerable to a running game.

The defence will have to have a big game, with interceptions as well as hurries and fumble recoveries.

Prediction time: hate to say it but Denver may well win.

Re-group time for the Reds – it might be next year before we really have a team.

Doomed

As Frazier from Dad's Army Would Say, “We're Doomed”

My assessment of the 2011 Chiefs chances focussed on the QB, the offence in general and the defense's ability to chip in.

They have all gone to hell in an handcart.

Two demoralizing losses to what are perceived as average teams have highlighted the inadequacies in both the performances and the planning.

Remember: I commended the Chiefs for drafting a top receiver. He has not been seen so far in somewhat suspicious circumstances. Baldwin appear to be Baldlost.

Remember: I predicted that as Matt Cassell goes, so go the Chiefs. He has only gone to the toilet so far and has found it as difficult finding an empty cubicle as finding an open receiver.

Remember: I reminded all that if you can run the football you can win a lot of games. The Chiefs promptly lost Jamal Charles to an ever-lengthening injury list and have no real replacement in line.

Remember: I predicted that with an adequate defence a cracker-jack offense could make up the difference. 80 odd points have been conceded in two games.

Is the season over?

Yes, probably.

With San Diego coming up on Sunday, the prospect of 0-3 looms large.

It would take a miracle to win out on the coast.

If a week's a long time in politics – it must seem an eternity to the Chief's players, coach and management as they try to prepare for what could be a ritual slaughter.

Has Todd Haley had it?

Maybe, but unlikely. He shoulders some of the blame, but the real tragedy is that the steady progression plan ( ala Pioli) appears shot.

It's going to be a long season.

Hope Springs Eternal for Chiefs

Play offs or Goof Offs

It's now more than 40 years since the Chiefs Super Bowl win.

Could this be time to do it again? Is there ever a bad time!!

Reality check – The tribe won last year's AFL west title mostly because everyone else was worst than they were. Tough – but true. They finished 10-6 (coming off a 4-12 season) and lost their first play-off game since pigs stopped flying. Not exactly cause for organising a premature Super Bowl party!

But, things are looking up.

It appears the management have a plan and are sticking to it.

The Chiefs will run the ball and that's generally how you win football games. They drafted a top receiver in the first round and this will finally give Matt Cassel some weapons on offence. The defence look ok and this is the worry.

With an average offence and cracker-jack defence you can win a Super Bowl. The other way around and you'd have to get lucky.

So, as this year's defence goes, so go the Chiefs chances of a deep run into the play-offs of a shot at the big one.

How are they shaping up?

Coaches are expecting a second and third year burst from many players, particularly on defence. The secondary looks strong – very strong at the corners and safety. This is essential. The D-line is less secure and will have to play big to bring results. Chiefs have moved to strengthen the line in free agency. Good move.

Line backers are a worry. Almost to a man they are still learning the 3-4 and how they improve this season will probably decide how the Chiefs progress.

Then we have QB. This is the season for Matt Cassel to join the the premier league of quarterbacks. If he does then the Tomahawkers are sitting pretty – if not the tomahawks may be out for his scalp!

In the end, as Cassel goes, so goes the Chiefs!

Chiefs EOS report

Very good - in parts

I was amazed to read the KC Star's evaluation of the Chiefs performance in the play-off game against Baltimore. I know we got beat by a healthy margin, but overall I thought the result flattered the Ravens and did not reflect the Chiefs contribution to the game.

I watched the first part live and after Charles had busted a long run against a seemingly impregnable Ravens defence to give the Chiefs a 7-3 lead I was very pleased. We could run the ball. They were not too good in the Red Zone.

Then things went wrong. Fumbles. Interceptions. We lost.

However, it's a game of inches. Too often the Chiefs missed what should have been a first down with a poor play call or execution. With errors, they forced themselves into obvious passing situations and away from their running game. The defence played well for two downs. Third down looked too easy for Baltimore and they converted too many of them too easily.

EOS report – offence

QB Matt Cassell is still not a shoe-in to be the Chiefs long-term QB. He had a good season operating behind the league's leading running attack. It's not clear if he's capable of leading a team when plan one fails. Juries out.

