Boris Causes Train Wreck?
We live in strange
times. We may agree that parallels with the American Civil War may
seem over - dramatic and inflated, but can we be sure that this is
so?
A house divided
against itself cannot stand.
I do not expect the
Union to be dissolved -- I do not expect the house to fall -- but I
do expect it will cease to be divided. - Abraham Lincoln
Honest Abe knew
better than he said. The print media is awash with rumours of a
general election as the only way to make Brexit progress. Problem is
the heavyweights of the opposition parties are not really biting on
this foul - tasting option. And Boris has no real prospect of conning
MP s into voting, turkey - like for a Christmas poll. So, he blusters
and fumes whilst the electorate snoozes.
Meanwhile the EU has
agreed an extension, of unspecified length. Sort of.
Fortunately for
Boris never say never can be consigned to the dustbin. Without
batting an eyelid, Jeremy Corbin has seen the light, or has been on
an unscheduled visit to the middle East for a Damascene moment not
including his Hamas pals, as he has agreed to an early general
election. Parliament is currently arguing about the date. It will be
early December - almost certainly.
Hang on the masses
cry, what happened to the fixed term parliament act?
Answer - Parliament
just votes to ignore it-when it suits them - which is pretty much
whenever they like. Clear? I thought not.
The background :
David Cameron had an election which he failed to win, but he did
persuade the Liberal Democrats to join in a coalition so he could
govern. Part of the price he had to pay was the fixed term parliament
act which specified that there has to be a general election every
five years. The Liberal Democrats were thereby assured that he
couldn't pull the rug on them when he thought he could get away with
it. So far so good.
Eventually another
election duly rolls around and, in no small measure owing to their
penchant for climbing into bed with the Tories - along with Dave's
promise to hold a referendum on membership of the EU, the Liberal
Democrats got all the blame for the crap that happened and none of
the credit for anything good. They got slaughtered at the polls and
Cameron got an unexpected overall Tory government. One result of
which was the EU referendum of 2016. Having promised the vote in
order to blind-side the loonies led by Nigel Farage, poor David had
little choice but to deliver.
It remains to be
seen whether Boris may inherit the whirlwind sown by Cameron. For, we
wait to see what Nigel will do. I suspect that the Tories must have
had a nod and a wink from the Brexit party to the effect that some
sort of election pact is going to be available. Maybe a clear run for
Nigel and some of his cronies to swap membership of the EU parliament
for tacit Tory support in some constituencies? Who knows? Update: the
Brexit party has had their launch and Nigel has offered Boris a deal
as I predicted. The Tories are currently saying not on your Nelly.
Can they sustain this position? It all depends on the polls, if they
start to slip Nigel may be back in the game. The campaign is only
five weeks - that's five times longer than the old adage "a week
is a long time in politics". Watch this space.
Why does Mal say
this is most likely? Simples : I can't see how else a Brexit majority
can be conjured after the election. The diatribe from Boris and his
new best buddy Nigel will be that if the voters support Labour, the
Liberal Democrats or anyone else they will get no Brexit at all or
Brino at best.
This could work for
Boris and he's a gambler at heart.
The house divided
may be closer than we think.
Update, we vote on
12 Dec. As I predicted, Nigel has whimped out and done a deal with
Boris. The Brexit Party will not put up candidates in constituencies
where the Tory candidate is a Brexiteer. So, Boris should win. He's
the bookies favourite. We'll see!
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