RB Jamal Charles is (barring injuries) in the team forever. A diamond.

O-line – a solid unit that can both run block and pass block. Can still be strengthened.

Receivers – one area the Chiefs are lacking. Bowe was good, until he came up against a quality defence that was able to double-team him all day. He needs help. I expect the Chiefs to focus on this area in free-agency and draft choices.

EOS report – defence

Three down men are not dominant enough either in stopping the run or getting pressure. Changes needed. I'd draft the top monster nose tackle available.

LB's are not good enough. Baltimore exposed them ruthlessly.

Secondary is the bright spot. We need a top safety. Berry was very good for a rookie and will only get better with help.

Special teams – very good throughout the season.

Overall the Chiefs can look forward with some optimism. Next year's schedule is tougher. This is good, for only against better teams can you measure progress.

Worryingly, the Chiefs won only 2 games against division opponents. This must be addressed. At five and one in the division KC would have been 13-3 in the regular season and one of the top play-off seeds. That's the goal for next season.

Hope the “sophomore jinx” doesn't hit!

Winning isn't everything - it's the only thing!

Chiefs must get offence untracked soon!!

Chiefs 3-0 – and ugly. And probably lucky as well. Defence excellent – special teams awesome – offence almost non-existent.

Rookie tight-end Tony Moeaki is the leading receiver. Running game is very good to excellent.

So, where's the problem?

Simple – one word (actually two) QB. Unless the Chiefs can get the passing game untracked, their good start will be for nought! You can't win in the NFL unless you can pass the football - unless you are the Baltimore Ravens and your QB is Trent Dilfer.

Where do we go from here?

It's unpopular, but it's probably more to due with the coaches than the players. Chiefs QB, Matt Cassell, is not making plays – that's for sure. But, what plays are being sent in? Is he failing to execute, or is he just not getting the right calls from the side-lines? Reading his comments on the Chiefs web site you'd be excused for thinking he's putting up all-pro numbers. He's all smiles and all enthusiastic. What he needs now is a good game with big numbers.

So, after all the gloom the Chiefs run into the Colts and actually do quite well, but they lose. Why? See above. With the defence making Manning look almost ordinary and the running game operating well it only took some spark from Cassell and a famous victory would have been there for the taking.

So, what went wrong? Cassell. Cassell. Cassell. Although he didn't get much help from his receivers (surely they can't keep dropping easy catches forever, can they?), the truth is commentators are already questioning his ability to be an NFL quarterback. The Brodie Croyle mob will be unpacking their knives and sharpening them in the garage soon.

Cassell has a few more chances – but only a few – starting today at Houston. If the rest of the team fires as it has been and he can't move the offence, then his time is running out faster than a pig with diarrhoea!

In the News

From Manchester to Barbados to Arrowhead

Down at Arrowhead the troops arrived to begin OTA's (organised team activities). For those not in the know, the difference between OTA's and training camp is only on the calendar. Although OTA's are officially voluntary, almost everyone turns up in some form or another. The Chief's rookies because they have to convince the coaches they are worth a spot on the roster and the veterans because they have to convince the coaches they are worth a spot on the roster. Simple!

Meanwhile, before football takes over completely, the round-ball experts from Manchester United will be visiting the re-vamped stadium to play the KC Wizards on 25 July. Tickets are from 10 bucks to 200. I suspect the paying public of KC don't realise that in a World Cup year it is very unlikely MU will bring anything like a full squad. In particular, the England World Cup players will be on holiday, no matter how well they do in South Africa. Still, it is a chance to show the KC public what they are missing. Answer? Not a lot.

Back at Arrowhead there are some interesting battles looming for starting positions. In the DB's it seems very unlikely that Number One pick Eric Berry will not get one of the starting safety spots – barring injury of course. You don't draft a top player to sit him on the bench and play special teams. There will be pressure on the others to step up and secure one of the other three starting spots. Suddenly the Chiefs looks solid at this ultra-important position!

Down at my target position, wide receiver, Dexter McCluster seems destined to be a big-time player – or a complete flop. I expect the KC sports writers are drooling over the prospect that he is another Reggie Bush. If he is then it's happy days! Remember, he's a rookie. The running backs look good and solid. With Colin Brown returning from injury there should be real competition in the O-line.

So, where are the problems? Line-backers. Chiefs have too many and they are not all well-versed in the 3-4. Noises are being made to shift Glen Dorsey to nose-tackle. I'm against it. Actually, I'm not a great Dorsey fan full stop. I expect the Chiefs to keep close tabs on any line-backers, well-versed in the 3-4, who may become available – either as un-drafted or released rookies or available veterans.

Also, believe it or not, at QB. This is the year Todd Haley and Co. must see some improvement from Matt Cassel. They passed up on some promising QB's coming out of college. They have banked on Cassel doing his bit. Given a better offensive line and some receivers who can catch the ball and run with it and an improved running game – it's going to be hard to pin losses anywhere else. It's pay-back time for Matt – or it's Adios!

Finally, England finally won a one-day trophy and smashed the Aussies in the process! Looks like the umpires (chiefly that clown Doctrove) got some things wrong to the detriment of Australia, but that's the breaks. England's decision to bowl first was inspired. The old adage that first you think about batting first, then you think again, then you bat clearly didn't apply this time. By putting the Aussie openers under pressure, England were always in the driving seat. It's always good to win, but lets not get carried away. 20-20 is not really cricket as we know it. But, it's always good to win. Can England use Kieswetter and Eoin Morgan in a “real” game? Why not? Time will tell.

Picking the Right Stuff

Hang on to your tomahawk!

As we approach the annual slug-fest that is the NFL draft, the KC Chiefs appear to be sitting pretty with the number five pick.

Would that it were so easy.

For months I've been willing the Chiefs to draft the top line-backer available at number five. None of the the professional scenarios are with me on that one.

Thomas Jones, Casey Wiegmann and Ryan Lilja all arrived on the offensive side of the ball in free agency. This is a departure from usual Chief's tactics and has pleased the fans no end. But, with the offence being strengthened will the folks who are supposed to know (Coach and GM) then go for a defensive player in Round One?

Early in the process it was mooted that Eric Berry – Safety from Tennessee was a sure fire pick for the Chiefs at five. Now, nobody is quite sure. Apparently the draft is deep and some very good players (including safeties) might be still on the board in round two. Chiefs might pass on making a rookie safety a number one pick. With only four linebackers in the top 32 picks it may be that the Chiefs will not go with my choice for that reason alone.

Where else might they go on offense? Tackles? With two in the frame to go in the first few picks there may be none available.

Then again, on defense have the Chiefs given up on the Tackles they have, specifically Glenn Dorsey? If so, and there is quality still on the board when the five pick rolls around the pick may go that way.

All the mock drafts highlight one immutable dilemma.

Do you pick the top player left on your team draft board – or go for the top player at the position you are most in need of? I expect the latter.

Why? Some area are already sown up. Matt Cassell will be the QB in 2010. Scott Pioli has a record of grabbing good QB's in the late rounds. He won't hesitate to do the same this time if the opportunity presents itself. RB's look full with the addition of Jones. O-line has already been strengthened – but youth might tempt Scott at center, guard or tackle. D-line may need improvement, but at what cost? You can't have too many good CB's but the Chiefs look strong here.

That only leaves Wide Receivers. How I would love it if the management grabbed the top receiver at five! Problem is Des Bryant, Oklahoma State is the top mock prospect – but he has personal issues! After losing WR Dwayne Bowe to a bout of “inappropriate activity” and finally getting rid of Larry Johnson, the Chiefs are unlikely to take a flyer on Bryant. Next up is Arrelious Benn from Illinois and they are the only two in the top 32 mock picks. Despite my efforts to upgrade the receivers it looks like real talent is lacking in round one.

My final take. It's most important for the Chiefs not to make a mistake at number five. They may well try to trade out of this high pick. If they have to choose, I expect them to take the top player, whatever the position, at number five. My gut feeling is it will be Berry – but one of the top quality offensive tackles, if available, might just trump him.

Super Bowl or Toilet Bowl

Before I stick my neck out and tell you who will win this year's Super Bowl, a short trip down memory lane is in order.

The greatest betting coup in modern times was not, as is usually thought, some Irish punters gamely trying to nobble some nag at Punchestown; but, instead, my idiotic and grotesque offer of the Chiefs and 16 points versus the Vikings for Super Bowl IV in 1970. I know, because I was in Norway at the time and the queue outside my door was so long and so unruly the MP's had to be called in to keep order.

Even though it was foolhardy, I really did think the Chiefs would win. The rest is history. Except it's been 40 years and we've not been very close since!

I think it was the last time we were in the play-offs – we faced Peyton Manning and the Colts at Arrowhead about 3-4 years ago. And, I had it all figured out.

Indianapolis were running the same offence then as they bring to Super Bowl 44. Manning gets to the line of scrimmage, surveys the defence, audibles the play and they kick butt. My mistake at that time was in gleefully predicting that playing away in KC none of that nonsense was going to be in the frame.

It was so logical to me. The “chop-till-you-drop” brigade would make so much noise that the Indy offence would just not be able to function. Chiefs would win. Easy.

Needless to say my previous form in predicting a Chiefs Super Bowl win against all the odds counted for nought. My plan looked good on paper, but in reality it was pants. Manning did whatever he felt like and the Chiefs were murdered.

Of course, things move on and the Colts are not the same team. Their defence is not as good. The offence lacks a power runner. They don't dominate possession. They have some rookies that they rely on to make big plays.

Nevertheless, they will win, and win big.

Why?

Simple. Payton Manning.

It really wouldn't surprise me if he could walk on water.

The only really surprising and almost non-existent possibility for a New Orleans victory would be if he had a real stinker. Interceptions – incomplete passes – sacks – fumbles. He may well do any or all of the above, but it won't matter because he will still win. That's what he does.

It's good to see Nawlins in the big show. I'd like to think they have a chance. They do. The same chance Wild Bill had when he was dealt aces and eights.

Tenebrae factae sunt

Oh, woe is me!!

From bad to worse. That's the Chiefs season so far, and, perhaps, for the foreseeable future.

Grabbing at some fragile straws (mostly last week's triumph at Washington), I predicted them to beat San Diego at Arrowhead last week. Result: worse than bad.

The loss was hard enough to take. The backwards progression was even more difficult to digest.

Over to coach Todd Haley:

“I’m the head coach of the team and I’m running the offense,” Haley said. “We have to be better than that. We have to be better at protecting. We have to be better at run blocking. We have to be better at catching the ball. We can’t tip the ball to them and we have to be better at quarterback. That’s the bottom line.”

In other words, the Chiefs need to get better at just about everything.

This season is rapidly becoming over even before it got started for the Chiefs. Just look at Coach Haley's comments in detail.

Better at protecting: the Chiefs brought in Matt Cassel in order to provide a solid quarterback around whom we could build an offense. This just isn't working.

Better at run blocking: high hopes were placed on a revamped offensive line who, in concert with All-Pro back Larry Johnson (who is in the news with vaguely disguised dissatisfaction with the coaching staff), could take the pressure of Cassell and provide some kind of ball possession. This has been less than pie in the sky – more like pearls before swine.

Better at catching the ball: Coach Haley seems unable to either provide receivers or design plays which would give Cassell some kind of confidence. They are a fairly nondescript unit – excepting Dwayne Bowe. They just don't look like an NFL receiver corps.

Better at quarterback: it's easy to throw the blame at Cassell, but that's facile. He preformed quite well behind a fine line in New England. Now, he must learn to perform well behind something less than mediocre. The war is, as usual, won in the trenches.

Better at everything: over to you again Coach. The coaches are the factor you have not mentioned.

Fans were expecting a rebuilding kind of season. They were also expecting some kind of progress.

We're still waiting and time is running out. Last week's win at hopeless Washington is looking like the only one this season. Coach Haley better win some soon – or his reign will be short.

Tenebrae factae sunt

A Tough Start

NFL begins!

Looking forward to Sunday evening. It's the start of the NFL season and all Chiefs fans are agreed that it can't be as bad as last season. Or could it?

Away at the Baltimore Ravens is not really the game of choice. The Ravens are a truly daunting prospect for the season opener. On the back of an all-conquering defence, Baltimore have had real success both in the regular and post season of late. To that they have added a good offence with second year QB, Joe Flacco, set to build on what was an exceptional rookie year.

In reply, the Chiefs are rebuilding with a new head coach, a new GM, a new defensive system, a new QB and a new-look stadium. Not exactly the ingredients for a huge slice of optimism pie.

Matt Cassell may be the franchise QB we've all been waiting for, but he got smacked around in the pre-season and I predict the coach will not risk him against Baltimore's defence. Certainly he won't start. He may play some. Last year's signal-caller Brodie Croyle will probably get the nod – for all the good it will do him. Tyler Thigpen will play in certain situations and run a bit.

A lot will depend on the rest of the offence. Can they run the ball at all? Not likely. Can they at least keep possession and not fumble or give up interceptions? Not likely.

What about the defence? Can they stop a good Baltimore running game? Possible, but not very likely.

All things point to a long afternoon for the tribe. If they can keep it close and lose by only 10 or less, I suspect the coach will be pleased. So should the fans.

All Sorts of Noises

An enigma wrapped up in an mystery.

From the Chiefs: lots of talk and not a lot of action.

The real news has been the apparent change of emphasis, best illustrated by the treatment of Brian Waters, Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzales.

Chiefs legend Gonzales made no secret he wanted a shot at some sort of play-off glory before he retires. By trading him to Atlanta, the Chiefs were happy to oblige. Actually, what they did was reward him for a Hall of Fame career and, knowing that his best years were behind him, avoided the inevitable and embarrassing slide into mediocrity and a possible media career.

The best wishes of all Chiefs fans go with him.

Waters and Johnson are different matters.

Brian seems to be unhappy, perhaps with his contract – perhaps with the team – perhaps with the new coach and GM. Who knows? In return the management have done exactly the right thing – draft some possible replacements, sign some free agents (without breaking the bank!) and keep their mouth shut.

Time will tell if they can re-invigorate what is a great career and get Waters to let the water flow under the bridge. My prediction: Waters will be a Chief on opening day or he will be traded for a big-time player. Either way – Chiefs win.

Johnson is a problem wrapped up in an enigma folded into a multi-coloured paper fan. What his problem is, who knows? He will be more comfortable and productive in a pro-set offence. He can repeat a 1000 yard rushing season. Will he blend in with the new management and QB? It's anyone's guess.

One thing is for sure – he won't be traded. First, no-one really wants him and second – the Chiefs need his production at RB – even if they have to put up with some antics and his lack of skill and effort in blocking for his QB.

How the Chiefs deal with Brian and Larry will go a long way towards deciding if they can improve on last season's dismal showing.

Sports Combine - February 2009

A round up of current issues.

Kansas City Chiefs

With a new coach and GM it's all down to the draft for the Chiefs this season. It is surprising how easy it is to go from 2-14 to 10-6. Hope springs eternal. With a proven, but untried at this level, GM in Scott Pioli and rookie head coach in Todd Haley, the Chiefs enter new territory. An assessment will be made after the draft. Even though it is supposed to be a “thin” year for QB's I expect the Chiefs to take one in the first five rounds; for, without some production and leadership from the QB position KC is going to suffer no matter what else they do. The Chiefs faithful are in for an interesting six months.

England Cricket Tour of the West Indies

You have to be a real optimist to gather much excitement or optimism from the England performances in the WI so far. Strangely marmalised in the First Test, crazily being party to a two over test match at the Viv Richards Stadium, and then missing a golden opportunity to square the series at the ACG does not fill one with a large cup of optimism coffee sweetened with sun-kissed horizons.

It's a mess. A big mess.

The ECB have really got to hold up their hand and admit that they have made some immaculate, spectacular boners in the last few months.

First, Sir Alan Stanford is probably going to jail for fraud. The ECB idiots has only recently pledged (or mortgaged if you prefer) the future of English cricket to this wide boy whose only claim to fame so far has been being photographed groping the English WAGS.

Now Freddie Flintoff has succumbed to yet another injury with the Ashes on the horizon. Yet the ECB have sanctioned releasing the contracted players so they can cash in on the mega-bucks of the IPL.

Nasser Hussein and Mike Atherton (both ex-England captains) consider this madness. The ECB should have had the guts to tell the contracted players they can either forego the wonga of the England contact, or they can go to India and take the risk of losing their guaranteed income.

Perhaps the ECB now stands for Elastically Contracting Balls?

Our only hope: the Aussies seem to be having some uncharacteristically English-like problems of their own.

NCFC

As the Canaries slip deeper and deeper into Relegation Quagmire (that's on the A11, just south of the Thickthorn Roundabout) and contemplate life in what would be the old Division Three, there is only one positive sign on the horizon. St Delia and Dippy Doncaster may be about to take a big bite from the We've Run Out of Ideas Since Our Last Ditch Plan to Smokescreen the Fans (and save loads of money) With the Brian Gunn Appointment Burger and run up the surrender flag.

The further NCFC fall the louder the clamour for the board to shoulder most of the blame will be. Gunny is a Norwich City legend. Delia ain't. Unless they win two of the next three games, expect the clamour to reach a howl – and a shrill one at that.

Don't go down that road!

Finally. A win, and even better, a win over the Raiders. Praise be the Lord!

Already (and very unfortunately) the KC media have started overplaying their hand – like the poker player who has just drawn a card to the inside of a straight, the pundits are talking up a Chiefs revival led by Tyler Thigpen.

This is a distraction and we've been here before. Last year it was Brodie Croyle who would lead the tribe of the chosen people to the promised land. After his season-ending injury it was anyone who could stand up and throw the ball. Now it's Tyler.

This has got to stop.

If not, we go to the next training camp with a QB controversy. Tyler or Brodie. The scenario is well-known and well-scripted. These two battle it out for the starting job – distracting the team and the coaches from the real business of winning football matches. You end up with a starter who is always looking over his shoulder. There are examples of how disastrous this is and you don't have far to go. Just look at the Bears and the Bills. Both teams decided to swap horses in a fast-flowing stream this week and got so wet they nearly sank out of sight. The Chiefs must not go down that road.

The management must get smart. Draft a high-profile QB who will start next season. Decide to keep either Tyler or Brodie as backup. Get a franchise QB who will lead the team for the next decade. That is the only way.

Just look at the QB's taken this year. Joe Flacco is doing very well thank you in Baltimore. True, he has a good team to work with; but for a QB taken relatively low in the draft, he is making all the right moves. Over in Atlanta Matt Ryan is leading a poor team steeped in soul-destroying self doubt by the Vick saga to a play-off berth. And, according to the experts this was a poor year for QBs. The brave choice is to take the top QB in the draft – particularly as the Chiefs are likely to be picking in the 3,4,5 slot again.

In the Tyler Thigpen hype we are suffering from at the moment, it is forgotten that last April the Chiefs could have drafted either Ryan or Flacco. Certainly, they could have had Flacco easily He was taken 18^th when the Chiefs had already had two picks. To get Ryan, taken at three, might have involved a trade, but it could have been done.

Next year looks a good one for QBs. Pundits are listing two in the top three picks, Bradford of Oklahoma and Stafford of Georgia – one of whom will probably be available when the Chief's turn comes.

The Chiefs must get off the fence and grab one. Fans are rightly getting fed up with the “build through the draft” scenario. This only works if you truly build in all positions. It's time to take a risk. Pay the big bucks. Go for broke. Grab the best QB that fits and give him the team.

If not, five years of mediocrity is almost ensured.

Banged up and barely standing

I got to watch most of last week's KC Chiefs game. This was surprising in itself as the season is going so poorly I was amazed they made it to the Sky coverage. It was the alternative game, yet it did, at least, give me an opportunity to have a look at the problems for my self. When you're one and eight there are no shortage of problems to look at.

Injuries are killing us. Of course, injuries are a part of the game and every team suffers, but the Chiefs seem to have suffered more than most. They signed some guys off the street last week and they played on Sunday. It doesn't get much worse than that!

The QB situation has been a pleasant surprise. Tyler Thigpen, after a disastrous debut, has played well – actually very well! Some credit must go to the coaches who have given him the kind of game plan he is comfortable with, but some credit must go to him. He has not thrown an interception for a long time. That's a good enough record for where the Chiefs are now. I still expect to see the Chiefs go for a quality QB in the draft. Thigpen would make an ideal Number Two. My prediction: the next time Brodie Croyle gets hurt – he's history.

Running backs have been injured almost as much as QB's. LJ (Larry Johnson) is back this week and none too soon. Chiefs are lightweight at this position and must address this during the draft.

The receiving corps looks good. New guy (off the street) Mark Bradley looks a real find and a nice complement to Dwayne Bowe. Tony Gonzales is having a pro-bowl season – despite having his wish to be traded to a contender turned down – a real professional.

The O-line is looking just about adequate. New boy, Branden Albert, is doing well at tackle. The rest of the boys are in danger of becoming a “no-name” line. They just don't stand out. I expect the Chiefs to draft here again.

Even considering injuries – the defence is poor. Glenn Dorsey was the number four pick in the draft and from what I saw on Sunday he was over-rated. About the best you can say is he did “Ok”. Run defence is patchy. Pass defence is poor – mostly because the pass rush is non-existent. Linebackers are invisible. Secondary is so beat up it's hard to judge their progress.

Let the Chief's website put it into perspective:

As of Tuesday and over the first 10 weeks of the season, the team had already had 70 players on their active roster of 53 players. Of that group, 63 have stepped on the playing field and played in at least one of the nine games so far this year. Throw in quarterbacks Ingle Martin and Quinn Gray who have been active backup quarterbacks but did not play, and that’s 65 of the 70.

This week the Chiefs are talking up their chances against the Saints on Sunday. It's a home game. The team is definitely getting better. LJ is back and should provide some running game. Everyone has had a week to recover. I'm waiting to be convinced.

Chiefs might be better to win the last two and go 3 and 13. Use the draft. That's supposed to be the plan.

Any Given Sunday

Chiefs pound Broncos

Avid readers waiting for me to comment on the “progress” of the K.C. Chiefs have been sorely disappointed so far this season.

Not surprising really after starting the season with three embarrassing defeats there was not much to write about. The manner of the defeats promised that a long and unfruitful season was likely to ensue.

The coaches and the management had already prepared the fans by “announcing” that this was a rebuilding year and a very much “a work in progress”. But, they didn't prepare the fans to be embarrassed or embittered. So after a respectable showing against New England the Chiefs sank without a trace against Oakland and Atlanta to move to 0-3. Carelessly they managed to lose a bunch of quarterbacks in the process. Heir apparent Brodie Croyle proved too fragile and was injured in game one. He may be back – but when is anyone's guess. Damon Huard started game two, got hurt, got his “head wrong” and refused to get back in the game – leaving rookie Tyler Thigpen to take the rap. Thigpen's reward? He got to start game three and was soon shown to be alarmingly frail and clearly not up to the job.

For game four, against the rampant Denver Broncos, it was back to Huard – with no real alternative. Denver were 3-0 and looking like sure-fire play-off contenders. The Chiefs had hit rock bottom and doubts were being expressed by the local media about Head Coach Herm Edwards' future prospects for employment Would the media and fans support him through an 0-16 season? Or, would his head have to roll to restore some credibility to the organisation?

In the event, neither scenario was needed.

The Chiefs discovered that Denver could neither run the ball or stop their opponents from doing so. They say stats don't lie and Denver were giving up shed-loads of yardage and first downs. Only their high-powered offence was prospering. Still, the supposedly infallible pundits on NFL Game Day were all in agreement – the Chiefs had no chance.

On game day the Chiefs gave the ball to running back Larry Johnson and he piled up nearly 200 yards. The defence, for once playing with the lead instead of catch-up, forced fumbles and intercepted passes. Special teams provided some field goals and respectable field position. In short, everything that had been going all wrong suddenly went all right.

From the Chiefs website:And D.J.L.J. was dancing in September thanks to his 198 yards rushing. Combined with a defensive effort that forced four turnovers and allowed the Denver offence just a single touchdown, the long nasty 12-game losing streak of the Chiefs came to an end.

The old adage, any given Sunday was proved right again.

Will the Chiefs go on to make the playoffs and post a winning season? Probably not, but in future years their resurgence will, no doubt, be clearly shown to have begun last Sunday at Arrowhead against the Broncos. We hope.

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